Market Overview

Assured Guaranty Ltd. Reports Results for Second Quarter 2018

Share:
  • Shareholders' equity per share, non-GAAP operating shareholders'
    equity
    1 per share and non-GAAP adjusted book
    value
    1 per share reached new records at $60.52,
    $58.60 and $82.83, respectively.
  • Gross written premiums and PVP1 reached
    10-year records of $393 million and $454 million, respectively.
  • Reinsurance assumption and commutation transaction with Syncora
    Guarantee Inc. (SGI Transaction) was closed on June 1, 2018.

- On a GAAP basis, the SGI Transaction generated gross written
premiums of $330 million, plus $86 million in expected future credit
derivative revenue, and included transactions with $131 million in
expected losses.

- On a non-GAAP basis, the SGI Transaction generated PVP of $391
million, and included transactions with $83 million
2
in expected losses.

- The SGI Transaction reduced shareholders' equity by $0.16 per
share, and increased non-GAAP adjusted book value by $2.25 per share.

  • The Board of Directors approved an incremental $250 million share
    repurchase authorization. In second quarter 2018, 4.2 million shares
    were repurchased for $152 million, bringing year-to-date repurchases
    (through August 1, 2018) to 8.3 million shares or $300 million.
  • Net income was $75 million, or $0.67 per share.
  • Non-GAAP operating income1 was $74
    million, or $0.66 per share.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO) (AGL and, together with its
consolidated entities, Assured Guaranty or the Company) announced today
its financial results for the three-month period ended June 30, 2018
(second quarter 2018).

Summary Financial Results

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended
June 30,
2018   2017
 
Net income $ 75 $ 153
Non-GAAP operating income(1) 74 141

Gain (loss) related to the effect of consolidating financial
guaranty variable

interest entities (FG VIE consolidation) included in non-GAAP
operating

income

(4 ) 5
 
Net income per diluted share $ 0.67 $ 1.24
Non-GAAP operating income(1) per diluted share 0.66 1.16

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation included in non-GAAP

operating income per diluted share

$ (0.03 ) $ 0.05
 
Diluted shares 112.9 122.7
 
Gross written premiums (GWP) $ 393 $ 79
Present value of new business production (PVP)(1) 454 70
Gross par written 14,571 5,140
 
Summary Financial Results (continued)

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
  As of
June 30, 2018   December 31, 2017
Amount   Per Share Amount   Per Share
 
Shareholders' equity $ 6,634 $ 60.52 $ 6,839 $ 58.95
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity (1) 6,423 58.60 6,521 56.20
Non-GAAP adjusted book value (1) 9,079 82.83 9,020 77.74

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP operating shareholders'

equity

7 0.07 5 0.03

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP adjusted book value

(12 ) (0.11 ) (14 ) (0.12 )
 
Common shares outstanding 109.6 116.0

________________________________________________

(1) Please see "Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" at the end
of this press release.

1 Please see "Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures."
When a financial measure is described as "operating," it is a non-GAAP
financial measure.

2 Expected losses acquired in the SGI Transaction were $83
million when using the 6% discount rate used for PVP. On a GAAP basis,
expected losses are discounted at the risk-free rates, and were $131
million (see "economic loss development").

"For the fourth consecutive year, we increased our future earnings power
by completing a substantial strategic transaction within our industry,"
said Dominic Frederico, President and CEO of Assured Guaranty. "The
closing of our reinsurance transaction with Syncora Guarantee Inc.
brought about record new business results in the second quarter of 2018.
We continue to lead the municipal bond insurance industry and insured
57% of U.S. municipal bond par volume issued with insurance
year-to-date. And once again, we reached new highs for per share
shareholders' equity, non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity and
non-GAAP adjusted book value."

Second Quarter Results

GAAP Financial Information

Net income for second quarter 2018 was $75 million, compared with net
income of $153 million for the three-month period ended June 30, 2017
(second quarter 2017). The decrease was primarily attributable to
changes in foreign exchange rates, lower net earned premiums, and a
commutation loss of $18 million related to the SGI Transaction.
Additionally, the second quarter 2017 effective tax rate was lower than
second quarter 2018 due primarily to the release of $37 million in tax
reserves for uncertain tax positions in second quarter 2017. Unrealized
gains on credit derivatives and lower loss and loss adjustment expenses
(LAE) partially offset the decline in net income in second quarter 2018.

