Market Overview

DHL Global Trade Barometer Increases

  • Solid positive growth for global trade expected within three months
  • Prospects for Korean and US trade brightening, Germany moderating
  • Air trade outlook drops slightly, ocean trade gaining momentum

The positive outlook for world trade has continued to improve. The DHL
Global Trade Barometer increased to 66 points in March from 64 points in
January when the newly created index was initially published. With an
index value clearly above 50, the DHL Global Trade Barometer continues
to signal solid positive growth for global trade within the next three
months. Furthermore, the increase indicates that growth is gaining

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DHL's Global Trade Barometer forecasts positive solid growth for the next three months. (Graphic: Bu ...

DHL's Global Trade Barometer forecasts positive solid growth for the next three months. (Graphic: Business Wire)

The overall good prospects are also reflected in the fact that the Trade
Barometer points to an increase in trade activity for each of the seven
constituent countries. Compared to the findings in January, the improved
global index is mainly driven by an increasingly positive outlook for
Korean and US trade. In contrast, the prospects for German trade eased
after the strong peak seen in 2017. India continues to show the highest
index value of all seven countries for the overall trade predictions,
while the UK, after a modest decline since January, scores the same
level as China at the lower end of the country ranking.

Developments in air and ocean trade are slightly contrasting. The global
air trade outlook drops slightly by -1 point compared to January, but
remains very positive at 70. The outlook for global air trade is pushed
downward, as particularly German and South Korean air trade growth is
expected to slow down. On the upside, air trade growth in China and the
US is expected to accelerate.

Meanwhile, the outlook for global ocean trade improved to 63 points in
March from 60 points in January. This growth is also driven by the US
and China, together with a strong increase in South Korea, offsetting a
slightly reduced growth outlook for UK and German ocean trade.

Launched in January 2018, the DHL Global Trade Barometer is a new and
unique early indicator for the current state and future development of
global trade. It is based on large amounts of logistics data that are
evaluated with the help of artificial intelligence. The indicator has
been developed in cooperation between DHL, the world's leading logistics
company, and IT service provider Accenture. It is published four times a
year. The next release date is June 27, 2018.

To learn more about the DHL Global Trade Barometer, please visit

You can find the press release for download as well as further
information on

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With about 360,000 employees in more than 220 countries and territories
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corporate responsibility and an unrivalled presence in developing
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more than 60 billion euros in 2017.

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