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PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

The Japanese yen fell Wednesday to a 34-year low against the dollar, which is a boon for exporters, but imports are more expensive.

US Companies In Japan Wary On Market Intervention As Yen Hits 34-Year Low Vs. Dollar

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PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund

USD/JPY fell 2.6% after BoJ Governor Ueda suggested ending negative interest rate policy.

Dollar Dives Vs. Yen: BoJ Governor Signals End In Sight For Negative Interest Rates

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WisdomTree Trust Japan Total Dividend Fund

FLJH

Kuroda Enters Second Term: Japan ETFs In Focus

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U.S. commodity exporters and pharmaceutical companies are among the top traders, with Japan casting a cautious eye toward the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/foreign-exchange">foreign exchange markets, in the coming days</a>.
Top exporters with significant Japanese interests include Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>).
The weak yen which, on Wednesday, fell to a 34-year low against the dollar, has been a boon for Japanese exporters, but it makes the country&#8217;s imports more expensive. 
But it&#8217;s a stable economy with low — almost non-existent — levels of inflation, which make it an attractive investment location for many U.S. companies.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37915082/magnificent-7-stocks-become-the-star-attractions-for-norways-sovereign-wealth-fund">Magnificent 7 Stocks Become The Star Attractions For Norway&#8217;s Sovereign Wealth Fund</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Supporting The Yen In The FX Market?</h2>
However, Japanese monetary authorities could be about to throw confusion into the dealings between the two countries, as there&#8217;s talk of market intervention by the Bank of Japan to prop up the ailing yen.
Earlier this month the BoJ raised its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years. Edging the rate from -0.1% to a range between 0% to 0.1%, it barely caused a stir on the markets. Notification a few weeks earlier that the BoJ was to take a more hawkish stance at its upcoming meeting had a more significant impact.
But the yen resumed its drop against the dollar and, this morning, the dollar climbed to 151.97, a low for the yen not seen since 1990.
Thus, speculation of intervention has been increasing over the past few days. 
&#8220;The risk of intervention increases as the dollar approaches 155,&#8221; said analysts at Bank of America. But, as they pointed out, &#8220;intervention is not a fundamental fix for the yen.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Blocking Short Sellers</h2>
Indeed, in previous bouts of intervention, it has mainly been used to cause confusion and headaches for short sellers and those indulging in the carry trade — where low-yielding currencies such as the yen are sold to fund purchases of higher-yielding currencies.
It also causes headaches for those U.S. companies doing business in Japan, which also include drugmakers such as Eli Lilly &amp; Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>), as wild fluctuations in foreign exchange make it harder for them to forecast returns to investors from overseas operations. 
Jane Foley, chief FX strategist at Rabobank, noted an increase in net short sellers last week.
She added: &#8220;In an environment of low FX volatility, carry trades tend to be attractive. In the absence of a strong expectation of a series of rate rises from the BoJ, betting against the dollar could be an expensive trade for many speculators. 
&#8220;This explains the sell-off in the yen this week after the BoJ's rate hike.&#8221;
Thus, even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has yet to announce its timing for a first-rate cut — although the market knows it&#8217;s coming — the dollar retains the upper hand on the yen due to its large rate differential, with the main U.S, rate still at 5.25%-5.5%.
Exchange traded funds that follow bullish bets on the dollar have gained since the start of 2024. The Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) is up 4.5% on the year. 
Conversely, the best-performing yen-based ETF has been the ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YCS#NYSE">YCS</a>), which tracks shorting behaviour on the Japanese currency. It has gained 18.4% in 2024.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/03/37956811/russell-2000-vs-s-p-500-turning-tide-for-small-caps-risk-reward-trade-off-is-very-skewed">Russell 2000 Vs. S&amp;P 500: Turning Tide For Small Caps? &#8216;Risk-Reward Trade-Off Is Very Skewed&#8217;</a>
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The U.S. dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen on Thursday as foreign exchange traders interpreted comments by Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda to suggest the central bank will soon end its negative interest rate policy.
The U.S. currency fell 2.6% against the yen (USD/JPY) in early trading on Thursday. The yen also gained strongly versus other rivals, climbing 2.4% against the euro and 2.7% on the U.K. pound.
Exchange traded funds that track both long and short positions on the yen were also big movers. ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YCS#NYSE">YCS</a>) fell 3.7%, while the ProShares Ultra Yen (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YCL#NYSE">YCL</a>), which tracks bullish interest, surged 3.5% early trading on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Invesco US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) was down 0.2% in early trading, while the Invesco US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UDN#NYSE">UDN</a>) gained 0.3%.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Policy Tightening Expected From BoJ</h2>
The moves were in response to comments from Governor Ueda on the sustainability of Japan&#8217;s negative rates policy. Ueda said that monetary policy management would &#8220;become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year,&#8221; suggesting rates could be raised imminently.
Japan&#8217;s negative rates policy began in January 2016, setting the short-term interest rate at -0.1% and targeting the yield on the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) at 0%, with a cap at 1%. The BoJ made its first steps into unwinding the policy in November by removing the cap on the JGB, instead suggesting it now become a reference rate.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36119267/the-time-to-own-gold-is-now-greg-weldon-sees-breakout-for-bullion">&#8216;The Time To Own Gold Is Now&#8217;: Greg Weldon Sees Breakout For Bullion</a>
Earlier in the week, BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said in a speech that Japan&#8217;s aging population of savers would benefit from higher net interest income if rates were to rise.
But the pace of such rises is unlikely to move the needle on yen sentiment a great amount. After four decades of benign inflation, the BoJ is entering new territory and will likely do so very cautiously.
&#8220;We see scope for the market to be disappointed over the pace with which the BoJ is willing to withdraw policy accommodation over the next year or so,&#8221; said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.
&#8220;That said, we expect the currency pair (USD/JPY) to shift lower in the second half of next year on the back of Fed rate cuts and a very gradual unwind in BoJ policy accommodation.&#8221;
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Is Dollar/Yen Carry Trade Over?</h2>
As the Fed cuts rates and the BoJ starts to raise, FX markets could see a long-term driver of USD/JPY gains begin to fade as the carry trade becomes more risky.
The carry trade sees currency investors profit from interest rate differentials: forex traders borrow in low yielding currencies such as the yen, to invest in higher-yielders such as the dollar. Such has been the weight of the carry trade, the dollar has gained more than 40% against the yen in the past two years.
&#8220;We doubt USD/JPY will start correcting well in advance before the Fed's first rate cut, given the magnitude of carry,&#8221; said Shusuke Yamad, FX and rates strategist at Bank of America.
The Fed is still expected to make its first rate cut in the first half of 2024, possibly May.
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36072260/dollar-climbs-have-investors-overdone-the-dovish-fed-trade">Dollar Climbs: Have Investors Overdone The Dovish-Fed Trade?</a>
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DEWJ

