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Benzinga examined the prospects for many investors’ favorite stocks over the last week — here’s a look at some of our top stories.

Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Tesla, DraftKings, Broadcom And Trader Says Buy Dogecoin In High 10 Cents If You Get A Chance

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IMF raises concerns about US debt, urges lower deficit from 7% of GDP. Gita Gopinath warns of global economic stability threat &amp; crowding out effect.

Is The US National Debt Unsustainable? &#39;We Can&#39;t Have A Deficit Of 7% Of The GDP&#39;

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The IMF is concerned about highly-leveraged hedge funds dominating the U.S. Treasury futures market, which could lead to systemic threats and instability in the global economy.

Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: &#39;A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,&#39; IMF Warns

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Benzinga examined the prospects for<a href="http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas"> many investors&#8217; favorite stocks</a> over the last week — here&#8217;s a look at some of our top stories.
Bears ruled Wall Street this week as the S&amp;P 500 endured its worst weekly drop since March 2023, falling over 3% due to rising fears around inflation and monetary policy. The Nasdaq Composite also suffered, dropping 5.5%, its worst week since November 2022 and its fourth consecutive down week, making it the longest losing streak since December 2022.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dismissed any <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/04/38342737/nasdaq-100-notches-worst-day-since-late-2023-worst-week-since-late-2022-as-ai-driven-chipmakers-tu">immediate interest rate cuts</a>, citing slow disinflation, while escalating geopolitical risks further dampened the outlook for tech stocks. Despite these challenges, the Dow managed a marginal gain of 0.01%, marking its first positive week in the last three.
Benzinga provides daily reports on the stocks most popular with investors. Here are a few of this past week&#8217;s most bullish and bearish posts that are worth another look.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bulls</h3>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cannabis/24/04/38297096/canopy-growth-ceo-at-benzinga-conference-i-dont-think-our-investors-understand-the-value-that-si">&#8220;Canopy Growth CEO At Benzinga Conference: &#8216;I Don&#8217;t Think Our Investors Understand The Value That Sits Inside Of Canopy'&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/adam-eckert">Adam Eckert</a>, reports on CEO David Klein&#8216;s statement at the Benzinga Cannabis Capital Conference, asserting that Canopy Growth Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CGC#NASDAQ">CGC</a>) is undervalued by investors, especially regarding its acquisitions like Wana and its new strategic direction under Canopy USA.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/04/38255536/dogecoin-down-25-in-past-week-but-if-you-get-a-chance-to-buy-it-in-the-high-0-10s-buy-it-s">&#8220;Dogecoin Down 25% In Past Week, But &#8216;If You Get A Chance To Buy It In The High $0.10s, Buy It,&#8217; Says Trader&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/khyathi-dalal">Khyathi Dalal</a>, explores how, despite Dogecoin&#8217;s (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>) 25% plunge, market influencers remain bullish, advocating for purchases during dips as they predict potential price recoveries and a strong altcoin market ahead.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38273179/draftkings-stock-has-upside-to-street-estimates-analyst-says-sports-betting-play-wi">&#8220;DraftKings Stock Has Upside To Street Estimates, Analyst Says: Sports Betting Play Will &#8216;Benefit From Healthy Growth'&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/chris-katje">Chris Katje</a>,&nbsp;describes a Goldman Sachs analyst&#8217;s optimistic outlook on DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DKNG#NASDAQ">DKNG</a>), projecting strong revenue growth and improved profitability due to expanding markets and enhanced unit economics.
For additional bullish calls of the past week, check out the following:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38320141/rivian-best-positioned-ev-oem-analyst-praises-long-term-outlook-r2-launch-with-shor">Rivian &#8216;Best Positioned EV OEM&#8217;: Analyst Praises Long-Term Outlook, R2 Launch, With Short-Term Caution</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38314733/teslas-autonomous-driving-efforts-win-praise-from-goldman-sachs-wall-street-firm-pr">Tesla&#8217;s Autonomous Driving Efforts Win Praise From Goldman Sachs: Wall Street Firm Projects Long-Term Growth From Robotaxi Services</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/24/04/38341469/happy-bitcoin-halving-day-what-experts-predict-happens-next">Happy Bitcoin Halving Day: What Experts Predict Happens Next</a>
The Bears
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38285714/no-more-inventory-discounts-on-tesla-cars-as-ceo-elon-musk-says-sales-system-has-turned-complex-and">&#8220;No More Inventory Discounts On Tesla Cars As CEO Elon Musk Says Sales System Has Turned &#8216;Complex And Inefficient'&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/anan-ashraf">Anan Ashraf</a>, explains Elon Musk&#8216;s decision to discontinue Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) inventory discounts due to inefficiencies and complexities in the sales process.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38295633/real-estate-stocks-fall-as-mortgage-rates-rise-to-4-month-highs-inflation-is-provin">&#8220;Real Estate Stocks Fall As Mortgage Rates Rise To 4-Month Highs: &#8216;Inflation Is Proving Tougher To Bring Down'&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/piero-cingari">Piero Cingari</a>, describes the drop in real estate stocks like Prologis, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLD#NYSE">PLD</a>) and EastGroup Properties, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EGP#NYSE">EGP</a>), driven by rising mortgage rates and a pessimistic outlook for housing starts and affordability.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/04/38254776/broadcom-succumbs-to-eu-antitrust-investigation-over-vmware-licensing-prompting-swift-pricing-strate">&#8220;Broadcom Succumbs to EU Antitrust Investigation Over VMware Licensing, Prompting Swift Pricing Strategy Revision&#8221;</a> by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/anusuya-lahiri-0">Anusuya Lahiri</a>, reports that Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) is adjusting VMware&#8217;s pricing in response to an EU antitrust investigation spurred by complaints about unfair licensing practices.
For more bearish takes, be sure to see these posts:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38303079/most-s-p-500-stocks-no-longer-trade-above-50-day-average-healthy-pullback-or-is-the">Most S&amp;P 500 Stocks No Longer Trade Above 50-Day Average: Healthy Pullback Or Is The Bull Market Over?</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38319509/treasury-yields-head-to-danger-zone-analyst-forecasts-potential-spike-to-5-disorder">Treasury Yields Head To &#8216;Danger Zone&#8217;: Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38265256/peter-schiff-challenges-bitcoins-100k-prediction-as-crypto-linked-stocks-languish-i">Peter Schiff Challenges Bitcoin&#8217;s $100K Prediction As Crypto-Linked Stocks Languish In Bear Zone: &#8216;Sell Your Fool&#8217;s Gold And Buy The Real Thing&#8217;</a>
Keep up with all the latest breaking news and trading ideas by following<a href="https://twitter.com/Benzinga"> Benzinga</a><a href="http://twitter.com/Benzinga"> on Twitter</a>.
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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International Monetary Fund (IMF) deputy chief Gita Gopinath raised concerns about the United States&#8217; burgeoning public debt, emphasizing the urgency of reducing the federal deficit from its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/04/38292094/imf-raises-concerns-over-us-debt-something-will-have-to-give">current 7% of GDP.</a>
&#8220;The U.S. is running [a] very large deficit for a country with a strong demand, and they still have to deal with the last mile to bring inflation down,&#8221; Gita Gopinath, said Friday in a Bloomberg interview during the IMF Spring Meetings.
&#8220;We can't have a deficit of 7% of GDP, it needs to be lower,&#8221; Gopinath added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The US Government Has A Fiscal Challenge: The Figures Don't Lie</h3>
The U.S. government fiscal deficit ballooned to 8.8% of GDP in 2023, marking a considerable increase from the previous year's 4.1%. This surge has been largely attributed to a significant fall in income tax revenues paired with escalated government expenditure.
Peering into the future, the IMF's Fiscal Monitor publication forecasted only a minor contraction of the U.S. budget deficit to 6.6% of GDP in 2024. 
However, the relief appears short-lived as estimates indicate a rebound to 7.1% in 2025, with the deficit remaining constantly above 6% through 2029. 
That signals a worrisome upward trend for the U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio, which is expected to climb from 122% to 134% by 2029, according to the IMF projections. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Government Deficit (As % of GDP)</td>
<td>Government Debt As % of GDP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>-8.8</td>
<td>122.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>123.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>126.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026</td>
<td>-6.6</td>
<td>128.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2027</td>
<td>-6.2</td>
<td>130.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2028</td>
<td>-6.4</td>
<td>132.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2029</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>133.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: IMF Fiscal Monitor – April 2024</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Ripple Effect Of US Debt Dynamics</h3>
Gopinath cautioned that if U.S. fiscal challenges are left unchecked, they risk threatening global economic stability. 
&#8220;That has consequences for debt servicing in the U.S. and spillovers to the rest of the world.&#8221; A central point of Gopinath&#8217;s concern is the ‘&#8221;crowding out&#8221; effect, where U.S. borrowing could heighten borrowing costs globally. 
&#8220;When you have debt issues in the U.S., that can crowd out the borrowing from other countries, as their cost of borrowing will increase by much more.&#8221;
Furthermore, Gopinath noted that while the U.S. does not currently face a debt sustainability crisis, the heavy borrowing is pushing interest rates higher, which reverberates through global financial systems and affects international corporations.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Not Much Relief Coming From Lower Interest Rates</h3>
Potentially lower interest rates are unlikely to materially shift the U.S. fiscal problems. 
&#8220;We are expecting interest rates to come down, but bringing inflation back to target is going to take a little longer,&#8221; Gopinath said. 
Addressing a question on the possibility of interest rates returning to pre-pandemic levels, Gopinath's response was clear: &#8220;That doesn't seem to be the case.&#8221;
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note, often seen as a barometer for Federal Reserve rate moves, hit the 5% mark on Friday, reaching peaks not seen since mid-November 2023, and reflecting a dramatic shift in investor expectations regarding future Fed rate cuts.
Meanwhile, the market performance of U.S. Treasury bonds has been negative this year. Notably, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has witnessed a 9% retreat since the year began. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/macro-notification/24/04/38325320/small-group-of-hedge-funds-wields-dominance-in-us-treasury-market-a-concentration-of-v">Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: &#8216;A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,&#8217; IMF Warns</a>
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Is The US National Debt Unsustainable? 'We Can't Have A Deficit Of 7% Of The GDP'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns about a small number of hedge funds that now hold significant control over the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/treasuries">U.S. Treasury futures market. </a>
&#8220;A concentration of vulnerability has built up, as a handful of highly leveraged funds account for most of the short positions in Treasury futures,&#8221; the IMF&#8217;s April 2024 Global Financial Stability (GFS) report states. 
This concentration of short positions by highly leveraged funds could pose systemic threats to the financial stability of not just the U.S., but the global economy, according to the Washington-based institution. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Increasing Bets On Treasury Futures By Hedge Funds</h3>
Leveraged hedge funds have ramped up their short positions in U.S. Treasury futures, capitalizing on the basis trade, which involves exploiting the price discrepancies between cash Treasuries and their futures counterparts. 
These funds use borrowed money from the repurchase-agreement (repo) market to increase their potential returns. 
The IMF warns that the scale of these bets has grown large enough to spark concerns among financial stability observers.
&#8220;Some of these funds may have become systemically important to the Treasury and repo markets, and stresses they face could affect the broader financial system,&#8221; the IMF stated. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Too Big To Fail?</h3>
Essentially, the report suggests that certain funds have become so crucial to the Treasury and repo markets that they might now be considered too big to fail.
Any significant liquidity problems they encounter could ripple through the broader financial system, causing widespread instability.
The concentration of leverage among these funds is stark. Nearly half of all two-year Treasury futures positions are held by fewer than eight traders. For longer maturities like five and ten years, just eight hedge funds control about 30% of the market.
In August last year, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman made headlines by initiating a short position on U.S. 30-year Treasuries, anticipating <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33547572/hedge-fund-guru-bill-ackman-bets-against-us-treasuries-expects-30-year-yields-to-surge-to-5-5">soaring U.S. budget deficits. </a> This move netted him over $200 million when he closed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/hedge-funds/23/10/35375749/bill-ackman-exits-treasury-bond-short-position-warns-economy-slowing-faster-than-recent-data-">the position in October.</a>
So far in 2024, U.S. Treasury bonds have underperformed. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has dropped almost 9% since the beginning of the year, and the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>) has seen a decline exceeding 12%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">US Debt-To-GDP Ratio Set To Rise To 134% By 2029</h3>
It remains uncertain whether the hedge funds&#8217; substantial short positions are in part a bet against U.S. fiscal health, anticipating that yields will remain elevated due to ongoing loose fiscal policies. 
The IMF&#8217;s &#8216;Fiscal Monitor&#8217; suggests that increasing public debt, primarily in China and the United States, coupled with tightening monetary policies, are contributing to higher long-term government bond yields and their volatility in the U.S.
In 2023, the U.S. general government fiscal deficit expanded dramatically to 8.8% of GDP, up from 4.1% the previous year, driven by a sharp decline in income tax revenues and increased spending. The deficit is expected to slightly decrease to 6.6% of GDP in 2024 but will rise again in 2025.
The IMF projects that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will continuously climb from 122% in 2023 to nearly 134% by 2029.
"Public gross financing needs will remain at levels higher than those before the pandemic over the medium term based on high existing debt burdens and persistent fiscal deficits. China and the United States have large gross financing needs of more than 25 percent of GDP in the near term,&#8221; the IMF wrote. 
The IMF&#8217;s forecasts suggest that the U.S. Treasury will need to issue a substantial amount of bonds to refinance maturing debt and cover the spiraling deficit, a reality that hedge funds are keenly exploiting.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Government Deficit (As % of GDP)</td>
<td>Government Debt As % of GDP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2023</td>
<td>-8.8</td>
<td>122.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2024</td>
<td>-6.5</td>
<td>123.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2025</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>126.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2026</td>
<td>-6.6</td>
<td>128.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2027</td>
<td>-6.2</td>
<td>130.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2028</td>
<td>-6.4</td>
<td>132.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2029</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>133.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data: IMF Fiscal Monitor – April 2024</figcaption></figure>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38319509/treasury-yields-head-to-danger-zone-analyst-forecasts-potential-spike-to-5-disorder">Treasury Yields Head To &#8216;Danger Zone&#8217;: Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Small Group Of Hedge Funds Wields Dominance In US Treasury Market: 'A Concentration Of Vulnerability Has Built Up,' IMF Warns

