May 14, 2012 7:53 AM | 1 min read
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According to a research report published this morning, J.P. Morgan has upgraded Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: VRTX) from Neutral to Overweight, and raised PT from $45 to $82.In the report, J.P. Morgan commented, "We think there are still a lot of open questions on the strong VX-809 phase 2 data and the opportunity for Vertex in F508del cystic fibrosis (CF). Hence, we spent a lot of time evaluating how much of an NPV contributor VX-809 could really be, especially in the context of a decline in Incivek. What our new NPV analysis tells us is that on a SOTP basis, Incivek (we estimate zero WW sales in 2016e) + Kalydeco + very conservative VX-809 assumptions could be worth a minimum of ~$54/sh (13% downside). However, when adjusting for VX-809 market share and price, we see an aggregate NPV of up to $115/sh (+85% upside), which is after the gap up in VRTX shares last week. Combine this with favorable feedback from CF experts and what looks to be manageable risks for the upcoming combo data in F508del heterozygous CF patients and we find the risk / reward in VRTX shares more compelling."Vertex Pharmaceuticals closed Friday at $62.02.
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