Market Overview

KBRA Releases Research – Many Moving Pieces: COVID-19's Impact on U.S. Jobs


Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) releases research on what it believes are the three significant headwinds facing the economic recovery, namely, the ongoing challenges related to bringing the health crisis under control, behavioral scarring to both individuals and businesses, and secular changes to the economy, most notably a pull forward of technological innovation that will result in dislocation.

These headwinds are likely to slow the recovery over the near to intermediate term, reducing the probability of a relatively quick return to normal in 2021. KBRA believes these effects will also keep unemployment relatively elevated into the intermediate term as the economy adjusts, well above the 3.5% level reached coming into the pandemic, and above the Federal Reserve's recent forecast of 5.5% in Q4 2021 and 4.6% in 2022. In KBRA's view, Bloomberg's consensus figure of 6.2% for Q4 2021 seems reasonable.

To view the report, click here.

About KBRA and KBRA Europe

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and is a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is registered with ESMA as a CRA. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe is located at 6-8 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.

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