Juncker: Euro Overvalued

As a German official questioned a second Greek bailout on Monday, the EUR/USD slips but still holds near its 1-month high. This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release its policy decision, which is likely to have a heavy influence on EUR/USD. The euro steepened its decline after Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of euro-zone finance ministers, said the common currency was overvalued relative to other major currencies, according to The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. dollar had high resistance near its one-month low against a basket of currencies. Friday's jobs data also indicates that U.S. interest rate will stay low for longer. “Short-term momentum indicators pointed to more euro/dollar gains, but this was due to the dollar generating strong bearish momentum rather than a notable improvement in euro sentiment,” James Hellawell, BNP Paribas quantitative currency strategist said in Reuters. Traders might wish to consider that ECB still holds a cautious outlook ahead of a rate decision later this week. “The economic outlook of the euro-area remains week,” ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio delivered a speech in Italy, “the region needs increased coordination to address the sovereign debt crisis.” However, the ECB doesn't believe a restructuring of ailing Greece's public debt would be productive, so long as the country enacts the promised stringent reforms. “Our economic governance framework has so far not managed to guarantee the implementations of sound policies in all member states,” Mr. Trichet said Monday in Montreal on the opening day of the 17th annual Economic Forum of the Americas, “Countries in the euro area that violate our common rules should be accountable for their policies, and freedom of action and flexibility in this field should be reduced as much as possible.” The U.S. currency's value will stay unchanged from current levels by year-end, according to Bloomberg. “The dollar's rebound is not a turning point in the bear trend,” said John Normand, head of currency strategy in London at JPMorgan Chase & Co., “A sustained dollar rally requires a Greek default, a global recession or aggressive Fed tightening. And those are not likely to happen this year.” At the time of writing, the euro traded within 0.5 percent of a one-month high against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet showed his willingness to sanction bond rollovers in Greece, according to Bloomberg.