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have ascended to a striking 4.70% this month, the highest mark since early November 2023 amid a toxic mix of higher inflation, a stubbornly resilient economy and revised expectations around <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">Federal Reserve rate cuts.</a>
Adding to the unease, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicated the latest economic data does not bolster confidence that inflation will converge towards <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/24/04/38278182/powell-delays-fed-rate-cuts-we-need-greater-confidence-in-inflation-2-year-yields-spik">the Fed&#8217;s 2% target soon.</a>
The bond market strain is also reflected in the performance of related instruments, such as the US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UTEN#NYSE">UTEN</a>), which is down by 2.9% for April, making it the most challenging month since September 2023. 
Longer-dated Treasury exchange-traded funds (ETFs), such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), fell even more, down 5.6% month to date. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: 10-Year Treasury Yields Eye The 5% Red Line</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-298169" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/18105556/image-121.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts Rethink Fed&#8217;s Next Moves: Vanguard Issues Warnings When Yields Hit 5%</h1>
The landscape of Fed policy expectations is being redrawn by analysts who, until recently, had not anticipated such aggressive shifts in Treasury yields. Few had foreseen yields approaching levels that could destabilize the market. 
Yet, Vanguard's head of international rates Ales Koutny offered a stark warning: &#8220;We are in a danger zone right now.&#8221; 
Koutny believed that surpassing the 4.75% yield threshold could trigger a severe sell-off, potentially driving rates to or beyond 5%.
As recently reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/treasuries-vanguard-warns-10-year-yields-risk-spiking-back-to-5?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>, investors flocked to Treasuries late last year, anticipating a quick easing of Federal Reserve policies. However, resilient economic data from the U.S. has dampened these expectations, turning the tide against market optimists.
Koutny revealed, &#8220;We still think that there's a residual long position left over.&#8221; The lack of orderly adjustment in these positions could precipitate a chaotic market selloff, risking a yield spike to critical levels.
Despite the prevailing negative market sentiment, the current high yields have attracted some opportunistic buying. 
The latest data from JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. indicates a significant shift in investor positioning towards Treasuries, marking the first net long stance since March. 
The robust demand was further evidenced by a successful 20-year Treasury auction, closing at yields slightly lower than anticipated, suggesting underlying market confidence in Treasury securities despite broader concerns.
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38297897/fund-managers-are-the-most-optimistic-since-2022-bull-sentiment-not-quite-at-close-">Fund Managers Are The Most Optimistic Since 2022: &#8216;Bull Sentiment Not Quite At Close-Your-Eyes-And-Sell Levels&#8217;</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Treasury Yields Head To 'Danger Zone': Analyst Forecasts Potential Spike To 5%, Disorderly Sell-Off For Markets