The Bank of Japan boosted its growth forecast for 2017 and President-elect <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> deserves much of the credit, at least according to Bloomberg's editorial board.
The Bank of Japan <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-20/boj-keeps-policy-unchanged-as-weak-yen-brightens-price-outlook">said earlier this week</a> that it now expects its real gross domestic product to rise 1.5 percent in the next fiscal year (beginning April 1) as opposed to a prior forecast of 1.2 percent. Nominal growth is now expected to rise 2.5 percent, up from a prior estimate of 2.2 percent.
<h3>What Did Trump Do?</h3>
Bloomberg noted that the main reason attributed to the Bank of Japan's upwardly revised forecast is the decline in its national currency, the yen. The yen has been falling due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which is gaining due to the prospect of "Trumpian tax cuts," infrastructure spending and other policies Trump is expected to implement.
"The link from speculation over Trump's budgets to the outlook for Japan is a timely reminder of the limits of purely domestic economic policy," Bloomberg noted. "Economies are connected in subtle and sometimes unpredictable ways through global markets for goods and capital. That's why a possible side-effect of expanding domestic demand in the U.S. could be a reduction in exporters' competitiveness from a stronger currency."
Checking in on Japanese Yen ETFs:
<ul>
<li>Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycl#NYSE">YCL</a>) last traded at $54.65.</li>
<li>Guggenheim CurrencyShares Japanese (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) were up 0.15 percent at $81.94.</li>
<li>Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) were down 0.96 percent at $80.67.</li>
</ul>
Image Credit: By Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (Donald Trump) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donald_Trump_(17645083170).jpg">Wikimedia Commons</a>

