Market Overview

ExxonMobil Releases Energy & Carbon Summary and Outlook for Energy


today released its Energy & Carbon Summary: Positioning for a
Lower-Carbon Future
and its Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. The
reports highlight ExxonMobil's analysis of 2 degree Celsius (2oC)
scenarios and include sensitivity analyses on electric vehicle
penetration and renewables deployment. They are in response to a
2017 shareholder resolution seeking additional climate disclosures about
the impacts of technology advances and global climate change policies on
the company.

The Energy & Carbon Summary and a new special section in the
annual Outlook for Energy include consideration of the impact on
future energy demand from an analysis of multiple lower-carbon scenarios
published by the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum. The forum's
scenarios are publicly available and are used for analytical purposes,
including by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The global scenarios assessed by ExxonMobil, which include a full range
of energy technologies, contemplate limiting global greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions to have a likely chance of holding atmospheric concentrations
to the equivalent of 450 parts per million CO2 in 2100; these scenarios
are generally considered to be consistent with pathways that would limit
global average temperature rise in 2100 to 2oC above
pre-industrial levels.

The company's analysis of these 2oC scenarios examined the
mean of the annual average demand growth rates of the various model
outputs between 2010 and 2040 for multiple sources of energy. This
analysis of these 2oC scenarios indicates: total energy
demand increases about 0.5 percent per year; oil demand decreases about
0.4 percent per year; natural gas demand increases about 0.9 percent per
year; coal demand decreases about 2.4 percent per year; and renewables
demand increases about 4.5 percent per year.

All energy sources remain important across the assessed 2oC
scenarios to 2040. As a result of ongoing demand coupled with natural
hydrocarbon field decline, trillions of dollars of additional investment
in oil and gas production will be required, including to meet a 2oC
pathway. Based on the average growth rates of assessed 2oC
scenarios, natural gas demand is estimated to increase to 445 billion
cubic feet per day by 2040; oil demand is estimated to decline to 78
million barrels per day by 2040.

"Our job is to supply the energy the world needs in an environmentally
responsible way," said Darren W. Woods, chairman and chief executive of
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). "It's a dual challenge – we need to
meet society's growing need for energy while addressing the risks of
climate change. We are committed to being part of the solution by
investing in new technologies that can provide economic solutions on a
globally scalable basis. "

Many experts agree that advancements will be needed to reach and
maintain a 2oC pathway through 2100. ExxonMobil has invested
billions of dollars in research and development, including multiple
university and business partnerships around the globe, aimed at
achieving the technical breakthroughs required.

"Since 2000, our investments to develop lower-emission energy solutions
have totaled about $8 billion," Woods said. "We are deploying
technologies such as cogeneration and carbon capture and storage, while
researching next-generation solutions such as algae biofuels and
advanced carbon capture using fuel cells. Continued research will be

With growing global populations and economies, key levers to address the
risks of climate change include further energy efficiency improvements
and reducing the GHG intensity of the world's energy system. "For our
part, we continue to take action to mitigate our emissions and help
consumers lessen their GHG impact," Woods said.

ExxonMobil's Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 describes a
rapidly growing global population and rise in living standards in
developing countries that will drive a growth in worldwide energy demand
of about 25 percent from 2016 to 2040. At the same time, energy
efficiency gains and gradual reductions in the GHG intensity of the
energy system, will help to moderate energy use and reduce by nearly 45
percent the carbon intensity of the global economy, according to the

Emerging economies in countries that are not part of the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will account for
essentially all energy demand growth, led by an expanding Asia-Pacific

As prosperity rises, electrification continues as a significant global
trend. Energy demand for power generation accounts for about 50 percent
of global demand growth, with much of that coming from non-OECD

"Natural gas use is likely to increase more than any other energy
source, around 40 percent, with about half its growth for electricity
generation," said T.J. Wojnar, vice president for Corporate Strategic
Planning. "The abundance and versatility of natural gas, in addition to
its significant air quality benefits, make it a valuable energy source
to meet a wide variety of needs, while also helping the world to shift
to a less carbon-intensive source of energy."

Among the most rapidly expanding energy supplies will be electricity
from solar and wind, together growing about 400 percent.

While energy demand will grow, global carbon dioxide emissions are
likely to peak by 2040, at about 10 percent above 2016 levels, as energy
sources shift toward lower-emission fuels such as natural gas,
renewables, and nuclear.

The Outlook predicts a rise in electric vehicles as well as
efficiency improvements in conventional engines. This will likely lead
to a peak in liquid fuels use by the world's light-duty vehicle fleet by
2030. However, oil will continue to play a leading role in the world's
energy mix.

"Our in-depth analysis shows that even if every light-duty vehicle in
the world was fully electric by 2040, the demand for liquids could still
be similar to levels seen in 2013," said Wojnar. "This is because of
growing demand from commercial transportation and the chemical sector."

The Outlook for Energy is ExxonMobil's long-range forecast
developed through data-driven analysis, reflecting broad knowledge of
energy markets and the expertise of economists, engineers, and
scientists. It examines energy supply and demand trends for
approximately 100 regional/country areas, 15 demand sectors and 20
different energy types. ExxonMobil uses the forecast as a foundation for
its business strategies and to help guide multi-billion dollar
investment decisions.

Key findings from this year's Outlook:

  • In 2040, oil and natural gas continue to supply about 55 percent of
    the world's energy needs; oil continues to provide the largest share
    of the energy mix with demand rising about 20 percent driven by
    commercial transportation and chemicals.
  • Nuclear and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly
    40 percent of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.
  • The share of the world's electricity generated by coal is expected to
    fall to less than 30 percent in 2040 from approximately 40 percent in
  • Increasing electrification of light-duty vehicles is anticipated to
    grow strongly. In total, full hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and
    electric-only vehicles will be approaching 40 percent of global
    light-duty vehicle sales in 2040, compared to about 3 percent in 2016.

For more information on the Energy & Carbon Summary and Outlook
for Energy
, visit

About ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil, the largest publicly traded international energy company,
uses technology and innovation to help meet the world's growing energy
needs. ExxonMobil holds an industry-leading inventory of resources, is
one of the largest refiners and marketers of petroleum products, and its
chemical company is one of the largest in the world. For more
information, visit
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Cautionary Statement: Statements in the Outlook
for Energy
and this release relating to future events or conditions
are forward-looking statements. Actual future global or local conditions
(including economic conditions and growth, population growth, energy
demand growth and mix, energy supply sources, efficiency gains, the
impact of technology, and carbon emissions) could differ materially due
to changes in supply and demand and market conditions affecting oil,
gas, and other energy prices; changes in law or government regulation
and other political events; changes in technology; the occurrence and
duration of economic recessions; the actions of competitors; the
development of new supply sources; demographic changes; and changes in
other assumptions or factors discussed in the Outlook for Energy
and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" on the
Investors page of our website at
See also Item 1A of ExxonMobil's latest Form 10-K.

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