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ALG finds Automakers Poised to Reach $45 Billion in Revenue in April

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ALG finds Automakers Poised to Reach $45 Billion in Revenue in April

Average transaction prices likely to rise 2.7 percent

PR Newswire

SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 1, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $45 billion for the month of April, down 3.8  percent from a year ago with currently 24 selling days compared to 26 in April 2017.

ALG A TRUECar Company (PRNewsfoto/ALG)

ALG expects a loss of $1.7 billion in revenue for automakers versus 2017. Additionally, incentive spending is projected to increase 8.5 percent year over year and decrease 1.6 percent month over month.

"Cooling incentives on a month over month basis and the continued rise in Average Transaction Prices are putting the auto industry on track for another year of solid performance metrics," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "Automakers are becoming increasingly dependent on light trucks, as evidenced by Ford's recent announcement to pull all but two passenger cars from their lineup, which bolsters revenue and ATPs across the industry. Additionally, the impact of higher interest rates and economic volatility have not negatively impacted robust ATPs."

ALG estimates ATP for a new light vehicle was $33,515 in April, up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Average incentive spending per unit grew by $293 to $3,736. The ratio of incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 11.1 percent, up from 10.5 percent from a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

Apr. 2018 Forecast

Apr. 2017

Mar. 2018

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

$52,576

$52,103

$52,147

0.9%

0.8%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

$61,650

$61,679

$61,582

0.0%

0.1%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

$34,281

$32,931

$33,957

4.1%

1.0%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

$37,032

$35,751

$37,149

3.6%

-0.3%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

$36,254

$36,571

$34,976

-0.9%

3.7%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

$27,745

$27,182

$27,857

2.1%

-0.4%

Hyundai

$22,442

$22,545

$22,571

-0.5%

-0.6%

Kia

$22,931

$22,699

$22,999

1.0%

-0.3%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

$27,256

$27,359

$27,634

-0.4%

-1.4%

Subaru

$27,814

$27,764

$27,921

0.2%

-0.4%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

$32,107

$31,064

$32,119

3.4%

0.0%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

$36,570

$34,187

$35,888

7.0%

1.9%

Industry

$33,515

$32,638

$33,207

2.7%

0.9%

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

Apr. 2018 Forecast

Apr. 2017

Mar. 2018

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

$5,484

$4,424

$5,595

23.9%

-2.0%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

$4,691

$4,557

$4,775

2.9%

-1.8%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

$4,685

$4,359

$4,579

7.5%

2.3%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

$4,183

$4,114

$4,167

1.7%

0.4%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

$5,489

$4,238

$5,667

29.5%

-3.1%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

$1,652

$1,809

$1,556

-8.7%

6.1%

Hyundai

$2,961

$3,135

$2,875

-5.5%

3.0%

Kia

$3,894

$3,247

$3,858

19.9%

0.9%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

$3,788

$3,903

$3,772

-2.9%

0.4%

Subaru

$1,172

$957

$1,199

22.4%

-2.3%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

$2,291

$2,346

$2,347

-2.4%

-2.4%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

$3,537

$4,008

$3,618

-11.7%

-2.2%

Industry

$3,736

$3,443

$3,795

8.5%

-1.6%

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

Apr. 2018 Forecast

Apr. 2017

Mar. 2018

YOY

MOM

BMW (BMW, Mini)

10.4%

8.5%

10.7%

22.8%

-2.8%

Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)

7.6%

7.4%

7.8%

3.0%

-1.9%

FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)

13.7%

13.2%

13.5%

3.2%

1.4%

Ford (Ford, Lincoln)

11.3%

11.5%

11.2%

-1.8%

0.7%

GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)

15.1%

11.6%

16.2%

30.7%

-6.5%

Honda (Acura, Honda)

6.0%

6.7%

5.6%

-10.5%

6.6%

Hyundai

13.2%

13.9%

12.7%

-5.1%

3.6%

Kia

17.0%

14.3%

16.8%

18.7%

1.2%

Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)

13.9%

14.3%

13.7%

-2.6%

1.8%

Subaru

4.2%

3.4%

4.3%

22.2%

-1.9%

Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)

7.1%

7.6%

7.3%

-5.5%

-2.3%

Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)

9.7%

11.7%

10.1%

-17.5%

-4.1%

Industry

11.1%

10.5%

11.4%

5.7%

-2.5%










(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Contact
pressinquiries@truecar.com  
Veronica Cardenas 
424-258-8427
VCardenas@truecar.com

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SOURCE ALG

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