Traders Are Bearish For 2016
The markets had quite a start to the new year, falling 1.6 percent on Monday.
It was the worst drop since 2008 and sixth-worst drop since 1932. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial Average were both down more than 2 percent at one point on Monday, but recovered by the closing bell. The fall in Chinese markets was the big reason for the broad selloff.
"The 1.5 percent drop was just slightly greater than the average 1.1 percent move in either direction on previous opening days, when big moves are common. On all other days, the S&P 500 had average daily swings of 0.77 percent," noted Bloomberg.
For 2015, both the Dow and S&P 500 had annual losses for the first time since 2008 (the Dow finished even in 2011). So how are traders and investors feeling about 2016? Benzinga conducted a Twitter poll to find out.
Asked to vote either bearish (-5 percent) or bullish (+5 percent), 61 percent of voters said they are bearish on the next 52 weeks.
— Benzinga.com (@Benzinga) January 4, 2016
One user responded, "LOL I might be calling it quits & flee the country like many other moguls." Another said there is "more pain ahead for Bulls. First quarter will not be pretty."
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE: SPY) closed down 1.4 percent at $201.01 on Monday and was down about 0.5 percent in Tuesday's pre-market session.
Back in 2014, Benzinga noted that, “Over the past 25 years, full-year performances have correlated with January 64 percent of the time. In years where January posted gains (16 of 25), the market continued upward 81.25 percent of the time. However, a weak January (9 of 25) correlates with continued losses just 22.22 percent of the time.”
The analysis continued: “In short, a strong correlation with positive first month returns coupled with very weak correlation with negative first month returns paints a pretty picture for bulls: regardless of January, the market moves higher.”
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