Market Overview

Strategy Analytics: Smart Lock Sales to Approach 26M Units by 2023


The "Big Three" are in Control, but Non-U.S. Markets and Big Tech Brands
are Obstacles

The front door is a front-and-center opportunity for smart home
device companies according to a report just released by
. According to the report, "Smart
Home Access Control: Predictions, Players, and Products
sales of nearly 26 million units in 2023 will push the smart lock market
size past $2.4 billion. Kwikset, Schlage, and Yale will control more
than 75 percent of this market, but the looming threat of Amazon and
Google entering the smart lock arena and consumer dynamics in Europe and
Asia will complicate leading vendors' longer-term initiatives.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:

Smart Door-lock Forecast 2014 to 2023 (Graphic: Business Wire)

Smart Door-lock Forecast 2014 to 2023 (Graphic: Business Wire)

"Smart locks are important devices as consumers' utilization of smart
home technology increases," said Bill
, Director, Strategy Analytics' Smart Home Strategies
research service. "However, the strategies that have fueled the success
of Kwikset, Schlage, Yale, August, and others are providing a template
for Amazon and Google to create their own offerings. Smart lock
companies and platform providers are collaborating now, but Amazon or
Google will likely become competitors in the near future."

Additionally, as consumers' purchases of smart door locks and garage
door openers move away from early adopters and approach mass market
status, companies competing in this market such as August, Chamberlain,
Danalock, Kwikset, Schlage, and Yale must adapt to the changing dynamics
of this segment. Annual unit sales of smart door locks will grow at 19%
CAGR over the forecast period, but even as smart door lock shipments
climb, lock manufacturers and their partners will need to assess how to
overcome obstacles in markets outside the U.S.

A higher percentage of single family homes, and greater interest in
smart home automation or security services, make the U.S. the largest
market by far. Consumers in other regions have different priorities when
it comes to the smart home.

"Western Europe and Asia pose challenges for even the largest smart lock
companies," said Jack
, Senior Industry Analyst, Strategy Analytics' Smart Home
Strategies research service and author of the report. "In Western
Europe, climate control is more important, and smart locks are often not
integrated into a smart home service. In South Korea, the smart home
solutions installed by SK Telecom, Korea Telecom, or LG U-Plus in
multi-dwelling units typically have a shared entry outfitted with a
commercial-grade electronic lock system. Smart locks are popular in
China, a large and fast-growing smart home market, but indigenous brands
such as Alibaba rule."

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