Morgan Stanley: The Biotech Stock With The Most Upside In 2015

In its recent annual Big Debates report, Morgan Stanley named Biogen Idec Inc. BIIB as its top large-cap biotech stock pick for 2015. Analysts are impressed with Biogen’s robust drug pipeline and feel that very little of the company’s potential is currently priced into the stock.
The pipeline
Anaysts see at least five drugs in Biogen’s pipeline that could contribute to the company’s future valuation. Morgan Stanley sees about $60 per share of value in BIIB037, an anti Aβ-human monoclonal antibody that Biogen is testing as a treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease and acute optic neuritis (AON).
Biogen is also expecting data in 2015 on its drug Tysabri, which is currently being tested for treatment of patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis.
The projections
At around $343 per share, Biogen stock is already up more than 22 percent this year.

Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Harrison argues for a base case of $395 per share, a 15 percent premium to current levels. “We believe consensus’ apparent apathy toward the pipeline creates significant upside risk for Biogen.”
Based on 2015 earnings projections, Biogen is currently priced in-line with rival Amgen Inc AMGN, which is growing at a much slower rate. On the other hand, competitor Celgene Corp CELG, which shares a similar growth rate as Biogen, trades at a much higher projected P/E ratio.
The future
Moving forward, Morgan Stanley believes that Biogens “diversified and durable” earnings base will continue to provide stability for the company.

Investors will not have to wait long for a big potential catalyst for the stock, as Phase II data from the AON study is expected in January, 2015.