Bank Of America: Apple Installed Base Holds 'Large Room' For Upside


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Following the release of new Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) products, Bank of America Merrill Lynch tackled the apparent discrepancy between growth in the iPhone installed base versus Apple's unit growth.

The Analyst

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Analyst Wamsi Mohan maintained a Neutral rating on Apple with a $220 price objective.

The Thesis

Installed base data serves as a key indicator for Apple's growth, Mohan said in a Tuesday note. (See his track record here.)

The analyst pointed to the following factors:

  • The size of the global iPhone installed base and its compound annual growth rate over the past two years.
  • Future growth in sales.
  • An increase in installed base, which should drive serves and sales of incremental devices.
  • The expansion of replacement cycle in direct response to installed base growth.
  • Secondary market growth, which presents a significant services opportunity.

“As growth migrates to the secondary market, which we view as more price conscious consumers, we view a lower initial services attach. We estimate only 10-20-percent of the 1.5-billion overall installed base is paying for services," the analyst said.


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"The positive is that there is large room for upside, but the negative is that the secondary market will likely take a long time to change lower spending patterns.”

China’s contribution remains crucial, as the country's iPhone installed base has grown at a 7-percent CAGR year-over-year, Mohan said.

At the end of this year, the Chinese iPhone installed base will nearly rival that of Europe, he said: "This can likely be explained by the longer replacement cycle in China."

Price Action

Apple shares were down 2.56 percent at $181.10 at time of publication Tuesday.

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Photo courtesy of Apple.


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Posted In: Analyst ColorPrice TargetReiterationTop StoriesAnalyst RatingsTechBank of America Merrill Lynchinstalled baseiPhoneWamsi Mohan