Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst at DailyFX, comments on NFPs


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"Data had begun to turn less bright the past several weeks for the world's largest economy, but no one expected to see a March labor market report of such a poor quality. Literally, not one economist, according to a Bloomberg News survey, forecasted that the US economy would only add +88K jobs last month; the low estimate was +100K. This double-digit print is the worst labor market report since the May NFPs released in June 2012, and it significantly undercut the consensus forecast of +200K. When adding in revisions (February was revised up by +32K, from +236K to +268K), the overall jobs change was -80K, relative to the consensus forecast.At first glance, the Unemployment Rate (U3) statistics appear to be a silver lining to this mess: March's rate fell to 7.6% from 7.7%, beating expectations. Similarly, the Underemployment Rate (U6) – those unemployed who are actively looking for a job, involuntarily part-time workers who want full-time work but have had to settle for part-time work, and marginally attached workers who want and are available for work, but are not actively looking – dropped from 14.3% to 13.8%.On the surface, both of these are indications of a strengthening labor market, but in context of the Participation Rate, which fell to a three-decade low at 63.3%, one thing is clear: Americans are leaving the labor market en masse, essentially giving up on their personal employment prospects after what has been a long period of despair since the global financial crisis started in late-2007. Accordingly, it is evident that the US labor market can no longer be viewed as improving, but instead, just barely treading water."

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