Market Overview

CRU: Metallurgical Coke Markets Unmoved by Trade War Tariffs


CRU: Metallurgical Coke Markets Unmoved by Trade War Tariffs

PR Newswire

LONDON, Aug. 7, 2018 /PRNewswire/ --

Metallurgical coke markets unmoved by trade war tariffs (PRNewsfoto/CRU)

The US Federal Government continues to take unprecedentedly severe steps to protect its domestic economy in the global trade arena.

Metallurgical coke has been dragged into the escalating situation by way of both a direct tariff, and consequentially, because of tariffs placed on steel. This Insight explores the reasons why the initial and direct impact on metallurgical coke markets will be minimal, and why countries such as Canada would be ill-advised to introduce retaliatory tariffs on coke.

What started in 2017 as a two-pronged investigation under the guise of protecting US's national security and trade performance has escalated into a fully-fledged global trade war. The original jurisdiction of 232 was the application of tariffs on finished steel and aluminium imports into the USA from numerous countries, including neighbours Canada and Mexico. Section 301 was focused on China, with the USA wanting to end what they deemed to be abusive trading practices with regards to their intellectual property and innovation. However, a back and forth of retaliatory measures has seen duties being recently expanded by the USA to target a wider range of Chinese goods from not only ballpoint pens to live eels, but also to the slightly more topical trade of metallurgical coke.

How section 232 has impacted coke markets
CRU holds the view that steel production in the USA will increase as a result of the 25% tariffs imposed on steel imports under Section 232. This includes the restarting of the two blast furnaces (BFs) at the US Steel Granite City site, which have a combined capacity of 2.2 Mt and were idled in 2015 after global Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices plummeted to levels below production cost. US Steel also shutdown two coke batteries at Granite City at the time the BFs were closed. Built in the early-1980s, the batteries had a combined capacity of 0.5 Mt/y and exclusively supplied the Granite City BFs. These closures are seen as permanent due to the complexities surrounding the reopening of shut coke ovens. As a result, US Steel will need to source coke from either the domestic or global markets to satisfy their newly increased demand. Considering that, in 2017, the net exports of met. coke for the USA totalled ~1.1 Mt, and domestic producers have been operating below full capacity, there should be ample domestic supply to satisfy the greater requirements associated with the Granite City BFs. This will likely be from either the existing supply agreement from Suncoke's Gateway coke operations, or from any excess capacity at US Steel's own coke ovens at Clairton.

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About CRU

CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.

Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU employs over 260 experts and has more than 10 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004.

When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.

CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.

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