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Bloomberg: Donald Trump Deserves Credit For Japan's Improving Economic Outlook

On <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000552453">CNBC&#39;s Fast Money Final Trade</a>, Pete Najarian said 58.com Inc (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/wuba#NYSE">WUBA</a>) is going higher. He wants to buy the stock.

	Tim Seymour thinks Time Warner Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/twx#NYSE">TWX</a>) is a buy. He said the media stocks have been under pressure, but he believes Time Warner has a cheap valuation.

	Brian Kelly wants to take a short position in yen by purchasing Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

	Dan Nathan would sell Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xlf#NYSE">XLF</a>) if the Fed doesn&#39;t raise interest rates.

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WUBA

Time Warner, Financials And The Yen: Fast Money Picks For September 21

<li><a href="https://www.motifinvesting.com">Motif Investing</a> constantly looks for &ldquo;trends, ideas and world events that could create an investment opportunity.&rdquo;</li>
<li>It then picks 10 to 30 related stocks to build portfolios around, weighing them based on their exposure to the coinciding idea, event or trend. </li>
<li>Among the site&rsquo;s market-beating portfolios, investors can find one comprised of U.S. listed securities of Japanese companies that benefit from the quantitative easing (QE) program in place in the country.</li>
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented three rounds of quantitative easing, which Motif assured &ldquo;helped propel the stock market to record highs as of January 2014.&rdquo;
In an effort to fuel its own economy, Japan&rsquo;s central bank has done the same. The country&rsquo;s quantitative easing program carried out by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has reached around101 trillion yen.
<h3>Bring On Inflation</h3>
As Motif <a href="https://www.motifinvesting.com/motifs/qe-japan">explained</a>, &ldquo;Japan&rsquo;s QE effort is the equivalent of triple the American endeavor on a comparative GDP basis. Since the program was announced in November 2012, the Nikkei is up almost 75 percent: while labor cash earnings, a benchmark for wages, are projected to increase 0.6 percent in the year starting April 1, 2014.&rdquo;
<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/15/11/5976489/fatten-your-bank-account-with-this-junk-foods-moderate-volati#/null">Fatten Your Bank Account With This Junk Foods Moderate-Volatility Portfolio</a></bzrelatedlink>
In addition, the program has impacted the Japanese currency in the desired way. The yen depreciated by almost 30 percent, providing higher returns for U.S.-based investors.
This motif includes &ldquo;stocks of Japanese ADRs as well as a currency hedge to protect against the depreciation in the Yen.&rdquo;
<h3>Performance And Allocation</h3>
The Japan QE motif has managed to beat the S&amp;P 500 both over the past year and past month, returning 13.9 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, versus the S&amp;P&#39;s 0.43 percent decline and 1.34 percent surge over the last year and last month.
In terms of allocation, 33.1 percent of the portfolio&#39;s assets are placed in a currency hedge, 23.7 percent in Japanese technology companies, 22.2 percent in industrials and transportation stocks and 21.0 percent in financial firms.
As for individual stocks, allocation is as follows:
<ul>
<li>33.1 percent: Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>)</li>
<li>12.7 percent: Toyota Motor Corp (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tm#NYSE">TM</a>)</li>
<li>8.5 percent: NTT Docomo Inc (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dcm#NYSE">DCM</a>)</li>
<li>7.5 percent: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mtu#NYSE">MTU</a>)</li>
<li>7.4 percent: Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone Corp (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ntt#NYSE">NTT</a>)</li>
<li>6.7 percent: Honda Motor Co Ltd (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hmc#NYSE">HMC</a>)</li>
<li>5.6 percent: Canon Inc (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/caj#NYSE">CAJ</a>)</li>
<li>5.4 percent: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Grp, Inc.(ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/smfg#NYSE">SMFG</a>)</li>
<li>5.3 percent: Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mfg#NYSE">MFG</a>)</li>
<li>2.8 percent: Nidec Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/nj#NYSE">NJ</a>)</li>
<li>2.2 percent: Sony Corp (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sne#NYSE">SNE</a>)</li>
<li>1.4 percent: ORIX Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ix#NYSE">IX</a>)</li>
<li>1.3 percent: Nomura Holdings, Inc. (ADR) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/nmr#NYSE">NMR</a>)</li>
</ul>
Disclosure: Javier Hasse holds no positions in any of the securities mentioned above.
Image Credit: <a href="https://pixabay.com/en/chart-shares-dax-dow-jones-594212/">Public Domain</a>

