Checking In: Don't Cry For Argentina

They say in life timing is everything and assuming that adage is true, then it probably explains some things about the Global X Argentina ETF

, the first ETF devoted to the rapidly growing South American economy. ARGT made its debut in early March and excluding a nice run in April, the ETF's price action has been lethargic, but that is probably a symptom of the struggles faced by emerging markets ETFs as an asset class, not structural issues with ARGT or a bearish view on Argentina itself. At nearly four months old, it's fair to say ARGT's assets under management ($5.05 million) and average daily volume (almost 6,400 shares) are OK for a new ETF and both numbers would probably be better if not for a weak broader market. Near-term hurdles aside, ARGT might just have something to offer for the more patient investor, but it takes some work to see Argentina's worth as an investment thesis for several reasons. First, particularly in the ETF world, Argentina is overshadowed by Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru. Second, Argentina's economic collapse (1999-2002) is still fresh on many investors' minds. Third, Argentina is not an emerging market. It is classified as a frontier market and that increases the country's risk profile in the eyes of investors. Still, numbers are numbers and it is hard to escape the fact that Argentina's GDP grew by 9.9% in the first quarter. From Wells Fargo: “Personal consumption expenditures surged by 11.1 percent in real terms compared to the year earlier quarter, while government consumption expenditures contributed its share by growing at a 9.9 percent rate. But, one of the most important gauges of future economic activity also posted a very strong growth rate. Gross fixed investment increased by 19.5 percent during the quarter after growing by 21.2 percent during all of 2010. Thus, growth is expected to continue to remain strong for the rest of the year.” Argentina has had a history of political instability in the past, but President Cristina Kirchner is a pro-business politician and will likely be reelected with ease in October, which is another way of saying when it comes to politics, one should probably prefer ARGT to the iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund

. Looking at the chart, ARGT can be bought above $14.50, but below $15 with a stop at $13.75 and an ambitious year-end target of $16 or higher.