Notable Metals Analyst Tempers Outlook On Gold, Silver Amid Fed's Rate Hike Cycle
While the attention of most of the financial world is now focused on the plummeting stock market, RBC Capital Markets recently released a report with their updated forecast for the gold and silver market. Conventional wisdom says that safety plays such as precious metals outperform during periods of stock market weakness.
However, in the report, analyst Stephen Walker lowered his price targets for both gold and silver through 2018.
Pressure From Fed
According to the report, RBC believes that the FOMC rate hike in a weak inflationary environment will pressure gold and silver prices. RBC reduced its Q4 2015 forecast for gold from $1,300/oz to $1,150/oz, a 12 percent reduction.
For silver, RBC scaled back its Q42015 forecast by 15 percent, from $18.00/oz to $15.25/oz.
The forecast cuts extend all the way out to 2018. RBC lowered its 2018 gold forecast by 7 percent to $1,300/oz and its 2018 silver forecast by 12 percent to $19/oz.
For the remainder of this year, Walker expects volatility in both the gold and silver markets, and he sees seasonal buying as a source of support in the near-term.
“In our view, a deferral of a September Fed rate hike or an increase in systemic risk (1) within the Eurozone through a resurgence of the Greek economic risk or (2) further Chinese devaluation of the RMB, could also result in a firmer gold price,” he adds.
Despite the reduced price expectations, RBC remains bullish on several gold and silver stocks.
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