Foreign exchange gains and losses relate primarily to remeasurement of
premiums receivable and are due mainly to changes in the exchange rate
of the British pound sterling relative to the United States (U.S.)
dollar. Second quarter 2018 foreign exchange losses were $34 million,
compared with gains of $21 million in second quarter 2017.

Net earned premiums in second quarter 2018 were $136 million, compared
with $162 million in second quarter 2017. The decline in net earned
premiums was attributable mainly to reduced refunding activity due to a
reduction in the insured portfolio as well as fewer advanced refunding
bonds, caused by changes in tax law.

Loss and LAE was a loss of $44 million in second quarter 2018 compared
with $72 million in second quarter 2017. The losses in each period were
primarily attributable to Puerto Rico exposures.

Fair value gains on credit derivatives were $48 million in second
quarter 2018, compared with losses of $6 million in second quarter 2017.
Second quarter 2018 fair value gains were attributable primarily to
price improvements on the underlying collateral of the Company's insured
credit default swaps, while second quarter 2017 losses were attributable
primarily to narrowing of the Company's credit spreads. Except for
credit impairment, the fair value adjustments on credit derivatives in
the insured portfolio are non-economic adjustments that reverse to zero
over the remaining term of that portfolio.

Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (unaudited)

(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended
June 30,
2018   2017
Revenues:
Net earned premiums $ 136 $ 162
Net investment income 99 101
Net realized investment gains (losses) (2 ) 15
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives:
Realized gains (losses) and other settlements 1 5
Net unrealized gains (losses) 47   (11 )
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives 48 (6 )

Fair value gains (losses) on financial guaranty variable interest
entities (FG

VIEs)

2 12
Commutation gains (losses) (18 )
Other income (loss) (44 ) 24  
Total revenues 221 308
Expenses:
Loss and LAE 44 72
Amortization of deferred acquisition costs 4 4
Interest expense 24 25
Other operating expenses 62   57  
Total expenses 134   158  
Income (loss) before income taxes 87 150
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 12   (3 )
Net income (loss) $ 75   $ 153  
 

Economic Loss Development

Economic loss development in second quarter 2018 was a loss of $19
million, which primarily comprised increases in expected losses on
certain Puerto Rico exposures. This was partially offset by a benefit of
$28 million in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that
was mainly related to improved collateral performance. The SGI
Transaction added $131 million of net expected loss on June 1, 2018,
comprising primarily U.S. RMBS transactions.

Roll Forward of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (1)

(in millions)

         

Net Expected

Loss to be

Paid (Recovered)
as of
March 31, 2018

Net Expected

Loss to be

Paid on SGI

Portfolio as

of June 1,

2018

Economic

Loss

Development/

(Benefit)

Losses

(Paid)/

Recovered

Net Expected

Loss to be

Paid (Recovered)
as of
June 30, 2018

 
Public finance $ 1,050 $ 1 $ 53 $ (22 ) $ 1,082
U.S. RMBS 219 130 (28 ) 5 326
Other structured finance 29     (6 ) 1   24
Total $ 1,298   $ 131   $ 19   $ (16 ) $ 1,432

________________________________________________

(1) Economic loss development represents the change in net expected loss
to be paid attributable to the effects of changes in assumptions based
on observed market trends, changes in discount rates, accretion of
discount and the economic effects of loss mitigation efforts. Economic
loss development is the principal measure that the Company uses to
evaluate the loss experience in its insured portfolio. Expected loss to
be paid includes all transactions insured by the Company, whether
written in insurance or credit derivative form, regardless of the
accounting model prescribed under accounting principles generally
accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).

New Business Production

Financial guaranty GWP includes amounts collected upfront on new
business written, the present value of future premiums on new business
written (discounted at risk free rates), as well as the effects of
changes in the estimated lives of transactions in the inforce book of
business. Non-financial guaranty GWP is recorded as premiums are
received. Non-GAAP PVP includes upfront premiums and future installments
on new business as estimated at the time of issuance, discounted at 6%
for all contracts.