A sentiment of risk aversion looms over the markets during Wednesday&#8217;s trading session, triggering midday losses across the board in stocks and cryptocurrencies and prompting a flight towards bonds, as investor confidence remains dampened by<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/macro-economic-events"> geopolitical and economic risks.</a>
The situation in the Middle East remains highly uncertain, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating that despite advice from allies to avoid a retaliation against Iran, Israel will make its own decisions on security.
Investors also parsed through the latest remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which officially dashed hopes for imminent rate cuts amid a lack of confidence about disinflation.
The S&amp;P 500 declined by 0.5% by 1.15 p.m. EDT, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 underperforming, down by 1.2%. Semiconductors were among the weakest-performing industries, with the VanEck Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>) falling by 2.5%, on track to close at its lowest level in nearly two months.
Investors sought refuge in Treasuries for liquidity, causing yields to drop by 8 basis points in the 10-year tenor, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rallied by 1%. Gold softened by 0.5%, while silver managed to inch up by 0.8%.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) faced significant downward pressure, with the largest cryptocurrency plummeting by 5.2% and hitting an intraday low of $59,650, now down 18% since its peak in March.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day Chg %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>37,743.82</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,963.08</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,025.59</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,524.58</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:15 p.m. EDT</figcaption></figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.5% to $501.05, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.1% lower to $377.69 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 1.1% to $426.78, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, up 1.4%. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) was the major laggard, down 1%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>United Airlines Holdings, Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rose over 14%, amid stronger-than-expected financial results last quarter. Peers such as American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>), Delta Airlines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) rose 4.5% and 2.5%, respectively. </li>
<li>Other companies reacting to earnings reports were J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBHT#NASDAQ">JBHT</a>), down 8%, Abbott Laboratories&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ABT#NYSE">ABT</a>), down 2.5%, ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASML#NASDAQ">ASML</a>), down 7.5%, First Horizon Corporation&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FHN#NYSE">FHN</a>), up 2.2%, Travelers Companies, Inc.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TRV#NYSE">TRV</a>), down nearly 8%, Prologis Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLD#NYSE">PLD</a>), down 6.5%, and U.S. Bancorp&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USB#NYSE">USB</a>), down 4%. </li>
<li>GE Vernova Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEV#NYSE">GEV</a>) rallied 6% after BNP Paribas initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and $177 price target. </li>
<li>Notable names reporting after the close are CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CSX#NASDAQ">CSX</a>), Alcoa Corporation&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>), Discover Financial Services&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DFS#NYSE">DFS</a>) and Las Vegas Sands Corp.&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LVS#NYSE">LVS</a>).</li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38297897/fund-managers-are-the-most-optimistic-since-2022-bull-sentiment-not-quite-at-close-">Fund Managers Are The Most Optimistic Since 2022: &#8216;Bull Sentiment Not Quite At Close-Your-Eyes-And-Sell Levels&#8217;</a>
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Stocks Fall As Geopolitics, Economic Worries Spook Investors, Chipmakers Sell Off, Bitcoin Tumbles To $60,000: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

Investors remain on edge as geopolitics continue to shape market trends, with Israel mulling a response to Iran while the U.S. and key allies explore <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38264304/middle-east-tensions-mount-as-israel-considers-retaliation-after-irans-direct-attack">further sanctions against Tehran.</a>
U.S. major averages display mixed performances as of midday trading Tuesday. The S&amp;P 500 holds steady at 5,200 points, while blue-chip stocks outperform the broader market, and small caps experience some declines.
In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund raised growth projections for the U.S. economy, while eyeing the possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year as inflation declines. Yet, an escalation in the Middle East could complicate the picture, pushing oil and inflation higher and forcing central <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38272906/imf-expects-lower-interest-rates-unless-middle-east-conflict-escalates-there-will-b">banks to tighten again. </a>
Treasury yields continue to kick higher, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond reaching 4.65%. Bond-related ETFs declined further, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 0.5%. 
Despite the uptick in yields and a stronger dollar, gold continues to showcase an impressive strength, with the yellow metal up 0.3% to $2,390 per ounce, on track for a record-high close. 
Oil prices were slightly softer, down 0.4%. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is down 2.5% to $61,900, marking a 15% drop since last week&#8217;s high. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>37,910.28</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,759.96</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,066.92</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>195.34</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:30 p.m. EDT</figcaption></figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) held steady at $504.71, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.4% to $379.06 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) held steady at $431.91, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.4%. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) was the major laggard, down 0.9%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Tesla, Inc, (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) fell more than 2.8%, on track to close at the lowest level in a year, after analysts interpreted the recent layoff announcement as a negative sign for the company&#8217;s outlook. </li>
<li>Companies reacting to earnings were Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>), down 3.3%; Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>), up 3.4%; Northern Trust Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NTRS#NYSE">NTRS</a>), down 4%; PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PNC#NYSE">PNC</a>), down 1.9%; Jonson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>), down 2.4%; and UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>), up over 6%. </li>
<li>Skillsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SKIL#NASDAQ">SKIL</a>) fell nearly 40%, after a revenue miss and departure of its CEO. </li>
<li>Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HE#NYSE">HE</a>) fell 18%, falling below last year&#8217;s lows, after the company announced readiness to implement rolling blackouts owing to reduced wind and solar power generation, along with the temporary outage of several large generators.</li>
<li>Notable names reporting earnings after the close are J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JBHT#NASDAQ">JBHT</a>), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) and Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBKR#NYSE">IBKR</a>). </li>
</ul>
Read Now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38274726/homebuilder-stocks-tumble-as-housing-starts-fall-by-14-7-a-poor-time-to-buy-a-home-">Homebuilder Stocks Tumble As Housing Starts Fall By 14.7%: &#8216;A Poor Time To Buy A Home,&#8217; Says Economist</a>
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Stocks Grapple With Geopolitical Pressures, Gold Eyes $2,400, Bitcoin Falls Below $62,000: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles towards Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting concerns of a significant escalation. Sirens blared in Israel, as reported by Reuters, and distant booming sounds were heard, likely from the interception of the drones.
Israel said it identified 300 &quot;threats of various types&quot; and eliminated &quot;99%&quot; of those bound for Israeli soil, according to an update from an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson, as quoted on CNBC. Iran&#39;s Revolutionary Guards seized a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, saying the vessel, associated with Israel, prompted heightened alert levels due to the possibility of a direct Iranian attack,
This could escalate a decades-old standoff between the two regional adversaries. Notably, the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas, now entering its seventh month, has heightened tensions in the region, extending to conflicts with Lebanon and Syria. Additionally, long-range attacks targeting Israeli interests have originated from Yemen and Iraq.
<h3>Market Impact</h3>
Investors are likely to take this clash seriously and rush toward fear-induced selling. The sudden rise of chaos in the market brightened the appeal for safe haven assets. Volatility ETFs which track the implied volatility of the market also surged thanks to the massacre in the stock market. iPath Series B S&amp;P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (BATS: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vxx#BATS">VXX</a>) has added about 4.2% past week and rose 8.8% on Friday and advanced about 1% after hours on Apr 12.
Below, we highlight a few of the biggest gainers from the latest sell-off in the stock market. Also, these ETFs may continue to shine should tensions persist in the global economy in the near term.
<h3>Gold</h3>
Gold is often viewed as a hedge against market risk. The metal has seen some strength lately thanks to this market turmoil. Gold bullion ETF SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD) has gained 0.4% in the past five days. It added 0.14% in after hours on Apr 12.
<h3>Long-Term U.S. Treasury</h3>
U.S. 10-year benchmark treasury yield slumped to 4.50% on Apr 12, 2024, down from 4.56% recorded on Apr 11 despite talks of higher-for-longer rates due to rise in volatility in the markets. Notably, U.S. Treasuries are also perceived as risk-free asset class which is why iShares Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tlt#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) and iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ief#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) added about 0.5% and 0.4% on Apr 12, 2024.
<h3>U.S. Dollar</h3>
The U.S. dollar is often viewed as a safe haven currency due to their strong liquidity and stable political systems. With the Fed likely to keep rates higher for longer due to sticky inflation, the U.S. dollar is likely to remain strong over the medium term. Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (ARCA:UUP) can thus be played here.
<h3>Bottom Line</h3>
Although we do not expect this bearish trend to continue for long especially in the United States, which has a strong trend underneath, the upheaval in the stock market may persist for a week or so courtesy of the gloomy global backdrop and an oil price rally (due to crisis in the oil-rich Middle East). However, as the earnings season unfolds, this fluffy market should take a solid shape and decide on the fate of several asset classes and sectors.
<a href="https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2255601/3-safe-haven-etfs-to-gain-on-middle-east-crisis?cid=CS-BENZ-FT-etf_news_and_commentary-2255601">To read this article on Zacks.com click here.</a>

