Weaker Retail Sales Support BoE's Dovish Policy Outlook


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The UK retail sales increased 0.3 percent month-over-month beating the market forecast of 0.1 percent m/m while core retail sales excluding motor fuel fell -0.3 percent MoM in October. Non-food stores, in particular, second-hand goods stores, provided the largest contribution to the growth.

Looking at the structure of the retail sales report, the non-store retailing rose 0.8 percent year-over-year while food items rose 0.3 percent YoY and non-food items rose 0.5 percent YoY. Thi is indicating the weight moving towards online retailing that represents 17 percent of all retail sales in the UK and it rose 10.9 percent over the year in October.

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With retail sales decelerating from the previous year, the Bank of England may become even more dovish than it is right now.

Consumers are being squeezed by higher inflation in the UK and the nominal wages are also subdued, causing retail sales to stagnate.

With inflation at 3.0 percent over the year in October and nominal wages rising 2.2 percent over the year at the same time, real, inflation-adjusted income of households turns negative resulting in a reluctance of households to spend. In the uncertain environment of Brexit negotiations and negative real wage growth, decelerating or falling retail sales are a logic result.

Even with inflation rate is seen decelerating after the Brexit-related Sterling depreciation effect will dissipate, the UK may struggle with higher wages as the employment fell 225K in August-September period according to the latest report from the Office for National Statistics.

The growth is seen slowing down next year and for that reason, the Bank of England is unlikely to push for another rate hike, especially not until Brexit negotiations will result in some concrete measures. With the Bank of England projecting two rate hikes in next three years in November Inflation report, both might as well fit into 2019 only and 2018 will be kept afloat with the Bank rate at 0.50 percent.


27% profit every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


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