New Business Production

(in millions)

 
Quarter Ended June 30,
2018   2017
GWP   PVP(1)  

Gross Par

Written

GWP   PVP(1)  

Gross Par

Written

 
Public finance - U.S. $ 170 $ 234 $ 10,675 $ 44 $ 46 $ 4,832
Public finance - non - U.S. 55 53 3,345 26 14 181
Structured finance - U.S. 158 158 393 1 0
Structured finance - non-U.S. 10   9   158   8   10   127
Total $ 393   $ 454   $ 14,571   $ 79   $ 70   $ 5,140

________________________________________________

(1) Please see "Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" at the end
of this press release.

GWP and PVP for second quarter 2018 reached 10-year records due to the
assumption of substantially all of the insured portfolio of Syncora
Guarantee Inc. (SGI). On a GAAP basis, the SGI Transaction generated GWP
of $330 million, plus $86 million in expected future credit derivative
revenue, and included transactions with $131 million in expected losses
(discounted at a risk-free rate on a GAAP basis). On a non-GAAP basis,
PVP was $391 million, and included transactions with expected losses of
$83 million (discounted at 6% consistent with the PVP discount rate).
The components of new business production generated by the SGI
Transaction are presented below.

Assumed SGI Insured Portfolio

(in millions)

     
GWP PVP (1)

Financial

Guaranty

Financial

Guaranty

  Credit

Derivatives

  Total Gross Par

Written (1)

Public Finance—U.S. $ 123 $ 118 $ 67 $ 185 $ 7,559
Public Finance—non-U.S. 50 38 12 50 3,345
Structured Finance—U.S. 157 156 156 349
Structured Finance—non-U.S. 0   0     0   19
Total $ 330   $ 312   $ 79   $ 391   $ 11,272

____________________

(1) PVP and Gross Par Written in the table above are based on "close
date," when the transaction settles. See "Explanation of Non-GAAP
Financial Measures, PVP or Present Value of New Business Production."

Excluding the assumed business from SGI, U.S. public finance PVP was 7%
higher compared to second quarter 2017, despite a 7% decline in new U.S.
municipal bonds issued. In second quarter 2018, Assured Guaranty once
again guaranteed the majority of insured par issued.

Outside the U.S. the Company closed United Kingdom regulated utility
transactions in the secondary market. This is the eleventh consecutive
quarter that the Company generated new business outside the U.S.
Quarterly business activity in the international infrastructure sector
is influenced by typically long lead times and therefore may vary from
quarter to quarter.

In addition, the Company closed insurance and reinsurance aircraft
residual value insurance policies, comprising substantially all of the
non-U.S. structured finance new business in second quarter 2018 and
second quarter 2017. Structured finance transactions tend to have long
lead times and may vary from period to period.

Other Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Non-GAAP operating income was $74 million in second quarter 2018,
compared with $141 million in second quarter 2017. Non-GAAP operating
income in second quarter 2018 was lower primarily due to lower net
earned premiums and commutation losses in second quarter 2018, and a
higher effective tax rate in second quarter 2018, offset in part by
lower loss expense.

Common Share Repurchases

Summary of Share Repurchases

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
  Amount  

Number of

Shares

 

Average Price

Per Share

 
2018 (January 1 - March 31) $ 98 2.79 $ 35.20
2018 (April 1 - June 30) 152 4.16 36.48
2018 (July 1 - August 1) 50 1.36 36.84
Total 2018 $ 300 8.31 $ 36.11
   

From 2013 through August 1, 2018, the Company repurchased a total of
89.6 million common shares at an average price of $28.08, representing
approximately 46% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of
the repurchase program in 2013. On August 1, 2018, the Board of
Directors approved an incremental $250 million share repurchase
authorization. As of August 1, after combining the remaining
authorization and the new authorization, the Company was authorized to
purchase $298 million of its common shares. These repurchases can be
made from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated
transactions.

As in the past, the Company's execution of its capital management
strategy is contingent upon its available free cash and the capital
position of the parent company, market conditions, the maintenance of
its strong financial strength ratings and other factors. The repurchase
program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board of
Directors at any time. It does not have an expiration date.

Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets (unaudited)

(in millions)

 
As of
June 30, 2018   December 31, 2017
Assets
Investment portfolio:
Fixed maturity securities, available-for-sale, at fair value $ 10,225 $ 10,674
Short-term investments, at fair value 911 627
Other invested assets 102   94
Total investment portfolio 11,238 11,395
Cash 185 144
Premiums receivable, net of commissions payable 932 915
Ceded unearned premium reserve 66 119
Deferred acquisition costs 102 101
Salvage and subrogation recoverable 425 572
FG VIE assets, at fair value 627 700
Other assets 557   487
Total assets $ 14,132   $ 14,433
Liabilities and shareholders' equity
Liabilities
Unearned premium reserve $ 3,635 $ 3,475
Loss and LAE reserve 1,327 1,444
Long-term debt 1,264 1,292
Credit derivative liabilities 258 271
FG VIE liabilities with recourse, at fair value 571 627
FG VIE liabilities without recourse, at fair value 108 130
Other liabilities 335   355
Total liabilities 7,498 7,594
Shareholders' equity
Common stock 1 1
Additional paid-in capital 321 573
Retained earnings 6,159 5,892
Accumulated other comprehensive income 152 372
Deferred equity compensation 1   1
Total shareholders' equity 6,634   6,839
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity $ 14,132   $ 14,433
 

Explanation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

To reflect the key financial measures that management analyzes in
evaluating the Company's operations and progress towards long-term
goals, the Company discloses both financial measures determined in
accordance with GAAP and financial measures not determined in accordance
with GAAP (non-GAAP financial measures).

Financial measures identified as non-GAAP should not be considered
substitutes for GAAP financial measures. The primary limitation of
non-GAAP financial measures is the potential lack of comparability to
financial measures of other companies, whose definitions of non-GAAP
financial measures may differ from those of the Company.

By disclosing non-GAAP financial measures, the Company gives investors,
analysts and financial news reporters access to information that
management and the Board of Directors review internally. The Company
believes its presentation of non-GAAP financial measures, along with the
effect of FG VIE consolidation, provides information that is necessary
for analysts to calculate their estimates of Assured Guaranty's
financial results in their research reports on Assured Guaranty and for
investors, analysts and the financial news media to evaluate Assured
Guaranty's financial results.

GAAP requires the Company to consolidate certain VIEs that have issued
debt obligations insured by the Company. However, the Company does not
own such VIEs and its exposure is limited to its obligation under its
financial guaranty insurance contract. Management and the Board of
Directors use non-GAAP financial measures adjusted to remove FG VIE
consolidation (which the Company refers to as its core financial
measures), as well as GAAP financial measures and other factors, to
evaluate the Company's results of operations, financial condition and
progress towards long-term goals. The Company uses these core financial
measures in its decision making process and in its calculation of
certain components of management compensation. Wherever possible, the
Company has separately disclosed the effect of FG VIE consolidation.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters use non-GAAP
operating shareholders' equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE
consolidation, as the principal financial measure for valuing AGL's
current share price or projected share price and also as the basis of
their decision to recommend, buy or sell AGL's common shares. Many of
the Company's fixed income investors also use this measure to evaluate
the Company's capital adequacy.

Many investors, analysts and financial news reporters also use non-GAAP
adjusted book value, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE
consolidation, to evaluate AGL's share price and as the basis of their
decision to recommend, buy or sell the AGL common shares. Non-GAAP
operating income adjusted for the effect of FG VIE consolidation enables
investors and analysts to evaluate the Company's financial results in
comparison with the consensus analyst estimates distributed publicly by
financial databases.

The core financial measures that the Company uses to help determine
compensation are: (1) non-GAAP operating income, adjusted to remove the
effect of FG VIE consolidation, (2) non-GAAP operating shareholders'
equity, adjusted to remove the effect of FG VIE consolidation, (3)
growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share, adjusted to remove the
effect of FG VIE consolidation, and (4) PVP.

The following paragraphs and tables define each non-GAAP financial
measure disclosed by the Company and describe why it is useful. A
reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measure and the most directly
comparable GAAP financial measure is presented below.

