Market Overview

CoreLogic Reports July Home Prices Increased by 6.2 Percent, Homeowners Waiting to Sell for Anticipated Increase Return on Investment

  • Homeowners feel they are in a "sellers' market" and staying put for
    higher returns
  • Washington, Nevada and Idaho post double-digit annual price growth
    again in July
  • Home prices projected to increase by 5.1 percent by July 2019

CoreLogic® (NYSE:CLGX), a leading global property
information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today
released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI
Forecast for July 2018, which shows home prices rose both
year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by
6.2 percent year over year from July 2017 to July 2018. On a
month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.3 percent in July 2018
compared with June
. (June 2018 data was revised. Revisions with public
records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic
incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results
each month.)

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:

CoreLogic National Home Price Change; July 2018. (Graphic: Business Wire)

CoreLogic National Home Price Change; July 2018. (Graphic: Business Wire)

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national
home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent on
a year-over-year basis from July 2018 to July 2019. On a
month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.2
percent from July to August 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a
projection of home prices that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and
other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts
by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied
households for each state.

"With increased interest rates and home prices, the CoreLogic Home Price
Index is rising at a slower rate than it was earlier this year," said
Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. "While markets in the
western part of the country continue to experience rapid home-price
growth, many of those metros are overvalued, and will likely experience
a slowdown soon."

According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an
analysis of housing values in the country's 100 largest metropolitan
areas based on housing stock, 40 percent of metropolitan areas have an
overvalued housing market as of July 2018. The MCI analysis categorizes
home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or
overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable
levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as
disposable income). Additionally, as of July 2018, 20 percent of the top
100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 40 percent were at value.
When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 50
percent were overvalued, 12 percent were undervalued and 38 percent were
at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one
in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term,
sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home
prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Connecticut,
conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining
consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward
homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision
process. The July CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI) data
reveals that 50 percent of the top 50 markets are considered overvalued.
However, residents in many of these high-price growth markets have
expectations that might be at odds with this reality. Figure 2 shows
that 62 percent of residents in these markets expect their homes will be
worth more in three years than they are today. Meanwhile, 55 percent of
residents in no/negative growth markets believe their homes will be
worth either the same or less in three years than they are today.
Additionally, 47 percent of residents in high-price growth markets and
31 percent in lower growth markets feel they are in a "sellers' market."

"Many consumers see their homes as good investments," said Frank
Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Our consumer research
indicates homeowners, especially those in high-price growth markets, are
confident that by waiting to sell, they will receive a greater return on
investment than they would today. In other words, sellers are largely
staying put. With fewer homes on the market, price pressure will
continue to rise."


The CoreLogic HPI is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate
databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales
transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the
first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic
HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by
market segment and for the "Single-Family Combined" tier, representing
the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for
single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The
indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to
signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for
multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and
distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national
level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are
based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per
capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — "Single-Family
Combined" (both attached and detached) and "Single-Family Combined
Excluding Distressed Sales." As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital
Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of
home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at
state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The
forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence
interval with a +/- 2 percent margin of error for the index.

About The 2018 CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study

Nationwide survey of 3001 renters and homeowners conducted in first
quarter of 2018 by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. The survey has
a sampling error of +/- 1.8 percent at the total respondent level with a
95 percent confidence level.

About RTi Research

RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy
consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been
consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of
the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of
leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals
as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE:CLGX) is a leading global property information,
analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined
data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5
billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage
of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy,
location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets
CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance,
capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to
clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory
and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and
manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.
Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America,
Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI
Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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