Market Overview

Check out the Chart: Not the man of Steel


When the bulls are in control of the stock market and the broader economy is thriving, creating jobs and all that good stuff, being involved with the stocks and ETFs with heavy exposure to economic news is a good thing. In that vein, one of the first items on an investor's shopping list should be a steel stock or ETF like the Market Vectors Steel ETF (NYSE: SLX).

Unfortunately, the scenario just outlined is the complete opposite of the real world today. Bullish sentiment toward riskier assets is hard to find these days, and at best, economic data points in the U.S. have been hit or miss.

Those are fundamental problems for the Market Vectors Steel ETF, but fundamental woes often beget technical issues and SLX is suffering from an acute case of both fundamental and technical “diseases” at the moment.

Checking out SLX's chart tells us as much. Simply put, the fall of the Market Vectors Steel ETF from its April high over $75 has been staggering. The ETF now resides in the $45 neighborhood, but there were tells this was coming.

If the aforementioned tepid economic data did not signal big trouble ahead for SLX, a recent technical scenario did. The ETF's July and August highs both fell short of the April high and since August, it has been off to the basement for SLX.

As if the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day line in June wasn't bad enough, SLX would then tumble below the 50- and 20-day lines. Now the ETF is roughly 10% removed from the 20-day moving average and almost twice that away from the 50-day.

About the best prognosis that can be offered for SLX right now is that there is a strong cluster of support in the $41-$43 area and the ETF has bounced off that. Range traders can probably get in here and play a move to resistance at $50, also the 20-day MA. Asking for a move to $55 is asking a lot and that would only occur with a sudden turn in employment, GDP and other critical economic numbers. For now, just check out SLX's chart and treat the ETF as the technical play that it is.

Posted-In: Long Ideas News Sector ETFs Short Ideas Technicals Commodities Econ #s Economics


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