Non-GAAP Operating Income

Management believes that non-GAAP operating income is a useful measure
because it clarifies the understanding of the underwriting results and
financial condition of the Company and presents the results of
operations of the Company excluding the fair value adjustments on credit
derivatives and CCS that are not expected to result in economic gain or
loss, as well as other adjustments described below. Management adjusts
non-GAAP operating income further by removing FG VIE consolidation to
arrive at its core operating income measure. Non-GAAP operating income
is defined as net income (loss) attributable to AGL, as reported under
GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of realized gains (losses) on the Company's investments,
except for gains and losses on securities classified as trading. The
timing of realized gains and losses, which depends largely on market
credit cycles, can vary considerably across periods. The timing of sales
is largely subject to the Company's discretion and influenced by market
opportunities, as well as the Company's tax and capital profile.

2) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains
(losses) on credit derivatives that are recognized in net income, which
is the amount of unrealized fair value gains (losses) in excess of the
present value of the expected estimated economic credit losses, and
non-economic payments. Such fair value adjustments are heavily affected
by, and in part fluctuate with, changes in market interest rates, the
Company's credit spreads, and other market factors and are not expected
to result in an economic gain or loss.

3) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company's CCS that
are recognized in net income. Such amounts are affected by changes in
market interest rates, the Company's credit spreads, price indications
on the Company's publicly traded debt, and other market factors and are
not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

4) Elimination of foreign exchange gains (losses) on remeasurement of
net premium receivables and loss and LAE reserves that are recognized in
net income. Long-dated receivables and loss and LAE reserves represent
the present value of future contractual or expected cash flows.
Therefore, the current period's foreign exchange remeasurement gains
(losses) are not necessarily indicative of the total foreign exchange
gains (losses) that the Company will ultimately recognize.

5) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments,
which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the
jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Summary Reconciliation of
GAAP Net Income to Non-GAAP Operating Income (1)

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
Quarter Ended June 30,
2018   2017
Total  

Per Diluted

Share

Total  

Per Diluted

Share

 
Net income (loss) $ 75 $ 0.67 $ 153 $ 1.24
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Realized gains (losses) on investments (2 ) (0.01 ) 15 0.13

Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value

gains (losses) on credit derivatives

44 0.39 (20 ) (0.17 )

Fair value gains (losses) on committed capital

securities (CCS) (2)

(1 ) (0.01 ) 2 0.01

Foreign exchange gains (losses) on

remeasurement of premiums receivable and

loss and LAE reserves (2)

(34 ) (0.30 ) 21   0.17  
Total pre-tax adjustments 7 0.07 18 0.14
Less tax effect on pre-tax adjustments (6 ) (0.06 ) (6 ) (0.06 )
Non-GAAP operating income $ 74   $ 0.66   $ 141   $ 1.16  
 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

(net of tax provision (benefit) of $(1) and $4)

included in non-GAAP operating income

$ (4 ) $ (0.03 ) $ 5 $ 0.05

________________________________________________

(1) The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should
not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures
determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.

(2) Included in other income (loss) in the condensed consolidated
statements of operations.

Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments and
Effect of FG VIE Consolidation

(in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended   Quarter Ended
June 30, 2018 June 30, 2017

Non-GAAP

Operating

Income

Adjustments

(1)

 

Effect of FG

VIE

Consolidation

(2)

Non-GAAP

Operating

Income

Adjustments

(1)

 

Effect of FG

VIE

Consolidation

(2)

Adjustments to revenues:
Net earned premiums $ $ (3 ) $ $ (4 )
Net investment income (1 ) (1 )
Net realized investment gains (losses) (2 ) 15
Net change in fair value of credit derivatives 43 (12 )
Fair value gains (losses) on FG VIEs 2 12
Other income (loss) (35 ) 0   23   0  
Total revenue adjustments 6 (2 ) 26 7
Adjustments to expenses:
Loss expense (1 ) 3   8   (2 )
Total expense adjustments (1 ) 3   8   (2 )
Pre-tax adjustments 7 (5 ) 18 9
Tax effect of adjustments 6   (1 ) 6   4  
After-tax adjustments $ 1   $ (4 ) $ 12   $ 5  

________________________________________________

(1) The "Non-GAAP Operating Income Adjustments" column represents the
amounts recorded in the condensed consolidated statements of operations
that the Company removes to arrive at non-GAAP operating income.