SMFG

A Portfolio To Profit From Japan's Quantitative Easing

On <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000360798">CNBC's Fast Money Final Trade</a>, Tim Seymour recommended a long position in Citigroup Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/c#NYSE">C</a>). He thinks that it is the biggest and the cheapest bank. 
Brian Kelly wants to take a short position in yen via Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>). 
Karen Finerman said that Childrens Place Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/plce#NASDAQ">PLCE</a>) reports earnings on Thursday morning but it received a letter from an activist on Wednesday night. If the company misses on earnings, she would be a buyer.
Guy Adami thinks that Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/thc#NYSE">THC</a>) is going to continue to trade higher.

PLCE

Fast Money Picks For March 12: Citigroup, Childrens Place, Tenet Healthcare

On <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000348107">CNBC&#39;s Fast Money Final Trade</a>, Pete Najarian suggested that Deutsche Bank AG (USA) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/db#NYSE">DB</a>) should be bought. It has an attractive book value and a lot of upside.

	Brian Kelly wants to buy Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) to take a short position in the Japanese yen.

	Karen Finerman would buy Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/kors#NYSE">KORS</a>) because it has a lot of value at its current price.

	Guy Adami is a buyer of American Express Company (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/axp#NYSE">AXP</a>) on a pull back.

KORS

Fast Money Picks For January 22: Michael Kors, American Express, Deutsche Bank

The recent performance by the U.S. economy coupled with the poor performance of many European and Asian economies affirms that the dollar will likely remain the strongest of the group of currencies.

	Last Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index hit a fresh four-year high after news out of both China and the eurozone.

	There are a number of ways to benefit from the strength of the dollar via ETFs. Below are a number of ETFs that are directly affected by U.S. dollar and will likely be affected by its continued success relative to other currencies around the world.

	The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/uup#NYSE">UUP</a>) is designed for investors who want to track the value of the U.S. dollar against the six major world currencies: euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona and Swiss franc.

	The most heavily weighted currency in the portfolio is the euro at 58 percent, followed by the yen at 14 percent and the pound at 12 percent.

	The ETF is up 9 percent year to date and up 10 percent over the last six months. A higher expense ratio of 0.8 percent is normal for an ETF such as this given the specificity.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/14/11/5027432/when-theres-a-pullback-on-a-bull-look-at-these-leading-etfs">When There&#39;s A Pullback On A Bull, Look At These Leading ETFs</a></bzrelatedlink>

	An ETF that invests in Japanese equities and is short the Japanese yen is another option for investors that want exposure to the U.S. dollar rising against the yen.

