S&P 500 Braces For Triple Witching As Financials Signal Deeper Correction: Index Closed Up 'Only 25% Of The Time' In Last 5-Years

Rishabh Mishra — Wed, 18 Mar 2026 11:42:25 +0000

The S&P 500 index will enter the coming Friday's “triple witching” session under immense technical duress, as a breakdown in financial stocks and a historically bearish expiration cycle threaten to accelerate the current market correction.

The Triple Witching Statistical Trap

This Friday, March 20, marks the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, and index futures—a quarterly event known for extreme volume and “exaggerated” price action.

Data from Stephanie Guild, Chief Investment Officer at Robinhood Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD), show a pronounced negative bias in the benchmark index during this window.

Over the last five years, the S&P 500 “had a positive session only 25% of the time,” posting a median return of -0.36% compared to +0.10% on regular days.

Beyond derivatives expiring, the day also serves as an S&P 500 rebalance, forcing index funds to execute massive “cleanup” trades. Guild notes that while broader narratives still matter, investors should expect volumes to surge more than 3x the daily average.

This Friday, March 20, is a ...

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