27% profit every 20 days?
This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.
Nearly every year a team who finished last place in their division, wins their division the following year. The ‘worst to first’ phenomenon has given basement-dwelling franchises hope for at least the past two decades. Since 2002, only twice (2014, 2019) have all eight last-place division finishers, failed to win a divisional crown the following year.
While that news is great for fans of the perpetually terrible Detroit Lions, how does that help casual gamblers and degenerates? Well, even recognizing the trend takes us halfway there. Consider the following:
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- 2020’s last-place divisional finishers were: 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, Lions, Broncos, Jaguars, Jets, Bengals
- 2021’s division champions were: Bills, Bengals, Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Buccaneers, Rams
- Bengals were the lone ‘worst to first,’ however, the Eagles finished 2nd, and the 49ers finished just 2 games back
- 2021 Pre-season odds* for 2020s last-place divisional finishers were as follows:
- 49ers (+200 )
- Falcons (+900 )
- Eagles (+500 )
- Lions (+2500 )
- Broncos (+600 )
- Jaguars (+800 )
- Jets (+2200 )
- Bengals (+2500 )
*Odds listed were betting odds AFTER the 2021 pre-season.
If you want to capitalize on the trend that has hit 90% of the time over the past two decades, you should bet on one of last year's divisional last-place finishers, to win their division this year. Your options include:
- Jets (+1800)
- Ravens (+165)
- Jaguars (+700)
- Broncos (+260)
- Giants (+700)
- Lions (+900)
- Panthers (+1200)
- Seahawks (+1000)
*Odds via BetMGM as of 6/20/22
Vegas seems to have gotten wise, as the odds aren’t as favorable as last year. You may notice that none of the teams listed have the same odds (+2500) as last year’s Bengals did.
Aside from the Ravens, who are actually the favorites right now, it may seem like there are no solid options - either to win outright or with fantastic odds. Things fluctuate and odds, as they currently stand, are not what they will be in August.
Consider this though, in 2021, $800 spent, placing a $100 bet on each of the previous year's worst place finishers, to win the division, would have left you with $2600 at year’s end. Now, it's unclear if 2022 will have its own version of the Cincinnati Bengals, but the potential exists for one of the teams to come out on top.
If you were to place $100 on each of last year’s last-place finishers to win the division this year, you would need the Panthers, Seahawks, Lions, or Jets to win their division outright. To replicate 2021’s gambling success, you’d need a combination of two to three teams to make the leap.
While there are no surefire outcomes in sports or gambling, a bet on divisional futures is an option to consider.
27% profit every 20 days?
This is what Nic Chahine averages with his option buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.