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3 Safe-Haven ETFs to Gain on Middle East Crisis

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<img alt="" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-04-16_07h50_47.png" style="height:389px; width:624px" />
<h3>Extraordinary Move In Treasuries</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-yields-rise-israel-iran-tlt-mc-04162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tlt#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that TLT has fallen below the support/resistance zone.&nbsp;This prior support zone has now become a resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a breakdown below the zone, Treasuries have continued to fall.</li>
<li>The chart shows a downward sloping trendline and a significant move lower away from the trendline.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the down move is on heavy volume.&nbsp;This indicates conviction.</li>
<li>Historically, at a time of geopolitical tension, money rushes into U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. Treasuries rocket up.&nbsp;Based on history, on Iran attacking Israel, U.S. Treasuries should have moved up.&nbsp;But as the chart shows, Treasuries have continued to move down.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Treasuries moving down in spite of the Iranian attack on Israel is quite extraordinary.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors pay attention when something extraordinary happens in the markets.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Lower Treasuries mean lower stock valuations.&nbsp;All investors should fully grasp this point.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>As is their pattern, the momo crowd is oblivious to this extraordinary development and is buying stocks.&nbsp;The momo crowd&rsquo;s buy the dip without analysis mentality is on full display.</li>
<li>Fed Chair Powell has been itching to cut interest rates.&nbsp;Clearly, the bond market is not only defying him, but it is telling him he is wrong. Powell will be participating in a Q&amp;A.&nbsp;We will be paying close attention to what he says.</li>
<li>San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is saying there is no urgency to cut rates.</li>
<li>Wall Street seems to be coming around.&nbsp;A major bank is accepting the real risk of a rate hike.&nbsp;Of course, members and readers of The Arora Report, <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/stock-market-032924/">already knew in advance</a> that the data could force the Fed&rsquo;s hand to raise rates at a time when everyone expects rate cuts.</li>
<li>Lower Treasury bonds mean higher yields in the U.S.&nbsp;Higher yields mean a higher dollar.</li>
<li>Central Banks of China, India, and Indonesia intervened in the forex market to defend their currencies against the dollar.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3>International Monetary Fund (IMF)</h3>
IMF is warning the U.S. on excessive spending and ballooning debt.&nbsp;IMF is also increasing its forecast of global growth in 2024 to 3.2% from 3.1%.
<h3>Housing Slows</h3>
After a breakneck pace, new home construction is finally slowing. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>March housing starts came at 1.321M vs. 1.485M consensus.</li>
<li>March building permits came at 1.458M vs. 1.518M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3>China &ndash; Beneath The Surface</h3>
China GDP growth beat the consensus.&nbsp;In The Arora Report analysis, looking beneath the surface, there is weakness. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>GDP came at 5.3% year-over-year vs. 4.8% consensus.</li>
<li>March Industrial Production came at 4.5% year-over-year vs. 6.0% consensus.</li>
<li>March Retail Sales came at 3.1% year-over-year vs. 5.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3>Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/amzn#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/aapl#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/goog#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/meta#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/qqq#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3>Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
<h3>Gold</h3>
The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade.&nbsp;Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (ARCA:GLD).&nbsp;The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV).
<h3>Oil</h3>
The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ARCA:USO).
<h3>Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) halving is projected to be on April 19.&nbsp; So far, whales have been very successful in using the halving as a pump to get mom and pop excited to buy bitcoin over $70,000 while whales themselves took profits.
Bitcoin is trading around $63,000 as of this writing.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp;The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp;When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3>Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.&nbsp;Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever<a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter"> </a><a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.
This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga&#39;s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

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Prudent Investors Pay Attention To The Extraordinary Treasuries' Move – Momo Obliviously Buys Stocks

U.S. Treasury yields have reached their highest levels since mid-November 2023, driven by a mix of economic resilience, persistent fiscal spending <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38186082/this-puts-the-fed-in-quite-a-tricky-position-7-economists-weigh-in-on-march-inflati">and resuming inflationary pressures. </a>
These factors are steering the market&#8217;s expectations away from earlier predictions of imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, significantly impacting the cost of issuing U.S. government debt.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury Bond ETFs Fall To Mid-November 2023 Lows</h1>
On Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 4.61%, a peak not observed since Nov. 14, 2023. 
This represents a substantial increase of approximately 40 basis points since the beginning of the month.
Additionally, the daily chart for the 10-year Treasury yield shows the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have created a &#8220;golden cross&#8221; pattern, signaling the confirmation of an uptrend and the possibility of further increases, with the next resistance level now projected at 5%.
Concurrently, bond ETFs have experienced notable declines. The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) fell to its lowest level since Nov. 13, 2023, reflecting a 5.6% decrease since its February 2024 high. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has seen an even steeper drop, falling more than 11% from its January peak.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: US 10-Year Yields For Golden-Cross Pattern</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292683" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15163420/image-80.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Hot Economic Data Fuels Speculation On Fewer And Delayed Fed Rate Cuts</h1>
Recent robust U.S. economic indicators have contributed to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve&#8217;s actions. 
March 2024 saw U.S. retail sales jump unexpectedly by 0.7%, against <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38253316/us-retail-sales-boom-well-above-forecasts-rise-4-on-the-year-blowout-report-economi">a forecast of 0.3%</a>. This comes on the heels of higher-than-expected inflation figures and a tighter-than-expected jobs report earlier in the month.
Originally, markets had anticipated the Fed to start reducing rates in June 2024, with a total of three cuts throughout the year. However, current speculations suggest the Fed might only implement a single rate cut this year. 
Traders now see only a 20% probability of a June rate cut and the anticipated overall easing for 2024 stands at around 40 basis points, indicating fewer than two quarter-percentage-point cuts.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts Reassess Fed&#8217;s Rate Path: UBS Sees Fed Hiking Again</h1>
Analysts have quickly adjusted their forecasts on Fed interest rates in response to this shift in economic signals. 
A significant caution came from UBS Group AG strategists Jonathan Pingle and Bhanu Baweja, who highlighted the risk of inflation not decreasing to the Fed&#8217;s target, potentially necessitating a return to rate hikes and triggering a significant downturn in bonds and stocks.
As reported by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-15/fed-hiking-rates-to-6-5-is-real-risk-for-ubs-strategists?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg</a>, they warned of a possible return to rate hikes if inflation remains above 2.5%, predicting that the Federal Funds rate could reach 6.5% by mid-next year.
The UBS team described a &#8220;no-landing scenario&#8221; where further rate hikes could lead to a significant flattening of the U.S. Treasury curve and a potential 10%-15% decline in stock market values. 
They also forecasted wider credit spreads and a considerable adjustment in market multiples, cautioning that investors are beginning to worry about an overheated economy that could maintain high inflation level.
Photo: Funtap on Shutterstock