	The ETF is not a pure currency play; however, the Japanese equity markets have been moving in the opposite direction of the yen and therefore could give the ETF an added boost. The WisdomTree Japan Hedge Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>) is made up of 317 Japanese equities as well as 27 short and long currency contracts for the yen and dollar.

	The top holdings in the ETF are Toyota Motor Corp (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tm#NYSE">TM</a>) at 5.4 percent, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/mtu#NYSE">MTU</a>) with a 4.9 percent holding and Japan Tobacco Inc coming in at 3.8 percent. DXJ is up 8 percent year to date and 19 percent over the last six months. Investors should be aware that an ETF such as this is a doubled-edged sword.

	As it capitalizes on both the rising equities and the falling currency in Japan, it will be negatively affected by falling equities and a rising yen, making it a high-risk and high-reward ETF.

	<bzrelatedlink>Related Link: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/14/11/5037493/2-defense-etfs-breaking-out">2 Defense ETFs Breaking Out</a></bzrelatedlink>

	A couple other ETFs that take advantage of the struggling euro and yen are the ProShares Short Euro (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eufx#NYSE">EUFX</a>), which shorts the euro that has been struggling lately, and the ProShares Ultra Short Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>), which shorts the struggling yen.

	A U.S. Dollar ETF provides a way to capitalize on the expanding economy in the U.S. along with the continued struggle of countries within the eurozone as well as Japan.

	It is important however to keep an eye on the status of the dollar, since it has not seen levels such as this since 2010.&nbsp;

EUFX

ETF Options For Greenback Rally

On <a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000329564">CNBC&#39;s Fast Money</a>, Steve Grasso said that he would buy Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bby#NYSE">BBY</a>) on Thursday. <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/topic/best-buy">Best Buy Co Inc</a> gained 1.06 percent on Wednesday.

	Brian Kelly would be a buyer of Proshares Trust II (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>). He thinks that it is still possible to short yen.

	Karen Finerman likes Rentech Nitrogen Partners LP (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/rnf#NYSE">RNF</a>) and she wants to buy it on Thursday. The stock traded 2.16 percent higher on Wednesday.

	Guy Adami thinks that it would be a good idea to buy FireEye Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/feye#NASDAQ">FEYE</a>), which added 0.91 percent on Wednesday.

FEYE

Fast Money Picks For November 13: Best Buy, FireEye, Rentech Nitrogen

When the S&amp;P 500 fell by 38 percent in 2008, there were only a handful of investments that were able to avoid the sell-off.

	Not only did the Japanese yen avoid the selling, it rallied over 22 percent.

	The Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>) has since fallen by nearly 30 percent since hitting a high during the fourth quarter of 2011.

	A big reason for the drop in the value of the yen has been the intervention of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that has successfully devalued the currency. The strategy is to lower the yen and at the same time increase economic activity and combat deflation.

	The power of the BOJ has been able to combat any rally efforts from the yen bulls with only short-term rallies over the last couple years. The current rally in FXY has it four percent off the January low and closing in on a multi-month high. A sizable bounce on Thursday was driven by fears of escalating tensions in the Ukraine along with more negative economic news out of China.

	See also: <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/news/14/03/4390884/mario-draghi-changes-his-tone">Mario Draghi Changes His Tone</a>

	While the ETF has been moving in a slow uptrend over the last two months, the bigger picture shows a long-term downtrend that has yet to turn bullish. The first level to watch on FXY is the $97.00 area. If the ETF were able to close above that level it could spur on a new wave of technical buying, but that will likely be short lived.

	In the end, the Japanese yen will move longer-term based on the actions of the BOJ and the Japanese economy. Short-term rallies in the value of the currency will occur even in the strongest bear market. Often times the rally are created by headlines, such as the Ukraine situation and economic reports. Because the BOJ is able to manipulate the currency and has continually stated it will keep its stimulus in place as the economy rebounds it suggests the yen has limited upside even with negative headlines boosting the currency in the short-term.

