New Cyclical Bull Underway in Gold Stocks

Three weeks ago we wrote that the short-term outlook in precious metals was bullish. Quoting our conclusion: “The bottom line is this sector is very close to a breakout which would likely confirm the May bottom. The price action has started to improve and the sector has not been deterred by the aforementioned bad news which, in normal conditions would have caused a selloff. In the meantime, the public has been bearish the entire year and the dumb money has started to exit the market. It is this combination of factors that lead us to a firm bullish posture over the rest of the summer.” In terms of weekly closing prices, GDX and SIL closed last week at a four month high, while GDXJ closed last week at a three month high. Silver closed at a four month high while Gold closed at a five month high. From that it would seem that these markets are overbought. However, a quick study of the long-term charts, sentiment and valuations confirms that we are in an absolute sweet spot. Markets have bottomed, a new cyclical bull has begun and there is substantial room to move over the coming months and year.

The confirmation of the bottom is obvious. Now what? Well, the question is if the sector will continue to zoom higher similar to 2005 and 2009 or if it will consolidate for months (similar to 1972 and 1977) before making a parabolic advance in less than two years. In any event, that is just semantics and for the hyper traders out there. In either scenario we are early in a new cyclical bull and there is tremendous opportunity to be had. If you’d be interested in our professional guidance in uncovering the equities poised for big gains, then we invite you to learn more about our service.