(2) The "Effect of FG VIE Consolidation" column represents the amounts
included in the condensed consolidated statements of operations and
non-GAAP operating income that the Company removes to arrive at the core
financial measures that management uses in certain of its compensation
calculations and its decision making process.

Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders' Equity and Non-GAAP Adjusted Book
Value

Management believes that non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity is a
useful measure because it presents the equity of the Company excluding
the fair value adjustments on investments, credit derivatives and CCS,
that are not expected to result in economic gain or loss, along with
other adjustments described below. Management adjusts non-GAAP operating
shareholders' equity further by removing FG VIE consolidation to arrive
at its core operating shareholders' equity and core adjusted book value.

Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity is the basis of the calculation
of non-GAAP adjusted book value (see below). Non-GAAP operating
shareholders' equity is defined as shareholders' equity attributable to
AGL, as reported under GAAP, adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of non-credit-impairment unrealized fair value gains
(losses) on credit derivatives, which is the amount of unrealized fair
value gains (losses) in excess of the present value of the expected
estimated economic credit losses, and non-economic payments. Such fair
value adjustments are heavily affected by, and in part fluctuate with,
changes in market interest rates, credit spreads and other market
factors and are not expected to result in an economic gain or loss.

2) Elimination of fair value gains (losses) on the Company's CCS. Such
amounts are affected by changes in market interest rates, the Company's
credit spreads, price indications on the Company's publicly traded debt,
and other market factors and are not expected to result in an economic
gain or loss.

3) Elimination of unrealized gains (losses) on the Company's investments
that are recorded as a component of accumulated other comprehensive
income (AOCI) (excluding foreign exchange remeasurement). The AOCI
component of the fair value adjustment on the investment portfolio is
not deemed economic because the Company generally holds these
investments to maturity and therefore should not recognize an economic
gain or loss.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments,
which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the
jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

Management uses non-GAAP adjusted book value, adjusted for FG VIE
consolidation, to measure the intrinsic value of the Company, excluding
franchise value. Growth in non-GAAP adjusted book value per share,
adjusted for FG VIE consolidation (core adjusted book value), is one of
the key financial measures used in determining the amount of certain
long-term compensation elements to management and employees and used by
rating agencies and investors. Management believes that non-GAAP
adjusted book value is a useful measure because it enables an evaluation
of the Company's in-force premiums and revenues net of expected losses.
Non-GAAP adjusted book value is non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity,
as defined above, further adjusted for the following:

1) Elimination of deferred acquisition costs, net. These amounts
represent net deferred expenses that have already been paid or accrued
and will be expensed in future accounting periods.

2) Addition of the net present value of estimated net future revenue on
non-financial guaranty contracts. See below.

3) Addition of the deferred premium revenue on financial guaranty
contracts in excess of expected loss to be expensed, net of reinsurance.
This amount represents the expected future net earned premiums, net of
expected losses to be expensed, which are not reflected in GAAP equity.

4) Elimination of the tax effects related to the above adjustments,
which are determined by applying the statutory tax rate in each of the
jurisdictions that generate these adjustments.

The unearned premiums and revenues included in non-GAAP adjusted book
value will be earned in future periods, but actual earnings may differ
materially from the estimated amounts used in determining current
non-GAAP adjusted book value due to changes in foreign exchange rates,
prepayment speeds, terminations, credit defaults and other factors.

Reconciliation of GAAP Shareholders' Equity to
Non-GAAP Operating Shareholders' Equity (1) and Non-GAAP Adjusted
Book Value (1)

(in millions, except per share amounts)

 
As of
June 30, 2018   December 31, 2017
Total   Per Share Total   Per Share
 
Shareholders' equity $ 6,634 $ 60.52 $ 6,839 $ 58.95
Less pre-tax adjustments:
Non-credit impairment unrealized fair value gains
(losses) on credit derivatives (72 ) (0.65 ) (146 ) (1.26 )
Fair value gains (losses) on CCS 58 0.53 60 0.52
Unrealized gain (loss) on investment portfolio
excluding foreign exchange effect 290 2.64 487 4.20
Less taxes (65 ) (0.60 ) (83 ) (0.71 )
Non-GAAP operating shareholders' equity 6,423 58.60 6,521 56.20
Pre-tax adjustments:
Less: Deferred acquisition costs 102 0.93 101 0.87
Plus: Net present value of estimated net future
revenue 217 1.98 146 1.26
Plus: Net unearned premium reserve on financial
guaranty contracts in excess of expected loss to be
expensed 3,083 28.13 2,966 25.56
Plus taxes (542 ) (4.95 ) (512 ) (4.41 )
Non-GAAP adjusted book value $ 9,079   $ 82.83   $ 9,020   $ 77.74  
 

