Consumer Confidence Falls in June for the Fourth Consecutive Month

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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is an indicator intended to measure consumer confidence in the United States, which is classified as the level of optimism for the general economic condition of the country. This index is expressed through consumer's activities of savings and spending. The Consumer Confidence Index rose to 62.0 in June, slightly lower than economists' estimates of 63.0, and lower than May's revised reading of 64.4. This could be interpreted as bearish for the outlook of the U.S. economy, as the consumer makes up two-thirds of gross domestic product. U.S. equity markets saw little reaction after the release. According to the
Conference Board's report
, the Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in May, fell further in June. The Expectations Index declined to 72.3 from 77.3. The Present Situation Index, however, increased to 46.6 from 44.9 last month. Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at the Conference Board said, "Consumer confidence declined in June, the fourth consecutive moderate decline. Consumers were somewhat more positive about current conditions, but slightly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook." "Income expectations, which had improved last month, declined in June. If this trend continues, spending may be restrained in the short-term. The improvement in the Present Situation Index, coupled with a moderate softening in consumer expectations, suggests there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term," Franco continued. Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved slightly in June. Those claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 14.9% from 13.6%. However, those saying business conditions are "bad" increased to 35.1% from 34.7%. Consumers' appraisal of the job market was mixed. Those stating jobs are "hard to get" increased to 41.5% from 40.9%, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 7.8% from 7.5%.

ACTION ITEMS:

Traders who believe that the Consumer Confidence Index is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy might want to consider the following trades:
  • Short general retail companies like JCPenney JCP because as consumers continue to lose confidence about their situations, the less likely consumers will spend their residual income.
  • Short big-ticket appliance makers like Whirlpool WHR for similar reasons.
  • Long staple companies like Procter & Gamble PG and Colgate CL because, even if less people are confident about economic outlook, they still need to buy staple products like shampoo and toothpaste.
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
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