	An ETF that takes advantage of a weak yen is the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>). The ETF returns two times the daily inverse of the value of the yen. For example, if the yen declines by 0.5 percent, theoretically YCS should be up 1.0 percent and vice versa. The leveraged aspect of the ETF makes it too risky for most investors and it should only be considered a short-term trading vehicle.

	Until the BOJ decides to alter its view on monetary policy, the trend for the yen will remain bearish and all short-term rallies should be ignored.

When Will The Yen Safety Bounce End? (FXY, YCS)

ETF Outlook for the Wednesday, November 13, 2013

	SPDR Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gld#NYSE">GLD</a>)

	Comments from several Fed Presidents today had the market on the defensive after it appeared tapering is on the table at the December meeting. With the jobs picture still cloudy that does not appear to likely, however when a Fed President speaks, the market listens.

	As the taper concerns spread through the market it held back stocks, but the real damage was it the commodities market. Oil fell to the lowest level in months and gold is closing in on a multi-month low. GLD closed down by 1.15 percent at its lowest closing price in 4 months. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) fared even worse, with a loss of 2.1 percent and the ETF is now down 49 percent for the year.

	On the flip side there is the DB Short Gold ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dgz#NYSE">DGZ</a>), which closed up 1.2 percent and matched its best intraday high in 4 months. The path of least resistance for gold is down and this is one asset class to avoid at this time.

	Rydex CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fxy#NYSE">FXY</a>)

	A perfect storm for a weak Yen could be brewing again. If the Fed decides to taper in December it will boost the value of the U.S. Dollar, thus putting pressure on foreign currencies such as the Yen. The latest reports out of Japan have not been great and this is another negative for the country’s currency. Finally you have PM Abe who has stated his intentions to lower the value of the Yen to fight deflation.

	Put this all together and you have FXY at a new 2-month low yesterday. The ETF closed at $98.03 and if it cannot hold $97.38 it could continue to fall and retest the 2013 low of $94.38. As the Yen fall the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) breaks out to a multi-month high. The two-times inverse leveraged ETF will do the opposite of the Yen on a daily basis, multiplied by two. This is an aggressive play, but could be a winner for traders if the perfect storm his the country of the rising sun.

	Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF (NYSE: PGAL)

	The first ETF concentrating solely on Portugal will begin trading today under the symbol PGAL. The ETF is made up of 20 stocks that trade on the NYSE Euronext Lisbon exchange. Global X filed for this ETF nearly two and a half years ago and it have finally come to fruition. The country’s stock market is up 15 percent this year and up over 40 percent since it hit a low in the summer of 2012. Now investors can own all the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) via ETFs; Portugal was the lone country without its own ETF. If the turnaround story in Europe continues it could see PGAL attracted decent assets in the next year.

	Global X InterBolsa FTSE Colombia 20 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gxg#NYSE">GXG</a>)

	Not an obscure ETF, but definitely one that is not on the top of many investors wishlist is GXG. The reason it is mentioned here this morning is because it is working on a 12-day losing streak. The ETF has not had an up day since 10/25. In that time GXG has lost 10.7 percent and is trading at the worst level since July.

	Last week the country said it is looking for GDP growth of 3-5 percent in 2014, which is not too shabby with the current slow growth world economy. However, the country has its own issues it is dealing with that stretch from geopolitical uncertainty to a debt issue that is expanding rapidly. The reward is not the risk at current prices, but there could be a time in the future that investors take a change on Pablo Escobar’s birthplace.

New ETFs

Commodities

Pre-Market Outlook

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

ETF Outlook for Wednesday November 13, 2013 (GLD, FXY, PGAL, GXG)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday, September 26, 2013.

Give the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/slv#NYSE">SLV</a>) a look.

The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tza#NYSE">TZA</a>) could be worth a trade.

The iShares Europe 350 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iev#NYSE">IEV</a>) looks good.

Check in with the SPDR S&amp;P Dividend ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sdy#NYSE">SDY</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI Thailand ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/thd#NYSE">THD</a>), Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/edz#NYSE">EDZ</a>) and the iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewm#NYSE">EWM</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bkln#NYSE">BKLN</a>).