Government

Bond Yields Surge To 6-Month Highs As Likelihood Of No-Landing Scenario Increases: UBS Warns Of Potential Fed Rate Hikes To 6.5%

Wall Street can breathe a sigh of relief following the tense events on Saturday night, when Iran launched <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38240360/what-a-full-blown-war-between-israel-and-iran-could-entail-according-to-one-report">airstrikes against Israel</a>.
For now, the specter of escalation towards a larger conflict seems to have been mitigated, as both U.S. and U.K. allies <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38241324/slow-things-down-biden-tells-netanyahu-to-think-response-through-after-iran-missile-attack-on-israel">have sternly cautioned </a>Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against any retaliatory actions towards Tehran. 
Major U.S. indices moved sideways in midday trading on Monday in New York, halting the significant losses recorded last Friday and the risks of a further extension following l<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38252086/oil-gold-markets-swing-from-war-fears-to-calm-over-israel-iran-tensions-what-analys">ast Saturday&#8217;s heightened geopolitical tensions. </a>
The market sentiment was further bolstered by a retail sales report that significantly exceeded expectations, showing a 0.7% increase last month. However, this robust data slightly tempered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with investors currently factoring in about 40 basis points of cuts by year-end. 
Bond yields sharply surged, causing downward pressures in fixed-income assets. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond spiked 11 basis points to 4.75%, reaching the highest in six months. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) plummeted 1.8%. 
Gold inched 0.3% higher, while crude oil fell 1.5%. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 1.8%, after witnessing substantial volatility over the weekend. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,113.63</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,136.77</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>18,025.65</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,997.89</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:18 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.2% up to $511.85, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.3% to $381.19 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) held steady at $438.54, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.9%, followed by the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>), down 0.7%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) fell 3.4% after the company announced plans to lay off 10% of its global workforce. </li>
<li>Goldman Sachs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) rallied&nbsp;3.6% after the bank announced first-quarter earnings that topped Street&#8217;s estimates. </li>
<li>Charles Schwab (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCHW#NYSE">SCHW</a>) rose 3.8% after reporting slightly stronger-than-expected earnings. </li>
<li>Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRM#NYSE">CRM</a>) fell 5.2% after RBC analysts raised uncertainties regarding the potential acquisition of Informatica Inc, which simultaneously fell 11%. </li>
</ul>
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38253316/us-retail-sales-boom-well-above-forecasts-rise-4-on-the-year-blowout-report-economi">US Retail Sales Boom Well Above Forecasts, Rise 4% On The Year: &#8216;Blowout Report,&#8217; Economists Say</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

SCHW

Stocks Stay Afloat On Strong Retail Sales, Middle East Relief; Bonds Drop: What's Driving Markets Monday?

U.S. retail sales surprisingly surged well above economic forecasts last month, spiking to a 4% annual growth and highlighting the resilience of American consumers <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/04/38247125/retail-sales-rises-more-than-expected-in-march-indicate-strong-consumer-spending">despite increasing inflationary pressures.</a>
On monthly basis, retail sales grew 0.7%, softening from the 0.9% pace in February but well above the predicted 0.3% rise, the Census Bureau reported Monday. 
Among spending categories, notable monthly increases were in non-store retailers, rising 2.7%; gasoline stations, rising 2.1%; and miscellaneous store retailers, rising 2.1%. 
Excluding autos and gasoline stations, retail sales surged by 1% from February 2024, marking the strongest monthly pace since January 2023. 
As a reaction, Treasury yields spiked as investors further dwindled expectations for Fed rate cuts. Interest-rate futures currently price in less than 40 basis points of cuts by year-end, creating another volatile session for bonds, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), down 1.6%. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Retail Sales Excluding Autos And Gas Stations Experience Strongest Growth In Over a Year</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-292136" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/15110508/image-76.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Analysts Reactions</h1>
&#8220;A blowout retail sales report,&#8221; Bank of America said in a note, highlighting the &#8220;March retail sales report was unequivocally strong.&#8221; 
Economists at Bank of America added that non-store retailers made the most significant contribution, likely fueled by a promotional event in March, while increased gas spending, driven by higher prices, contributed as well, yet for &#8220;bad reasons, namely higher gas prices.&#8221;
The March report also showed &#8220;large upward revisions to the January and February data,&#8221; which should bode for the full-quarter retail spending narrative. 
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, adjusted his prediction, now anticipating the Fed to commence rate cuts in September instead of June, with expectations of two quarter-percentage-point reductions in the federal funds rate by the year&#8217;s end.
&#8220;The economy is growing solidly in early 2024 and the Fed has little reason to worry about a recession near-term, keeping their focus squarely on controlling inflation,&#8221; said Comerica Bank. 
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, noted that robust consumer sales and low unemployment have propelled companies to record profits, but this situation has also put &#8220;the Fed on its back foot.&#8221;
Although strong corporate profits and the prospect of lower rates have buoyed markets, Zaccarelli suggests exercising caution in the near term due to the increasing tension between these factors.
&#8220;Another beat for U.S. economic activity,&#8221; said Mohamed El Erian, economic adviser at Allianz. The expert views the U.S. retail sales report as supporting the notion of ongoing &#8220;U.S. economic exceptionalism&#8221; and, for the time being, dispels worries regarding the gradual decline in household balance sheets.
&#8220;The consumer is consuming, a lot. &nbsp;If you were looking for an economic slowdown, you aren't getting it,&#8221; Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group, said. 
Read Now: &#8216;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/04/38244436/breaking-tesla-said-to-be-laying-off-over-14-000-employees">There Is Nothing I Hate More,&#8217; Elon Musk Tells Employees As Tesla Said To Be Laying Off Over 14,000 Workers To Slash Costs (UPDATED)</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Retail Sales

US Retail Sales Boom Well Above Forecasts, Rise 4% On The Year: 'Blowout Report,' Economists Say

In a week already ablaze with market fervor sparked by inflation data surpassing expectations and prompting a jolting reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut projections, Friday witnesses heightened volatility, fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/middle-east"> in the Middle East.</a>
Israel is bracing for an attack from Iran, which could occur within the next 48 hours or even earlier, according to various media sources. 
White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stated that an Iranian attack on Israel poses a "real" and "viable" threat. 
According to the Times of Israel, Hezbollah has launched a rocket barrage into Northern Israel. Meanwhile, the USS Dwight Eisenhower aircraft carrier has sailed north through the Red Sea toward Israel in a show of deterrence from the Biden administration, as an attempt to intercept missiles and drones fired by Iran.
Market volatility, as indicated by the CBOE VIX Index, experienced a sharp spike, with the fear gauge surging by 23%, marking the most significant daily increase since late April 2022 and surpassing the uptick observed during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023.
Stock indices plunged deeply into the red, with the S&amp;P 500 declining by 1.4% and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.7%. Notably, no sectors managed to evade losses on Friday.
Amid escalating threats in the Middle East, oil prices surged, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude climbing by 1.2% to reach $87 per barrel.
Investors flocked to safe-haven Treasuries in search of a liquidity shelter, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) up 1%. 
Gold faced a wild session, with the yellow metal spiking to a new-record high to $2,400 per ounce, before falling to $2,370. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) was down 1.7%, amid a worsening risk sentiment. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart Of The Day: VIX Spikes Over 20%, In The Most Volatile Day For Markets Since Late April 2022</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-290059" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12130750/image-38.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices &amp; ETFs</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>37,950.16</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>199.18</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,118.62</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,982.40</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>СВОЕ VIX</td>
<td>18.72</td>
<td>25.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1:10 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) tumbled 1.5% to $510.49, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) fell 1.3% to $379.75 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) plummeted 1.6% to $438.00, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) felt the heaviest losses, down 1.8%, followed by the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLB#NYSE">XLB</a>), down 1.7%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) tumbled nearly 6%, despite reporting better-than-expected results last quarter, as the net interest income fell below expectations. </li>
<li>Other financial companies reacting to earnings were Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), down 2%, Wells Fargo Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), down 0.5%, BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>), down 2.3%, and State Street Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STT#NYSE">STT</a>), flat for the day. </li>
<li>Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) dropped 4.5% following reports that China is urging national telecom companies to curb reliance on foreign chips. Peer Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) fell 4%. </li>
<li>Arista Network Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ANET#NYSE">ANET</a>) plummeted 9% on a double downgrade by Rosenblatt Securities.</li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38223912/us-energy-stocks-eye-9th-week-of-gains-as-iran-israel-tensions-escalate-oil-prices-spike-above-9">Oil Prices Spike Above $90 A Barrel As Iran-Israel Tensions Escalate: US Energy Stocks Eye 9th Week Of Gains</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Politics

