Fresno Ranks #1 Market in the US for Multifamily Under $20M

The supply rush across the country has created a trend of slow rent growth, prompting weariness in transactions for investors. However, an oasis in a dry spell has appeared in one of The Mogharebi Group's strongest markets, Fresno, CA. Fresno has not only been immune but empowered by tight apartment supply & low vacancy.

In an article published by CoStar, Fresno ranked as the #1 Multifamily Market in the US for property under $20M for the second time in a row.

William Austin, a Sacramento, California-based director of market analytics at CoStar, stated in the CoStar article, "While rent growth is slowing nationally due to the influx of supply across the country, Fresno is still a relative exception to that." Stated Austin, "Fresno's tight apartment supply has also kept vacancy rates low: Fresno has the lowest vacancy rate on our list at 1.8%."

Across the board, The Central Valley market has benefited from vast population growth, as Californians sought lower living costs than major coastal hubs in the Bay Area and LA Metropolitan area.

According to The Fresno Bee, Fresno County has gained more than 78,000 residents since the 2010s, accounting for an 8.4% uptick over the decade. With new industries at the helm, the region has rapid economic development from logistics, tech, and healthcare sectors, which complements Fresno's agriculture industry. US Bureau of Labor Statistics states that the Fresno metro area expanded by roughly 23,000 jobs in the 12 months ending in March, with the unemployment rate reaching 6.7% at the end of the first quarter.

The trend has driven Fresno's stable rent growth of 8.9%, even during inflation. The average monthly rent nationally is about $1,600 as opposed to Fresno's comfortable average rent of $1,325, which makes it an attractive market for residents.

Austin stated, "Pricing is almost $100,000 per unit below the national average. Fresno has affordable units with low rents at a point in time where having low rents is certainly a differentiator," said Austin. "That creates an environment where you're able to get more units, which increases your net operating income (NOI) and makes for a better investment overall."

Investors have also flocked to the attractive market where abundant opportunities have paved the way for stable investment growth, with average CAP rates in Fresno at 6%. A key aspect of why investors are eyeing Fresno is due to the multifamily construction operations, which remain primarily static, especially in market-rate communities, as opposed to other markets where construction is overflowing.

CoStar's commercial real estate marketplace relied on CoStar data to analyze property sales priced at $20 million and below to present the top 10 markets that non-institutional investors might want to consider when purchasing multifamily properties.

The analysis was based primarily on three key factors for multifamily investment:

• Liquidity: Liquidity refers to the ease at which a property can be traded for its market value. In this case, trade volume was determined using the total number of apartment sales under $20 million.
  
  
• Rent growth: Year-over-year (YOY) percentage rent increases from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022.
  
  
• Demand: Net absorption of units (change in occupancy) over 12 months, from the second quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2022. Demand is expressed as a percentage of existing inventory absorbed

In the full article Fresno's metrics ranked as such:

Liquidity: 39%

Vacancy: 1.8%

Demand: 0.9%

Rent Growth: 8.9%

Average Rent: $1,325

Cap Rate: 6%

About The Mogharebi Group

The Mogharebi Group is one of the largest multifamily brokerage firms in the United States by volume. With offices throughout the western United States, The Mogharebi Group offers private investors and investment funds deep local market knowledge, an extensive global network of top real estate investors, state-of-the-art technology, and direct access to capital with over $800 million in regularly revolving inventory. For more information visit: Mogharebi.com.

For more information, visit: Mogharebi.com or contact Robin Kane, Senior Vice President of the Mogharebi Group.

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