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

BKLN

Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x Shares

iShares MSCI Thailand Investable Market Index Fund

ETFs to Watch September 26, 2013 (BKLN, SDY, TZA)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Wednesday, September 25, 2013.

Keep an eye on the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vti#NYSE">VTI</a>).

The iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/jo#NYSE">JO</a>) looks terrible.

The Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/faz#NYSE">FAZ</a>) is looking interesting.

Let's see if the Market Vectors Gaming ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bjk#NYSE">BJK</a>) makes a new high.

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares MSCI UltraShort Emerging Markets (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eev#NYSE">EEV</a>), EGShares Emerging Markets Consumer ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/econ#NYSE">ECON</a>) and the WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/epi#NYSE">EPI</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: Market Vectors High-Yield Muni ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hyd#NYSE">HYD</a>).

Emerging Global Shares Dow Jones Emerging Marketsnsumer Titan Index Fund

ECON

ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets

Market Vectors High Yield Municipal Index ETF

iPath DJ-UBSffee Subindex Total Return ETN

ETFs to Watch September 25, 2013 (BJK, FAZ, YCS)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday, September 12, 2013.

Give the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) a look.

The Global X Social Media Index ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/socl#NASDAQ">SOCL</a>) continues to impress.

Check in with the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vug#NYSE">VUG</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vnm#NYSE">VNM</a>), Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vwo#NYSE">VWO</a>) and the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vwo#NYSE">VWO</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

SOCL

ETFs to Watch September 12, 2013 (ELD, SOCL, VUG)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Friday August 16, 2013.

	Give the iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/usmv#NYSE">USMV</a>) a look.

	The ProShares UltraShort Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dug#NYSE">DUG</a>) is worth a trade.

	The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdxj#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) is on fire.

	The SPDR S&amp;P Dividend ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sdy#NYSE">SDY</a>) is breaking down.

	Emerging markets plays of the day: Market Vectors Egypt ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/egpt#NYSE">EGPT</a>), iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/fm#NYSE">FM</a>) and the Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/brf#NYSE">BRF</a>).

	Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

	Bond play of the day: PIMCO Total Return ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bond#NYSE">BOND</a>).

BOND

EGPT

GDXJ

USMV

ETFs To Watch August 16, 2013 (BOND, GDXJ, YCS)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Thursday, August 8, 2013.

Give the Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tza#NYSE">TZA</a>) a look.

The Market Vectors Global Alternatve Energy ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gex#NYSE">GEX</a>) will certainly be in play.

Keep an eye on the PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dto#NYSE">DTO</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tur#NYSE">TUR</a>), Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/brf#NYSE">BRF</a>) and the iShares S&amp;P India Nifty 50 Index (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/indy#NASDAQ">INDY</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: iShares Core Total U.S. Bond Market ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/agg#NYSE">AGG</a>).

PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short ETN

Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy ETF Trust

INDY

iShares MSCI Turkey Investable Market Index Fund

ETFs to Watch August 8, 2013 (AGG, DTO, YCS)

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Tuesday, July 30, 2013.

Give the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iau#NYSE">IAU</a>) a look.

Earnings play: Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/xle#NYSE">XLE</a>).

The ProShares UltraShort S&amp;P500 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/sds#NYSE">SDS</a>) is worth a trade.

The Global X Uranium ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ura#NYSE">URA</a>) is on fire.

Emerging markets plays of the day: ProShares UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eev#NYSE">EEV</a>), iShares MSCI Chile ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/msci#NYSE">MSCI</a>) and the Market Vectors Indonesia ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/idx#NYSE">IDX</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/eld#NYSE">ELD</a>).

MSCI

ETFs to Watch July 30, 2013 (SDS, URA, XLE)

Ahead of this weekend's Japanese elections that will decide control of the country's upper house of parliament, stocks in the world's third-largest economy tumbled. During Friday's Asian session, the Nikkei 225 lost almost 1.5 percent.

