Market Overview

Juniper Research: Retailers to Lose $130bn Globally in Card-not-Present Fraud Over the Next 5 Years


Complex fraud & retail inertia key to increased losses

A new study from Juniper
 has found that retailers are set to lose some $130 billion
in digital CNP (Card-not-Present) fraud between 2018 and 2023. It
highlighted that increasingly complex approaches by fraudsters,
alongside retailers' inertia in adapting to new fraud prevention
requirements, would be key factors behind the increases in fraud
transaction value.

Juniper's new research, Online
Payment Fraud: Emerging Threats, Segment Analysis & Market Forecasts
, claimed that as cybercriminals seek to monetise their
knowledge to a wider, less tech-savvy audience, complex cross-channel
fraud will become the ‘new normal', with retailers ill-prepared to fight

For more insights, download our free whitepaper: Future
Fraud: 3 Dynamics Changing Fraud in 2019

Changes in Perception Required

The report found that eCommerce merchants remain, to a large extent,
focused on assessing fraud risk at the point of transaction. As such,
analysis in terms of session and behavioural monitoring, or validating
the identity of a user to assess fraud risk before any transaction, is
lacking. Juniper cited industry perception of FDP (Fraud Detection &
Prevention) as one of the reasons behind this, with FDP seen as a
high-cost tool used only to prevent fraud.

"A layered FDP solution naturally helps directly preventing fraud,
but it also offers major gains in terms of recovering potentially lost
revenue through false positives. This is something about which retailers
remain undereducated, and has allowed fraudsters to capitalise on
relatively low FDP spend," 
explained research author Steffen

Fraud Detection Growth

Juniper found that the perception of FDP return on investment on the
part of retailers is, in turn, hampering global FDP spend growth.
Juniper anticipates that digital payment players will spend $9.6 billion
annually on FDP solutions in 2023, although the bulk of growth over the
forecast period is likely to be driven by financial institutions and
payment service providers. This is due to awareness of FDP benefits, as
well as a requirement to deal with challenges such as open banking
systems and instant payment mechanisms.

Juniper Research provides research and analytical services to the global
hi-tech communications sector; providing consultancy, analyst reports
and industry commentary.

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