ANET

INTC

XLRE

VIX Rockets 25% On Most Volatile Session In 2 Years; Oil Rises As Israel Braces For Iranian Attack: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Investors in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) are grappling with unexpected challenges as inflation heats up, sending shockwaves through <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">the bond market.</a> 
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, once among the most favored bond funds of 2023, has seen a dramatic reversal of fortune, plunging to fresh lows in 2024 following a string of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data releases.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Fears Spark Sell-Off In TLT</h2>
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, like many bond funds, witnessed a sharp decline after the release of March&#8217;s Consumer Price Index, which surpassed expectations. 
The interest rate-sensitive ETF dropped 1.3%, contributing to its year-to-date decline, now standing at 9.17%. This marked a stark contrast to its performance last year when it garnered significant investor interest, attracting a staggering $24.8 billion in inflows, the most of any fixed-income ETF.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="700" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091133/US_Inflation_Rate-1024x700.png" alt="" class="wp-image-289544" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091133/US_Inflation_Rate-1024x700.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091133/US_Inflation_Rate-300x205.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091133/US_Inflation_Rate-768x525.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091133/US_Inflation_Rate.png 1200w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38201153/producer-inflation-shows-mixed-signals-in-march-keeps-risks-of-high-for-longer-inte">Producer Inflation Shows Mixed Signals In March, Keeps Risks Of High-For-Longer Interest Rates Alive</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Reassessing Rate Expectations</h1>
At the onset of 2024, investors were optimistic about a favorable rate environment, betting on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s ability to tame inflation and drive down rates. 
However, a series of robust inflation reports from January to March seemed to have dashed those hopes. With the core Consumer Price Index surging month-over-month, concerns about persistent inflationary pressures resurfaced, prompting a reassessment of rate-cut expectations.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Technical Analysis: TLT&#8217;s Downtrend</h1>
The technical setup for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF reflected the prevailing bearish sentiment. 
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="629" height="450" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091228/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.55.10-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-289548" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091228/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.55.10-PM.png 629w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091228/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.55.10-PM-300x215.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px" /></figure>
<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart: Benzinga Pro</a>
With the ETF&#8217;s share price below its key moving averages, including the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day SMAs, the current trend is strongly bearish. 
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="629" height="450" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091315/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.52.42-PM-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-289552" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091315/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.52.42-PM-1.png 629w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/12091315/Screenshot-2024-04-12-at-1.52.42-PM-1-300x215.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px" /></figure>
<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chart: Benzinga Pro</a>
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also gave a bearish signal at -0.94, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated oversold conditions at 36. 
Bollinger Bands analysis reinforced the bearish outlook, with iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF trading in the lower band, suggesting selling pressure in the near term.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Silver Linings</h1>
Despite the gloomy outlook for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, there are potential silver linings. While elevated inflation readings in the first quarter are concerning, they may not necessarily indicate a return to persistently high inflation. Furthermore, even if inflation remains moderately elevated, it could still fall below previous peaks in 2021 and 2022.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF faces significant headwinds amid mounting inflationary pressures and shifting rate expectations. 
As investors navigate this challenging landscape, the technical indicators underscored the current downtrend in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, signaling caution for those considering exposure to long-duration bonds. 
With inflation dynamics evolving and uncertainty prevailing, the future trajectory of the ETF remained uncertain, leaving investors to closely monitor economic data and Fed policy shifts for further insights.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/04/38098774/top-10-us-high-yield-corporate-bonds-with-returns-over-20-in-april-2024">Top 10 US High-Yield Corporate Bonds With Returns Over 20% In April 2024</a>
Photo: Rzoze19 via Shutterstock

Technicals

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Investors Face Heat As Inflation Surprises

The latest April report on U.S. consumer confidence paints a bleak picture, showcasing a sharp decline in overall morale and a disturbing surge in inflation expectations among American consumers, according to data released Friday by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/university-of-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index">the University of Michigan. </a>
"A slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled.&#8221; Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu, said.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">UMich Consumer Sentiment Report For March: Key Highlights</h2>
<ul>
<li>The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index eased from 79.4 to 77.9 in April, missing expectations of 79. </li>
<li>The sub-index for consumer expectations inched marginally down from 77.4 to 77, below the expected 77.6.</li>
<li>The sub-index for current conditions fell from 82.5 to 79.3, below the expected 82.2. </li>
<li>The year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 2.9% to 3.1%. Long-term inflation expectations rose from 2.8% to 3%. </li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Economist Takeaways</h3>
According to Joanne Hsu, &#8220;sentiment moved sideways for the fourth straight month, as consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy.&#8221;
She highlighted risks the progress on disinflation may have stalled, as inflation expectations soared. 
&#8220;Overall, consumers are reserving judgment about the economy in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy,&#8221; she added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks extended early session losses after the release, with the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) down 0.8% and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) down 1.1%. 
Gold prices, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose further, up 1.5%, with the yellow metal breaking fresh record highs above $2,400 per ounce.
Treasury yields saw a material decline as investors flocked to safe havens. The 10-year yield fell 10 basis points, retracing half of the post-inflation move. 
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rallied 1.2%. 
Sector-wise, only the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) managed to trade in the green, buoyed by rising oil prices, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soaring above $87 a barrel on rising tensions in the Middle East. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38212196/inflation-upends-feds-plans-when-do-wall-street-analysts-expect-first-interest-rate">Inflation Upends Fed&#8217;s Plans: When Do Wall Street Analysts Expect First Interest Rate Cut?</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

Consumer Sentiment Worsens In April, Inflation Expectations Rise Further: Stocks Fall, Gold Surges Above $2,400

