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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in July

Economy Will Continue Expanding Through Second Half

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Aug. 17, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July to 110.7 (2016 = 100), following a 0.5 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent increase in May.

(PRNewsfoto/The Conference Board)

"The U.S. LEI increased in July, suggesting the US economy will continue expanding at a solid pace for the remainder of this year," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The strengths among the components of the leading index were very widespread, with unemployment claims, the financial components, and the ISM® New Orders Index making the largest positive contributions."

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in July to 104.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent increase in May.   

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in July to 105.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in June and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

 










Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes


2018


6-month


May


Jun


Jul


Jan to Jul



















Leading Index

109.4

r

110.0

r

110.7

p



  Percent Change

0.1

r

0.5


0.6

p

2.7


  Diffusion

60.0


80.0


95.0


90.0











Coincident Index

103.7

r

104.0

r

104.2

p



  Percent Change

0.1


0.3


0.2

p

1.4


  Diffusion

75.0


100.0


100.0


100.0











Lagging Index

105.2

r

105.4


105.2

p



  Percent Change

0.5


0.2

r

-0.2

p

1.1


  Diffusion

71.4


57.1


50.0


50.0











p  Preliminary     r  Revised









Indexes equal 100 in 2016









Source:  The Conference Board








 

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SOURCE The Conference Board

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