Stifel’s Aaron C. Rakers stated that the “analysis of the various highly correlated monthly iPhone data points” tracked through the quarter indicate an implied iPhone sell-thru in the low-70 million range for 2017's fiscal first quarter.
Rakers maintains a Hold rating on Apple Inc. AAPL, with a price target of $115.
Estimates Cut
Based on an analysis of iPhone demand data points over the past three months, the revenue estimate for FQ1:17 has been lowered from $76.7 billion to $76.0 billion, while the EPS estimate has been reduced from $3.23 to $3.16, with both estimates now below the consensus.
The estimates reflect iPhone shipments of 73.4 million, a decline from the prior estimate of 76.7 million.
“We also reduce our F2Q17 and F3Q17 estimates to reflect flat y/y iPhone ship trends, which does reflect easing compares; however, we slightly increase our F2018 and F2019 estimates on increased iPhone 8 cycle optimism,” Rakers mentioned.
iPhone 8 Expectations
The analyst expects Apple to provide initial production estimate for the iPhone 8 in July-August, and stated that an estimate of 90 million should be considered positive, given that historical figures and Street models suggest a range of 80–85 million.
While investors now expect a high-end AMOLED display for the iPhone 8, Rakers believes that “Apple's possible integration of 3D sensing in the next-gen iPhones could be considered a killer app and provide renewed confidence in Apple's innovation engine.”
The analyst estimated the iPhone installed base at 700 million, and a 30 percent pre-iPhone 8 installed base upgrade would equate to 210 million iPhones or 70 percent of the total iPhone shipment estimate for December 2017-December 2018.
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Date | ticker | name | Actual EPS | EPS Surprise | Actual Rev | Rev Surprise |
---|
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.