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Legendary investors Jim Rogers and Marc Faber have similar outlooks on the financial crisis and the efforts of the Federal Reserve to revive the U.S. economy. What do they think of the Fed's quantitative easing policy? In a word, it is a recipe for disaster.
According to Rogers, governments have not addressed the underlying problems which triggered the crisis, but instead have "flooded the world with money." He argues that trying to solve the problem of too much consumption and too much debt with more consumption "defies belief," and will result in epic failure.
Faber's outlook echoes the sentiments of Mr. Rogers. He says, "If we agree that excessive credit and excessive leverage led to the crisis, then what the Federal Reserve is doing is giving a wrong medicine to the patient—they are giving the drug addicts more drug instead of sending them to rehabilitation, which is not good for the economy. So I think that the whole policy will eventually end in another disaster but we don’t know when and many things can happen in between."
So where do Faber and Rogers see opportunity? Well, both are extremely bullish on agricultural commodities and companies. Rogers says that it will be farmers not bankers driving Ferraris in the coming decades. Faber likens investing in agriculture to investing in oil in 2001 or 2002.
If you are interested in a fairly simple and straightforward way to act on the advice of Rogers and Faber, the PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (NYSE: DBA) tracks the price of corn, soybeans, sugar, and wheat. Another way to take advantage of a surge in commodity prices in the coming years is to invest in managed futures or buy currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars which are linked to the price of commodities. This can also be done with ETFs. The Australian Dollar Trust ETF is ticker symbol (NYSE: FXA) and the Canadian Dollar Trust ETF is ticker symbol (NYSE: FXC).
You could buy a farm, also, and plant stuff.
Outstanding analysis. Two of the most successful investors of all time. The Govt/FED/Politicians hate these guys because it takes the buying and spending power away from them which they use to buy votes and play Robin Hood with.
And....there is a distinct possiblity that changes in the sunspot cylce can cause global cooling, thereby increasing the value of agriculture.
http://www.davidarchibald.info/
so this is a good gamble for a number of reasons, also we are certainly not in a bubble now and have been on the downside lately. we may be at a bottom, a terrific opportunity right now!
The ETF MOO has been a much better performer than DBA. Stay away from futures markets.
There are also several mid-sized Chinese agriculture plays that should produce hefty gains in 2010. CGA, CAGC, etc.
My agriculture picks, portfolio and newsletter are available here: