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The EUR/USD is having a tough time holding above 1.16 handle.
1-hour chart
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The upswings of this pair are being restrained around 1.1620 since Monday. Add to that, the failed inverse head and shoulders breakout on the 1-hour chart, and the prospects of an up-move start looking grimmer.
Furthermore, the 5-day MA and 10-day MA favor the bears as well (slope downwards). So, it is logical to expect a drop to 1.15 (psychological level + falling channel support).
However, it is easier said than done-
- The leading indicator, RSI, is flatlined below 50.00 on the dailies and holds above the 50.00 levels on the weekly terms, which is a "call for caution" for aggressive bears.
- On the 1-hour chart, the 50-MA and 200-MA have bottomed out as well, hence a failed inverse head and shoulders breakout may not yield serious consequences. On the daily chart, the 100-MA is still sloping upwards.
- It is worth noting that the dips below 1.1570 have been short-lived since Oct. 27. Furthermore, the dollar index is having a tough time breaching the key descending trendline hurdle as discussed earlier today. Also, the treasury yield curve has turned flattest since Oct. 31, 2007, which is USD negative.
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A quick drop to the 1.15 handle is necessary to keep the bears in the game. The longer the time taken to fall below 1.1570, the higher the odds of a bullish move to the downward sloping weekly 200-MA level of 1.1660 and weekly 5-MA level of 1.1682.
As noted, the weekly 200-MA favors the bears (sloping downwards), thus potential spikes above the same are likely to be short-lived.
On the downside, an end of the day close below 1.15 would mark a bearish breakdown of the falling channel and shall open up downside towards 1.13-1.12 levels.
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.