Market Overview

TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index: 2018 Mid-Year Review

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Retail investors were net buyers in June and for the first half of
the year

In June 2018, the Investor Movement Index® rose to 5.45 as
retail investors gradually increased their equity exposure throughout
the first six months of 2018, TD Ameritrade, Inc.1 announced
today. The Investor
Movement Index
, or the IMXSM, is a proprietary,
behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade that aggregates Main
Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors
actually were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here:
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180709005585/en/

TD Ameritrade June 2018 Investor Movement Index (Graphic: TD Ameritrade).

TD Ameritrade June 2018 Investor Movement Index (Graphic: TD Ameritrade).

June IMX

The June 2018 Investor Movement Index for the four weeks ended June 29,
2018 reveals:

  • Reading: 5.45 (compared to 5.06 in May)
  • Trend direction: Positive
  • Trend length: 2 month
  • Score relative to historic ranges: Moderately Low

U.S. markets ended June on a positive note with the Nasdaq Composite
increasing a percent and the Russell 2000 reaching all-time highs. TD
Ameritrade clients appeared to use volatility during the month as a
reason to increase their overall equity exposure. As a result,
investors' net buying activity prompted the June IMX reading to jump
more than seven percent from the prior month.

TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers during the June IMX period. Top
buys included:

  • AT&T Inc. (T), after receiving approval for its acquisition of Time
    Warner Inc.
  • iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) and Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), following reports
    of proposed rules that would limit Chinese investments in certain U.S.
    tech firms.
  • Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), after its stock price reached an all-time-high.
  • salesforce.com, inc. (CRM), following an analyst upgrade and the
    announcement of new innovations to deliver a more personalized
    customer experience.

Despite being net buyers, TD Ameritrade clients found equities to sell
during the period, including:

  • Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM),
    which both traded higher on the back of a three-and-a-half year high
    in crude oil prices.
  • General Motors Company (GM), following the announcement that SoftBank
    Vision Fund committed to invest over $2 billion into GM's autonomous
    driving program.
  • Facebook, Inc. (FB), for the fifth month in a row after the stock
    reached an all-time high during the period.
  • Chip-maker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), after reaching a
    52-week high early in the period.

As July progresses, retail investors will likely remain focused on trade
tensions between the U.S. and key global trading partners. The large
concern appears to be over how trade will impact economic growth.
Earnings season will also begin with big banks reporting their earnings
in mid-July, with investors most likely looking at company performance
and CEO statements.

2018 Mid-Year Review

Despite optimism surrounding the financial sector at the start of 2018,
the first half of the year proved to be more challenging than expected.
A flattening yield curve, slower global growth, and tensions between the
U.S. and key trading partners created pressures that injected more
volatility into the markets. In early 2018, the equity market saw its
first market correction in over two years.

After ending 2017 at all-time highs, the IMX recorded its largest
monthly decrease ever in February – more than 20 percent – after the
markets entered correction territory. The market selloff led TD
Ameritrade to record its highest trading day of the year on February 5.
On that date, the S&P 500 was down 4.1 percent and the Nasdaq was down
3.8 percent.

"TD Ameritrade clients reduced their overall exposure to equity markets
the first four months of the year, but started to dial-up exposure once
again in May and June," said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD
Ameritrade. "This gives us a sense that although the market has been
back-and-forth, clients may be feeling better heading into the end of
the year and may continue to increase exposure in a very measured
fashion."

TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers in the first half of 2018,
increasing their equity positions during that period. The top five
popular buys for the first half of 2018 were:

  • Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
  • AT&T Inc. (T)
  • Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
  • Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
  • General Electric Company (GE)

The top five popular sells for the first half of 2018 were:

  • Facebook, Inc. (FB)
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
  • ConocoPhillips (COP)
  • Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

The five most widely held stocks for the first half of 2018 were:

  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • General Electric Company (GE)
  • AT&T Inc. (T)
  • Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
  • Ford Motor Company (F)

"Based on the first six months of the year, it would be hard to believe
that volatility wouldn't stay elevated as compared to 2017," said
Kinahan. "Interest rates remain a large question mark as tariff talks
have become a big factor in the markets over the last few months, the
10-year yield is still not above three percent like many anticipated,
and midterm elections are coming up this fall."

About the IMX

The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each
month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of more than 11
million funded accounts, which includes all accounts that completed a
trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this
statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual
scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.

For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including
historical IMX data going back to January 2010; to view the full report
from June 2018; or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX.
Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol
$IMX in either the thinkorswim® or TD Ameritrade Mobile
Trader platforms.

Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not
constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.

Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no guarantee of
future results or investment success.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment
decisions
. Please consult other sources of information and
consider your individual financial position and goals before making an
independent investment decision.

The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as
an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial
performance for TD Ameritrade.

For the latest TD Ameritrade news and information, follow the company on
Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.

Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation

About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation

TD Ameritrade provides investing
services
and education
to more than 11 million client accounts totaling approximately $1.2
trillion in assets, and custodial
services
to more than 6,000 registered investment advisors. We are a
leader in U.S. retail trading, executing an average of more than 940,000
trades per day for our clients, nearly a quarter of which come from
mobile devices. We have a proud history
of innovation
, dating back to our start in 1975, and today our team
of 10,000-strong is committed to carrying it forward. Together, we are
leveraging the latest in cutting edge technologies and one-on-one client
care to transform lives, and investing, for the better. Learn more by
visiting TD Ameritrade's newsroom
at www.amtd.com,
or read our stories at Fresh
Accounts
.

1TD Ameritrade, Inc. is a broker-dealer subsidiary of TD
Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NASDAQ:AMTD). Brokerage services
provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA (www.FINRA.org)/SIPC
(www.SIPC.org).

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