Investors can breathe a sigh of relief on Thursday as last month&#8217;s Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation turned out slightly lower than expected, albeit with some caveats across different <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/04/38206965/mild-producer-price-data-follows-consumer-price-shock-yet-economists-raise-doubts">measures within the basket. </a>
Stocks rebounded by noon trading in New York, yet the surge fell short of recovering Wednesday&#8217;s losses, indicating lingering nervousness regarding the rate-path outlook. 
Traders have significantly adjusted their expectations for the Fed&#8217;s future actions in the past 24 hours, pushing the potential first-rate cut from June to September, with less than two cuts priced in by year-end.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed the broader market, up 1.2%, driven by a rally in the semiconductor industry, with Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) surging 3.1% following a 2% increase the previous day.
Treasury yields stayed flat in the short-end, while inching higher in the long-end of the curve, triggering further declines in long-dated Treasury bonds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) was down 0.2%, on track to the lowest close in nearly six months. 
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) held broadly steady. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted at a potential interest-rate cut in June, pushing back fears of delay linked to U.S. inflation and the Fed&#8217;s actions. 
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), continued to show strong resilience, rising nearly 1% on track to a new record-high close. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) softened 0.5% to $70,200. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday's Performance In US Major Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>18,231.11</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,044.59</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,192.43</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,482.85</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) rose 0.7% to $517.50, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) flat at $384.83 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) rose 1.2% to $443.69, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) outperformed, up 1.4%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) fell the most, down by 0.4%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>) rose 3.8% after Bank of America upgraded the retail giant from Neutral to Buy and raised the price target from $110 to $113. </li>
<li>Paramount Global (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PARA#NASDAQ">PARA</a>) rallied 6.5%, marking the strongest daily performance within the S&amp;P 500, after rumors of the company mulling the sale of VidCon. </li>
<li>Globe Life Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GL#NYSE">GL</a>) plummeted by over 35% following allegations of insurance fraud and pyramid scheme behaviors made by short-seller Fuzzy Panda.</li>
<li>CarMax Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KMX#NYSE">KMX</a>) tumbled 11% after missing earning estimates last quarter. </li>
<li>Nikola Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKLA#NASDAQ">NKLA</a>) fell nearly 20% after the company&#8217;s proposal for a reverse stock split. </li>
<li>Alpine Immune Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALPN#NASDAQ">ALPN</a>) skyrocketed 37% after Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VRTX#NASDAQ">VRTX</a>) announced a $4.9 billion deal to buy Alpine Immune Sciences for $65 per share, implying a 38% premium from Wednesday&#8217;s close. </li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/24/04/38206364/andy-jassy-says-amazon-has-its-hand-in-every-layer-of-the-generative-ai-stack-this-is-going-to-trans">Andy Jassy Says Amazon Has Its Hand In Every Layer Of The Generative AI Stack: &#8216;This Is Going To Transform Virtually Every Experience&#8217;</a>
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

ALPN

NKLA

PARA

VRTX

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Stocks Bounce Back With Tech, Gold Gaining After Modest Producer Inflation Data: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

Inflation affecting American producers shows mixed readings in March, with the headline figure falling short of estimates Thursday while the underlying gauge exceeded them, maintaining market uncertainties about potential delays <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">in interest rate cuts.</a>
The Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a year-on-year increase of 2.1% last month, reaching its highest level in nearly a year.
This followed the release of unexpectedly robust consumer inflation data on Wednesday, sending significant shockwaves across markets. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">March PPI Report: Key Highlights </h3>
<ul>
<li>The headline PPI surged by 2.1% in March 2024 compared to the previous year, surpassing the previous annual rate of 1.6% and missing expectations of 2.2%.</li>
<li>The month-on-month increase in the headline PPI was 0.2% in March, marking a deceleration from the previous 0.6% surge and missing estimates of 0.3%. </li>
<li>The PPI for goods witnessed a 0.1% monthly decline, affected by a 1.6% drop in the energy item. </li>
<li>The PPI for services saw a 0.3% monthly surge, with transportation and warehousing rising by 0.8%. </li>
<li>The core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose from 2.2% to 2.4% annually, more than the expected 2.3% rise. </li>
<li>On a monthly basis, the core PPI inched 0.2% higher, decelerating from the previous 0.3% and matching estimates. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>PPI Measure</th>
<th>Feb. 2024</th>
<th>Mar. 2024</th>
<th>Exp.</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Headline (Y/Y)</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Headline (M/M)</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core (Y/Y)</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core (M/M)</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions </h3>
Prior to the PPI release, markets assigned a 35% chance of a rate cut in July, a 65% probability for September and factored in a total of 40 basis points of rate cuts by year end, or less than two cuts. 
Treasury yields fell across the board, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield down 4 basis points to 4.94%. On Wednesday, long-dated Treasury bonds tumbled, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) dropping 2.2%. The dollar pushed further higher. 
Gold, as tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose 0.5% to $2,343 per ounce. 
Futures on major U.S. stock indices slightly recovered overnight losses in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premarket">Thursday&#8217;s premarket</a> session, with the S&amp;P 500 index down 0.1%. On Wednesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) closed 1% lower. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38199244/wall-street-braces-for-another-red-day-ahead-of-more-inflation-data-while-bitcoin-holds-above-70">Wall Street Braces For Another Red Day Ahead Of More Inflation Data While Bitcoin Holds Above $70K: Analyst Sees Any Pullback As &#8216;Phenomenal Buying Opportunity&#8217;</a>
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Producer Inflation Shows Mixed Signals In March, Keeps Risks Of High-For-Longer Interest Rates Alive

Minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March underscore escalating uncertainties regarding the future of inflation among various Fed members, intensifying concerns about interest rates on a day marked by another unforeseen uptick <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/04/38181302/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-to-3-5-in-march-derails-june-rate-cut-hopes">in the consumer price index.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">March FOMC Minutes: Key Highlights</h3>
<ul>
<li>Participants generally expressed uncertainty regarding the persistence of high inflation and conveyed the view that recent data &#8220;had not increased their confidence&#8221; in the sustained movement of inflation towards the 2% target.</li>
<li>Some participants pointed out that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively widespread, indicating that they should not be dismissed as &#8220;merely statistical aberrations.&#8221;</li>
<li>Several participants highlighted the strong labor market, ongoing wage gains, and generally healthy household-sector balance sheet as factors expected to continue supporting consumption.</li>
<li>Some participants highlighted geopolitical risks that could lead to more severe supply bottlenecks or increased shipping costs, potentially exerting upward pressure on prices. They also noted that such developments could negatively impact economic growth.</li>
<li>Several participants remarked that increased efficiencies and technological innovations had the potential to boost productivity growth, potentially enabling the economy &#8220;to grow faster without raising inflation.&#8221;</li>
<li>Participants noted that the disinflation process was continuing on a path generally expected to be &#8220;somewhat uneven.&#8221;</li>
<li>Almost all participants concluded that it would be &#8220;appropriate&#8221; to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year if the economy progressed generally as anticipated.</li>
<li>They added that it would not be appropriate to reduce interest rates until they had acquired greater confidence that inflation was steadily moving towards 2%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions</h3>
Stocks were unchanged following the release of March FOMC minutes, with SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) down 1% for the day. 
Treasury yields held at session highs, with the policy-sensitive 2-year yield up 21 basis points to 4.96%, on track to close at the highest since late November 2023. 
Bonds extended losses with the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/04/38181302/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-to-3-5-in-march-derails-june-rate-cut-hopes">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down over 2%. 
Real estate stocks were the hardest hit, with the Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) down 4.5%
Energy stocks managed to flip to gains, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) up 0.4% as oil prices rose. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38186082/this-puts-the-fed-in-quite-a-tricky-position-7-economists-weigh-in-on-march-inflati">&#8216;This Puts The Fed In Quite A Tricky Position&#8217;: 7 Economists Weigh In On March Inflation Report</a>
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Fed Minutes Reveal Growing Unease Over Inflation Path: Not 'Merely Statistical Aberrations'