	At this writing, USD/JPY is down almost 0.2 percent and, not surprisingly, the major Japan ETFs have followed suit. The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dxj#NYSE">DXJ</a>) is off almost 1.5 percent while the rival iShares MSCI Japan ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewj#NYSE">EWJ</a>) is down one percent. DXJ and EWJ <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/13/07/3746548/hedged-yen-etfs-could-have-much-more-upside">are the top-two ETFs this year</a> in terms of asset-gathering proficiency and the race for second and third is not really that close.

	While those ETFs and other Japan funds look set to close the week on a down note, investors would do well to go back and look at how these funds performed after the December 2012 elections that brought Prime Minister Shinzo Abe back to power and made Abenomics a household name. Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party emerged victorious on December 16, 2012.

	Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns, but there are some points worth remembering. As was the case in December, Abe's LDP is expected to cruise to a landslide victory this weekend. Following that result in December, Japan ETFs immediately responded.

	From Dec. 17, 2012 through Dec. 27, 2012, DXJ and the rival db X-trackers MSCI Japan Hedged Equity Fund (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/dbjp#NYSE">DBJP</a>) gained an average of 6.75 percent. Those gains foreshadowed not only average Japanese citizens embracing Abe and his bold economic agenda, but significant upside for U.S.-listed Japan ETFs.

	Year-to-date, DBJP was sitting on a gain of almost 34 percent heading into Friday while DXJ had soared 30.1 percent.

	Following the last election, EWJ, the iShares product gained 2.7 percent in the aforementioned 10-day period. The ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>) jumped 5.3 percent and more gains for these ETFs could be on the way if the LDP emerges from the weekend's elections with a commanding upper house majority.

	Wining the upper house elections is significant because Japan has suffered from deadlock in parliament ever since the LDP, led by Abe, suffered a big defeat in upper house elections in 2007, <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/100895029">according to CNBC</a>. An LDP victory would end Japan's hung parliament scenario, giving Abe the political capital to initiate even more bold economic reforms aimed at boosting Japan's domestic economy.

	That could make a <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/13/07/3739654/three-nifty-strong-dollar-etf-plays">new ETF alluring for small-cap investors</a>. The WisdomTree Japan Hedged SmallCap Equity Fund (NYSE: DXJS) was not around in December, but like, DXJ, DXJS is designed to deliver upside when the yen tumbles. However, DXJS is more levered to a recovery in Japan's domestic economy, the so-called third arrow of Abenomics that could be bolstered with victory for the LDP this weekend.

	Bottom line: Some investors may be concerned about the price action in Japan ETFs Friday. That does not mean the elections will not go as planned. Actually, pullback in Japan ETFs might just be a matter of profit-taking as DXJ, as one example, was up 9.6 percent in the past month heading into Friday.

	For more on ETFs, click <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/etfs">here</a>.

Previews

Events

Intraday Update

Small Dip in Japan ETFs Could be Pre-Election Opportunity

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Friday, July 12, 2013.

Earnings play: iShares U.S. Financials ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/iyf#NYSE">IYF</a>).

The Market Vectors Gold ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/gdx#NYSE">GDX</a>) should be in play per usual.

Give the Vanguard Telecom Services ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/vox#NYSE">VOX</a>) a look.

Check in with the iShares MSCI Italy ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewi#NYSE">EWI</a>).

Emerging markets plays of the day: iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ewt#NYSE">EWT</a>), Guggenheim China Small-Cap ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/hao#NYSE">HAO</a>) and the iShares S&amp;P Latin America 40 ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ilf#NYSE">ILF</a>).

Forex play of the day: ProShares UltraShort Yen (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ycs#NYSE">YCS</a>).

Bond play of the day: Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/bsv#NYSE">BSV</a>).

iShares Trust S&P Latin America 40 Index Fund

iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector Index Fund