Market Overview

DHL Global Trade Barometer Continues to Rise

  • Despite increasing trade tensions, global trade growth expected to
    accelerate slightly in the third quarter of 2018
  • Growth dynamics continue to primarily come from air trade
  • Strong development in South Korea; UK trade growth to further lose

The DHL Global Trade Barometer (GTB) predicts that global trade growth
will continue to accelerate over the next three months. Compared to the
previous release in March, the overall GTB index rose by one point, now
standing at 67 points. According to the GTB methodology, an index value
above 50 signals a positive growth forecast. The increase is notable
because the data on which the DHL Global Trade Barometer is based show
no impact of the current increase in international trade disputes. The
rise in the overall index was primarily driven by a slight increase for
containerized ocean freight, which has now reached an index value of 64
points (March: 63). The index for global air trade remained unchanged at
70 points.

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Global trade growth is expected to accelerate slightly in the third quarter of 2018. (Photo: Busines ...

Global trade growth is expected to accelerate slightly in the third quarter of 2018. (Photo: Business Wire)

Geography-wise, the global improvement was mainly driven by more
optimistic outlooks for China and South Korea. The trade forecast for
the US has also improved slightly. The positive impact by these three
countries was partially offset by reduced outlooks for India, Japan and
the UK. Despite a strong decline by 5 points in the outlook for India,
the country still has the highest forecast for overall trade growth with
79 points. In contrast, the UK has the least favorable outlook with now
57 index points, down 4 points compared to March. Germany remains
somewhat in between: a significant increase in air trade by 3 points is
offset by a 1 point decline ocean trade. This amounts to an unchanged
overall forecast for Germany – which is still markedly positive with an
index value of 64.

With respect to individual industries, the outlook for Machinery Parts
and Components improved most, followed by Consumer Goods and High Tech.
Moreover, all industries included in the DHL Global Trade Barometer
continue to have a positive trade outlook, except Basic Raw Materials,
for which the GTB predicts a significant decline in global trade.

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is a new and
unique early indicator for the current state and future development of
global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are
evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has
been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world's leading logistics
company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a
year. The next release date is September 26, 2018.

To learn more about the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit

You can find the press release for download as well as further
information on

DHLThe logistics company for the

DHL is the leading global brand in the logistics industry. Our
DHL family of divisions offer an unrivalled portfolio of logistics
services ranging from national and international parcel delivery,
e-commerce shipping and fulfillment solutions, international express,
road, air and ocean transport to industrial supply chain management.
With about 360,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories
worldwide, DHL connects people and businesses securely and reliably,
enabling global trade flows. With specialized solutions for growth
markets and industries including technology, life sciences and
healthcare, energy, automotive and retail, a proven commitment to
corporate responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing
markets, DHL is decisively positioned as "The logistics company for the

DHL is part of Deutsche Post DHL Group. The Group generated revenues of
more than 60 billion euros in 2017.

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