KeyBanc Guarded On An iPhone Demand Recovery: 3 Reasons Why


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


Firsthand checks with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) suppliers point to a stabilization in demand for the smartphone, but also give "little optimism" around a recovery in the near-term, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets. 

The Analyst

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Andy Hargreaves maintained a Sector Weight rating on Apple.

The Thesis

Firsthand checks within Apple's supply chain suggest orders for new iPhone components will be down by at least 10 million units in the back half of 2019 versus the comparable period in 2018, Hargreaves said in a Monday note. (See his track record here.) 

This suggests the potential for a stable outlook, but also implies ongoing weakness through the fiscal 2020 cycle, the analyst said. 


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Apple's core Services business will likely see ongoing deceleration on top of regulatory risk related to potential changes in how the App Store shares its revenue, Hargreaves said. It is "unlikely" Apple will post upside to new services in video, gaming, news and credit due to a lack of any competitive advantage over rival services, he said. 

Due to the absence of any catalysts that point to a recovery in Apple's business, KeyBanc lowered its fiscal 2020 EPS estimate from $12.85 to $12.61. The 2020 revenue estimate was also lowered from $268 billion to $263 billion, partly due to the firm dropping its iPhone average selling price estimate from $738 to $731.

Price Action

Apple shares were up 2.66% at $199.06 at the time of publication Tuesday. 

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Photo courtesy of Apple. 


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


Posted In: Analyst ColorReiterationAnalyst RatingsAndy HargreavesApple ServicesiPhoneKeyBanc Capital Markets