BofA Turns Bearish On Aegon, Cites Potential Long-Term Care Squeeze, Dividend Limitations


27% profits every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his options buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads... BUYING options. Most traders don't even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here's how he does it.


Shares of the Dutch company Aegon N.V. (ADR) (NYSE:AEG) have outperformed American and European peers since the start of 2018, but Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees two risks in the stock that led to a downgrade Friday. 

The Analyst

BofA's Michael van Wegen downgraded Aegon from Neutral to Underperform with a price target lowered from $5.90 to $5.40.

The Thesis

Since the start of 2018, Aegon's stock outperformed peers by 5-10 percent, which implies the P/E discount to the sector has now been reduced to 20 percent, van Wegen said in the downgrade note. The stock's price offers a 5.1-percent dividend yield, which is short of the 5.3-percent industry average.

Aegon faces two notable risks, the analyst said:

  • Aegon's long-term care insurance business is the sixth-largest in the market, but the relatively old age of its policyholders implies minimal flexibility to increase premiums at a time when the company's premiums and reserves per policy are "relatively low," van Wegen said. The company could face a potential reserve deficiency of $1 billion to $3.6 billion, which translates to 50-173 percent of risk-based capital.
  • Aegon's quality of capital will likely impact its ability to increase its dividend payout, the analyst said. 

Price Action

Aegon shares were down 3.34 percent at the time of publication Friday afternoon.

Related Links:

3 Ways Amazon Could Transform Health Care

Morgan Stanley: Health Care M&A Means Headwinds For Hospitals


27% profits every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his options buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads... BUYING options. Most traders don't even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here's how he does it.


ENTER TO WIN $500 IN STOCK OR CRYPTO

Enter your email and you'll also get Benzinga's ultimate morning update AND a free $30 gift card and more!

Posted In: Analyst ColorDowngradesPrice TargetAnalyst RatingsBank of AmericaInsurancelong term careMichael van Wegen