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP operating shareholders'

equity (net of tax provision of $2 and $2)

$ 7 $ 0.07 $ 5 $ 0.03

Gain (loss) related to FG VIE consolidation

included in non-GAAP adjusted book value (net

of tax benefit of $3 and $3)

$ (12 ) $ (0.11 ) $ (14 ) $ (0.12 )
 
Shares outstanding at the end of the period 109.6 116.0

________________________________________________

(1) The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should
not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures
determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.

Net Present Value of Estimated Net Future Revenue

Management believes that this amount is a useful measure because it
enables an evaluation of the value of future estimated revenue for
non-financial guaranty insurance contracts. There is no corresponding
GAAP financial measure. This amount represents the present value of
estimated future revenue from the Company's non-financial guaranty
insurance contracts, net of reinsurance, ceding commissions and premium
taxes, for contracts without expected economic losses, and is discounted
at 6%. Estimated net future revenue may change from period to period due
to changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds, terminations,
credit defaults or other factors that affect par outstanding or the
ultimate maturity of an obligation.

PVP or Present Value of New Business Production

Management believes that PVP is a useful measure because it enables the
evaluation of the value of new business production for the Company by
taking into account the value of estimated future installment premiums
on all new contracts underwritten in a reporting period as well as
premium supplements and additional installment premium on existing
contracts as to which the issuer has the right to call the insured
obligation but has not exercised such right, whether in insurance or
credit derivative contract form, which management believes GAAP gross
written premiums and the net credit derivative premiums received and
receivable portion of net realized gains and other settlements on credit
derivatives (Credit Derivative Realized Gains (Losses)) do not
adequately measure. PVP in respect of contracts written in a specified
period is defined as gross upfront and installment premiums received and
the present value of gross estimated future installment premiums,
discounted, in each case, at 6%. Under GAAP, financial guaranty
installment premiums are discounted at a risk free rate. Additionally,
under GAAP, management records future installment premiums on financial
guaranty insurance contracts covering non-homogeneous pools of assets
based on the contractual term of the transaction, whereas for PVP
purposes, management records an estimate of the future installment
premiums the Company expects to receive, which may be based upon a
shorter period of time than the contractual term of the transaction.
Actual future earned or written premiums and Credit Derivative Realized
Gains (Losses) may differ from PVP due to factors including, but not
limited to, changes in foreign exchange rates, prepayment speeds,
terminations, credit defaults, or other factors that affect par
outstanding or the ultimate maturity of an obligation.

Reconciliation of GWP to PVP (1)

(in millions)

 
  Quarter Ended
June 30, 2018
Public Finance   Structured Finance  
U.S.   Non - U.S. U.S.   Non - U.S. Total
GWP $ 170 $ 55 $ 158 $ 10 $ 393
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP

adjustments(2)

20   32   5   1   58
Upfront GWP 150 23 153 9 335
Plus: Installment premium PVP(3) 84   30   5   0   119
PVP $ 234   $ 53   $ 158   $ 9   $ 454
 
  Quarter Ended
June 30, 2017
Public Finance   Structured Finance  
U.S.   Non - U.S. U.S.   Non - U.S. Total
GWP $ 44 $ 26 $ 1 $ 8 $ 79
Less: Installment GWP and other GAAP

adjustments(2)

(2 ) 26   1   0   25
Upfront GWP 46 8 54
Plus: Installment premium PVP 0   14   0   2   16
PVP $ 46   $ 14   $ 0   $ 10   $ 70

________________________________________________

(1) The non-GAAP financial measures presented in the table above should
not be considered a substitute for financial results and measures
determined or calculated in accordance with GAAP.

(2) Includes present value of new business on installment policies
discounted at the prescribed GAAP discount rates, GWP adjustments on
existing installment policies due to changes in assumptions, any
cancellations of assumed reinsurance contracts, and other GAAP
adjustments.

