Market Overview

CoreLogic Reports June Home Prices Increased by 6.8 Percent, Millennials Identify Affordability as Biggest Hurdle

  • Affordability Challenges Thwart Younger Potential Buyers
  • Washington, Nevada, Idaho and Utah Again Post Double-digit Annual
    Price Growth
  • Home Prices Projected to Increase by 5.1 Percent by June 2019

CoreLogic® (NYSE:CLGX), a leading global property
information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today
released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI
Forecast for June 2018, which shows home prices rose both
year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by
6.8 percent year over year from June 2017 to June 2018. On a
month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.7 percent in June 2018
compared with May
, according to the CoreLogic HPI. (May 2018 data was
revised. Revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure
accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to
provide updated results each month.)

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:

CoreLogic National Home Price Change; June 2018. (Graphic: Business Wire)

CoreLogic National Home Price Change; June 2018. (Graphic: Business Wire)

Looking ahead, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that the national
home-price index is projected to continue to increase by 5.1 percent on
a year-over-year basis from June 2018 to June 2019. On a
month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to be flat from June to
July 2018. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices
that is calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables.
Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices
according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

"The rise in home prices and interest rates over the past year have
eroded affordability and are beginning to slow existing home sales in
some markets," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic.
"For June, we found in CoreLogic public records data that home sales in
the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California were down 9 and 12
percent, respectively, from one year earlier. Further increases in home
prices and mortgage rates over the next year will likely dampen sales
and home-price growth."

According to the CoreLogic Market Condition Indicators (MCI), an
analysis of housing values in the country's 100 largest metropolitan
areas based on housing stock, 41 percent of metropolitan areas have an
overvalued housing market as of June 2018. The MCI analysis categorizes
home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or
overvalued, by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable
levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals (such as
disposable income). Additionally, as of June 2018, 24 percent of the top
100 metropolitan areas were undervalued, and 35 percent were at value.
When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 54
percent were overvalued, 14 percent were undervalued and 32 percent were
at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one
in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than the long-term,
sustainable level. An undervalued housing market is one in which home
prices are at least 10 percent below the sustainable level.

In 2018, CoreLogic together with RTi Research of Norwalk, Conn.,
conducted an extensive consumer housing sentiment study, combining
consumer and property insights. The study assessed attitudes toward
homeownership and the drivers of the home buying or renting decision
process. Across the U.S., the desire to own a home is significantly
higher among those in younger age cohorts. Younger millennial renters
(those under the age of 29) are significantly more likely to want to buy
a home in the next 12 months than older millennial or Generation X
renters. However, affordability for this group is a significant issue.
Sixty-three percent of younger millennials who are not interested in
home ownership identified the inability to afford a home or down payment
as the reason they are not interested in buying at this time. This is
compared with 50 percent of older millennial renters and 52 percent of
Generation X renters. For their part, boomer generation renters say
their lack of interest in home ownership is driven by a lack of need at
this stage in their lives.

"One-third of millennial renters reported feeling they cannot afford a
down payment to buy a home," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of
CoreLogic. "With home prices rising quickly over the past few years and
supplies low, first-time homebuyers face ever-growing challenges to find
and buy affordable entry-level homes. More needs to be done to help our
first-time buyers join the homeownership class."


The CoreLogic HPI is built on
industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate
databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales
transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the
first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic
HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by
market segment and for the "Single-Family Combined" tier, representing
the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for
single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The
indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to
signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for
multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type,
price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and
distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national
level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts are
based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines
the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per
capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum,
mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the
unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — "Single-Family
Combined" (both attached and detached) and "Single-Family Combined
Excluding Distressed Sales." As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI
Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital
Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of
home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at
state, Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) and ZIP Code levels. The
forecast accuracy represents a 95-percent statistical confidence
interval with a +/- 2 percent margin of error for the index.

About The 2018 CoreLogic Consumer Housing Sentiment Study

Nationwide survey of 3001 renters and homeowners conducted in first
quarter of 2018 by CoreLogic together with RTi Research. The survey has
a sampling error of +/- 1.8 percent at the total respondent level with a
95 percent confidence level.

About RTi Research

RTi Research is an innovative, global market research and brand strategy
consultancy headquartered in Norwalk, CT. Founded in 1979, RTi has been
consistently recognized by the American Marketing Association as one of
the top 50 U.S. insights companies. The company serves a broad base of
leading firms in Financial Services, Consumer Goods, and Pharmaceuticals
as well as partnering with leading academic centers of excellence.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the
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data, contact Alyson Austin at
or Allyse Sanchez at
Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are
compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary
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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE:CLGX) is a leading global property information,
analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company's combined
data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5
billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage
of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy,
location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets
CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance,
capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to
clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory
and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and
manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.
Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America,
Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI
Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All
other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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