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For a broader look at the significance of a bullish signal from the "Dumb Money" indicator, please check out the following article from March, 2009: "Putting a Bullish Signal Context". In general, when sentiment is bearish, gains in the stock market occur at an accelerated rate. In essence, betting against the consensus can yield significant gains with minimal market exposure. However, there is no "holy grail", and risks remain as failed signals can lead to spectacular losses.
Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the InsiderScore "entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "In many respects last week was very similar to the previous week. Buyers outnumbered sellers by a wide margin, but to a much smaller degree when the Financial sector is removed from the equation. The difference between the two weeks was in the conviction shown by buyers - there was less of it during the most recent period."
Figure 4 is a weekly chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds. When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall.
Crypto Whales Are Loading Up — Are You?
New research shows the biggest crypto buyers are back. And this time? They could hold for the possibility that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 in 2024. You don’t want to miss the next massive crypto bull run like we saw in 2020 and 2021. To know exactly what’s going on and what to buy… Get Access To Benzinga’s Best Crypto Research and Investments For Only $1.