An inflation surprise greeted investors on Wednesday, sparking significant apprehension about the future of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">interest rates</a>.
The discussion regarding Fed rate cuts seems to be postponed for the time being following a surge in the inflation rate to 3.5% in March 2024, surpassing estimates <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/04/38181302/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-to-3-5-in-march-derails-june-rate-cut-hopes">of a 3.4% increase. </a>
What&#8217;s even more concerning is that core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained steady at 3.8%, defying expectations of a decline to 3.7%.
Many economists cautioned Wednesday there is no chance the Fed will reduce interest rates in June, with the likelihood of higher-for-longer <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38186082/this-puts-the-fed-in-quite-a-tricky-position-7-economists-weigh-in-on-march-inflati">interest rates gaining pace. </a>
Money markets are pricing in a 44-basis-point reduction in rates by year-end, with September being considered the most probable option for the onset of the easing cycle. Yet there are increasing risks that September could represent the sole reduction in 2024. 
By midday trading in New York, all major indices were in the red, with small caps underperforming large caps. Sector-wise, real estate stocks were the hardest hit, given their heightened sensitivity to interest rates. 
Yields on two-year Treasurys spiked by 20 basis points to 4.95%, registering the widest one-day increase in more than a year. Bonds collapsed, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) sinking 1.6%. 
The greenback served as a safe haven, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), as measured by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), rising by 1.1%. This marked its strongest session since the Silicon Valley Bank failure in March 2023.
Gold experienced a decline of 0.6%, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) only eased by 0.2%, with both assets displaying some resilience despite the widespread market volatility.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,149.49</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>17,952.05</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>38,377.89</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,026.91</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) plummeted 1.2% to $513.26, the&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) was 1.3% down to $383.79 and the tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 1.1% to $437.32, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro data</a>.&nbsp;
Sector-wise, the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) plummeted, down over 4%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) managed to trim losses, down only by 0.3%. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Deckers Outdoor Corp. tumbled 6.8%, marking the worst performance among S&amp;P 500 stocks, after Truist Securities downgraded the company from Buy to Hold and lowered the price target from $983 to $864. </li>
<li>Extra Space Storage Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EXR#NYSE">EXR</a>), SBA Communications Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBAC#NYSE">SBAC</a>), Public Storage (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PSA#NYSE">PSA</a>) American Tower Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMT#NYSE">AMT</a>), were the weakest real estate stocks within the S&amp;P 500, each down by about 6%. </li>
<li>Nvidia Corp. rose 1.7%, marking the best performance within the Nasdaq 100, as Morgan Stanley raised the chipmaker&#8217;s price target to $1,000.</li>
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) fell nearly 3%, representing the worst performance within the Dow Jones, as the company reported a 36.2% and 66.7% annual declines in commercial and defense shipments, respectively. Morgan Stanley and Stifel cut price targets on the stock. </li>
<li>Delta Air Lines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>)&nbsp;reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, buoyed by strong travel demand. Shares fell 0.9%. </li>
<li>Hexcel Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HXL#NYSE">HXL</a>) tumbled over 11%, following the unexpected announcement late Tuesday of the appointment of Thomas C. Gentile III as chief executive officer and president.</li>
<li>Regional banks fell sharply following the hot inflation data, with Flushing Financial Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FFIC#NYSE">FFIC</a>), Valley National Bancorp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VLY#NYSE">VLY</a>) and ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SFBS#NYSE">SFBS</a>) each falling by 8%</li>
</ul>
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/24/04/38184776/amc-ceo-says-bankruptcy-is-inconceivable-as-shares-hit-52-week-lows-2025-2026-are-going-to-">AMC CEO Says Bankruptcy Is &#8216;Inconceivable&#8217; As Shares Hit 52-Week Lows: &#8216;2025, 2026 Are Going To Be Gangbusters&#8217;</a>
Photo via Shutterstock.

Currency ETFs

Small Cap

FFIC

SBAC

SFBS

Stocks Sink On Worrisome Inflation Data, Yields Spike On Rate Cut Delays, Dollar Rallies: What's Driving Markets Wednesday?

A bond trader has just placed a record-breaking single bet by going long on December 2024 <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">short-term interest rate futures. </a>
This strategy will pay off if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at least three times by the end of the year, a scenario that is not yet fully priced into the market following recent robust economic data and higher-than-expected inflation figures.
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures — the tool used to assess market wagers on Fed interest rates — suggest that traders are anticipating a total of 68 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year.
What Happened: A significant transaction involving 75,000 December 2024 SOFR futures contracts through a block trade occurred shortly after 9 a.m. New York time on Tuesday, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/bond-trader-places-record-futures-bet-on-eve-of-inflation-data?srnd=homepage-americas&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">according</a> to Bloomberg. 
The CME Group verified this as the most substantial transaction for this product ever recorded, the report said. Block trades are substantial, privately negotiated transactions conducted at a single price.
The block trade for the December 2024 SOFR futures was executed at 95.320. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Bond Whale Bets Big On Fed Rate Cuts </h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="495" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27-1024x495.png" alt="" class="wp-image-284602" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27-1024x495.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27-300x145.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27-768x372.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27-1536x743.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/09161856/image-27.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
Why It Matters: The value of these futures could significantly increase if the March consumer price index data due Wednesday morning indicates lower-than-anticipated inflation. 
Such an outcome could lead to renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will enact at least three rate cuts this year. 
Additionally, the trade might have been executed to close out a short position, thereby minimizing risk in anticipation of the upcoming data release.
On the other hand, if the inflation figures are higher than expected, the possibility of witnessing higher-for-longer interest rates increases, which would further reduce market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Under such circumstances, the value of the December 2024 SOFR futures would decline.
Market Reactions: Treasury yields slightly fell Tuesday ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s inflation report. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHY#NASDAQ">SHY</a>) inched 0.1% higher, the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) rose 0.4% and the iShares 20+ Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rallied 0.9%. 
Read now: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38169708/traders-brace-for-inflation-data-june-rate-cut-hopes-hang-by-thread-10-etfs-that-co">Traders Brace For Inflation Data, June Rate Cut Hopes Hang By Thread: 10 ETFs That Could Be Volatile Wednesday</a>
Federal Reserve illustration created using artificial intelligence via MidJourney.

iShares Trust Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund

Bond Trader Places Largest-Ever Bet On Fed Rate Cuts In 2024 Ahead Of March Inflation Report

Investors&#8217; eyes are eagerly fixed on the March inflation data set to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.
According to the consensus among economists, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for March is expected to rise to 3.4%, up from the previous 3.2%, while core inflation, which excludes energy and food items, is anticipated to ease slightly <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/04/38150279/march-inflation-data-preview-what-figures-would-boost-odds-of-june-interest-rate-">from 3.8% to 3.7%.</a>
Both monthly readings are projected at 0.3%, a slight deceleration compared to the 0.4% observed in February.
Wells Fargo sits at the high end of the forecast range, predicting a headline rate of 3.5% and a core rate of 3.8%. The robustness of headline figures is attributed, in part, to the uptick in gasoline prices, with expectations of a strengthening in food inflation as well.
Analysts at Wells Fargo anticipate March&#8217;s report will reveal hints of two inflation dynamics: early-year noise and a longer journey of inflation back to the Fed&#8217;s target.
On the softer side, Bank of America expects a headline rate of 3.3% and a core rate of 3.7%. It anticipates a more subdued inflation profile in March&#8217;s report, with core inflation moderating to 0.24% month-over-month and headline inflation at 0.25%. The primary factor behind March&#8217;s disinflation compared to February is a 0.05% monthly decline in core goods prices, driven by a decrease in used and new car prices.
"A report in line with our expectations would leave us more confident with our call for the Fed to start its cutting cycle in June… a much firmer report is the key risk to our policy outlook,&#8221; Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau wrote. 
Presently, market participants are estimating a 57% likelihood of a rate cut in June, while also factoring in a total of 70 basis points in Fed cuts by the end of the year.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">March CPI Preview: What Wall Street Economists Expect</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td> CPI</td>
<td>February realized</td>
<td>March median consensus</td>
<td>March Highest (Wells Fargo)</td>
<td>March Lowest (BofA)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core (M/M)</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Headline (M/M)</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core (Y/Y)</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Headline (Y/Y)</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Reacting To Previous CPI Data</h1>
The most recent inflation report for February, released on March 12, came in hotter than expected, with the annual headline CPI rate reaching 3.2%, surpassing the anticipated 3.1%. 
The annual core CPI rate slowed from 3.9% to 3.8%, though it still surpassed market projections of 3.7%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">5 ETFs Surging After February&#8217;s CPI Data</h1>
<ul>
<li>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NYSE">SMH</a>), closing 3.2% higher on March 12</li>
<li>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#NASDAQ">MAGS</a>), up 3.1%. </li>
<li>Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>), up 2%. </li>
<li>Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), up 1.4%</li>
<li>Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>), up 0.9%</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">5 ETFs Falling After February&#8217;s CPI Data</h1>
<ul>
<li>U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>), down 2.2%. </li>
<li>Utilities&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>), down 1%</li>
<li>iShares Bitcoin Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IBIT#NYSE">IBIT</a>) down 1%. </li>
<li>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), down 0.8%</li>
<li>Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>), down 0.4%.</li>
</ul>
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