6 Trends Moving The NFL Stock Market
While the stock market closes every Friday at 4pm Eastern, there are several ways to trade during the weekend. Here's a breakdown of the NFL, courtesy of Tradesports.com.
In the midst of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs, Tradesports' season-long Super Bowl trading market (where users trade stocks with prices based on teams' odds to win the Super Bowl) is heating up.
But what were the biggest moves of the season? Let's take a look.
1. The Seahawks’ 6-Game Winning Streak Resulted In A Strong, Positive Swing
The league's defending champions, the Seattle Seahawks, began the season with a very average 6-4 record, and the crowd lost confidence that the team would repeat its Super Bowl victory. The team's stock traded all the way down to 4 percent before steadily rising up to 27 percent where it's currently trading. (Remember, that indicates more than a quarter of the market believes the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl.)
The majority of this move was due to a six-game winning streak to end the regular season.
A victory against Carolina on Saturday will likely mean that this stock price will rise somewhere in the low-to-mid 30s, while a loss means it will expire at 0.
2. The Broncos Were Super Bowl Favorites…Until The Second Half
The Denver Broncos were Super Bowl favorites up until the middle of the season, trading as high as 24 percent. The crowd, however, has recently lost faith in the team. It's trading at 12 percent after a second-half decline.
One of the reasons for this may be the regression of quarterback Peyton Manning. In the team’s last five games, he threw just 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while passing over 300 yards just once in that span.
A win could result in a small stock price boost, but not by an overwhelming margin if the Patriots move on to the AFC Championship Game.
3. Tom Brady Is Too Old, The Patriots Aren’t Good…Oh Wait, Never Mind
Remarkably, the Patriots’ stock traded as low as 3 percent this season. When the Pats lost to the Kansas City Chiefs 41-14 on Monday Night Football, many pundits said Tom Brady was too old to compete at an elite level. Heck, the media even predicted the Bills or Dolphins to win the AFC East.
Well, those days are over.
After Brady and the Patriots established themselves as arguably the best team in the NFL and went 7-1 at home in the process, the team's stock trades among the league leaders. A loss expires the stock at 0, while a victory likely means Pats stock will likely trade in the low-to-mid 30s. If the Indianapolis Colts beat the Broncos, that upside could be even higher.
4. Aaron Rodgers And The Packers Gained Ground Over The Season
Aaron Rodgers might very well be the NFL’s MVP for the elite numbers he put up this season. After throwing 38 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions, along with a 112.2 rating, Rodgers captured the confidence of the crowd in Tradesports' Super Bowl market as well.
The Packers’ stock price has gradually increased, though the Seahawks' six-game win streak pushed prices to level out near the end of the season. Trading at 20 percent of late, news of Rodgers’ torn calf muscle appears to have pushed Pack shares down to 15 percent, despite the likelihood he'll play.
5. The Colts Have Been (And Still Are) Confusing
The Colts defense plays like two different teams when playing at home versus on the road, and are an incredibly tough unit to project. Andrew Luck and the passing attack are the best in the NFL in terms of touchdowns and yardage, but the lack of a running game and a difference-making defense is concerning and reflected in the graph below.
A dominating win over the Broncos would likely dampen these concerns, but it’s highly unlikely, as the Colts defense has given up near 11 more points per game on the road this season than at home. A win could also result in a stock price boost, but it likely wouldn't be enormous, given a possible next-round matchup against the Patriots in New England.
6. The ‘Boys Are For Real
At the beginning of the season, it would have been ludicrous to think the Dallas Cowboys would make the playoffs, let alone being a game away from the NFC Championship Game. Projected to have the worst defense in NFL history by many analysts, Dallas’ defense has played well, Tony Romo has been an elite-level quarterback, and running back DeMarco Murray had a record-breaking season.
A victory would pit Dallas against the winner of the Seahawks-Panthers game. An interesting note: Dallas was the only team in 2014 to go into Seattle and beat the Seahawks. This may be the reason the Cowboys' stock price is within 4 to 5 points of Seattle.
Learn more about Tradesports.com, a fantasy sports stock market, here.
Image credit: Larry Maurer, Wikimedia
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