SPX has been in an uptrending move since June 4, 2012. Currently price is forming a wedge on the day chart, this is derived from higher highs and higher lows but in a contraction formation. Interesting that an intraday perspective also shows a wedge formation.
Typically a wedge formation after a trend is a signal of change of that trend. Of course there are no guarantees, only a probability, but then again, probabilities is the best way to look at a trading scenario. The moment I become convinced that a market or instrument “HAS” to behave a certain way, it finds a way to humble me and even though it can be painful, it has helped me to seek more than one scenario and become more mechanical versus emotional with the outcome.
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The day chart shows its wedge is approaching the apex, and that if price holds inside the wedge, a pullback will be minimal in relation to previous pullbacks, unless it creates the break down of the consolidation. So 1925.88 is the initial level to either hold or push through, if so, the targets are 1973.72, 2017.07 and 2072.20. However, if price pulls back to test the wedge support line, currently it correlates with a rising moving average, in this case a 20 sma and a GRZ marked as Key Level, this will be important whether price holds there or not, a breakdown there has the ideal target of 1756.09 and points of interest or scaling points at 1856.96 and 1814.36.
The intraday perspective, I’m using an STRenko 35 bar size, shows price is also inside a wedge, though not as extreme of an angle as the day chart. What is indicative of contraction is opposing emerging harmonic patterns and the completion of one of these patterns will help price break out of the intraday wedge, then increases the probability of breaking the daily wedge. The wedge trendlines are the initial levels to break and hold, but keep in mind these lines could be breached to test nearby Line In The Sand levels, these represent an invalidation of one of the patterns and the color is coordinated, ie 1925.88 Sig Lvl- Line in Sand is colored brown, this represents the maximum that price can go to keep the brown colored pattern in play and above 1925.88 invalidates it, wipes it clean out and it is at that time I would erase that scenario from my chart.
So watch for the intraday wedge or the Line In The Sand levels to break and hold to offer an increased probability in the daily perspective.
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