(3) Includes PVP of credit derivatives assumed in the SGI Transaction in
second quarter 2018.

Conference Call and Webcast Information

The Company will host a conference call for investors at 8:00 a.m.
Eastern Time (9:00 a.m. Atlantic Time) on Thursday, August 2, 2018. The
conference call will be available via live and archived webcast in the
Investor Information section of the Company's website at AssuredGuaranty.com
or by dialing 1-877-281-1545 (in the U.S.) or 1-412-902-6609
(International). A replay of the call will be made available through
November 1, 2018. To listen to the replay, dial 1-877-344-7529 (in the
U.S.) or 1-412-317-0088 (International), passcode 10122662. The replay
will be available one hour after the conference call ends.

Please refer to Assured Guaranty's June 30, 2018 Financial Supplement,
which is posted on the Company's website at assuredguaranty.com/investor-information/by-company/assured-guaranty-ltd,
for more information on the Company's financial guaranty portfolio,
investment portfolio and other items. The Company is also posting on the
same page of its website:

  • "Public Finance Transactions in 2Q 2018," which lists the U.S. public
    finance new issues insured by the Company in second quarter 2018, and
  • "Structured Finance Transactions at June 30, 2018," which lists the
    Company's structured finance exposure as of that date.

In addition, the Company is posting at assuredguaranty.com/presentations
the "June 30, 2018 Equity Investor Presentation." Furthermore, the
Company's separate-company subsidiary financial supplements and its
Fixed Income Presentation for the current quarter will be posted on the
Company's website when available. Those documents will be furnished to
the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Current Report on Form 8-K.

Assured Guaranty Ltd. is a publicly traded (NYSE:AGO) Bermuda-based
holding company. Its operating subsidiaries provide credit enhancement
products to the U.S. and international public finance, infrastructure
and structured finance markets. More information on Assured Guaranty
Ltd. and its subsidiaries can be found at AssuredGuaranty.com.

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Any forward-looking statements made in this press release reflect the
Company's current views with respect to future events and financial
performance and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements
involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ
materially from those set forth in these statements. For example,
Assured Guaranty's calculations of non-GAAP adjusted book value, PVP,
net present value of estimated future installment premiums in force and
total estimated net future premium earnings and statements regarding its
capital position and demand for its insurance and other forward-looking
statements could be affected by reduction in the amount of available
insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty's
insurance; rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change
in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change
in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its subsidiaries,
and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued,
and/or of transactions that AGL's subsidiaries have insured;
developments in the world's financial and capital markets that adversely
affect obligors' payment rates or Assured Guaranty's loss experience;
the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will
result in credit losses or impairments on obligations of state,
territorial and local governments and their related authorities and
public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; the
failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed
in its expected loss estimates; increased competition, including from
new entrants into the financial guaranty industry; rating agency action
on obligors, including sovereign debtors, resulting in a reduction in
the value of securities in Assured Guaranty's investment portfolio and
in collateral posted by and to Assured Guaranty; the inability of
Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable
terms; changes in the world's credit markets, segments thereof, interest
rates or general economic conditions; the impact of market volatility on
the mark-to-market of Assured Guaranty's contracts written in credit
default swap form; changes in applicable accounting policies or
practices; changes in applicable laws or regulations, including
insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions; the
impact of changes in the world's economy and credit and currency markets
and in applicable laws or regulations relating to the decision of the
United Kingdom to exit the European Union; the possibility that
acquisitions or alternative investments made by Assured Guaranty do not
result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to
unanticipated consequences; deterioration in the financial condition of
Assured Guaranty's reinsurers, the amount and timing of reinsurance
recoverables actually received and the risk that reinsurers may dispute
amounts owed to Assured Guaranty under its reinsurance agreements;
difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty's business strategy;
loss of key personnel; the effects of mergers, acquisitions and
divestitures; natural or man-made catastrophes; other risk factors
identified in AGL's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission; other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified
at this time; and management's response to these factors. Readers are
cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking
statements. These forward-looking statements are made as of August 1,
2018, and Assured Guaranty undertakes no obligation to update publicly
or review any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new
information, future developments or otherwise, except as required by law.

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