Credit Suisse Lowers Expectations On Housing


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In a note out Tuesday morning, Credit Suisse analyst Michael Dahl downgraded PulteGroup, Inc. (NYSE: PHM), Meritage Homes Corp (NYSE: MTH) and Ryland Group Inc (NYSE: RYL) to Underperform from Neutral, Taylor Morrison Home Corp (NYSE: TMHC) to Neutral from Outperform, while upping NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR) to Neutral from Underperform.

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Dahl states that, "Despite the declines in the stocks we continue to see the dominant themes of 1) falling gross margins and 2) risk to Texas as creating downside risks to expectations, and as a result don't feel an urgency to own any builders at this time. We are reducing our order ests. to incorporate meaningful slowing in TX/oil-impacted markets with partial offsets elsewhere (better rates/affordability), and tweaking our already below-consensus margin ests. lower, resulting in EPS ests. 11% below consensus in '15 and 20% below in '16.The group still trades at 1.5x our YE'15 book value ests., typically doesn't perform well against falling ests. and often overshoots to the downside."


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Posted In: Analyst ColorUpgradesDowngradesAnalyst RatingsCredit SuisseMichael Dahl