Market Overview

Canadian Housing Starts Trend Sees Large Gain in November

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OTTAWA, Dec. 8, 2017 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 226,270 units in November 2017, compared to 216,642 units in October 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

"The trend in housing starts reached its highest level in almost 10 years this November, reflecting a second consecutive increase in multiple starts," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "This largely reflects construction of multiple units in Toronto, where evidence of overbuilding is low due to the decreasing inventory of completed and unabsorbed multiple units and strong demand."

Monthly Highlights

St. John's
Total housing starts increased in November due to a notable increase in the multiple segment. The shift from single-detached to multiple housing starts has been driven by millennials and first-time buyers seeking lower priced alternatives in an uncertain economic environment. In fact, year-to-date housing starts are trending 12% lower than in 2016.                     

Trois-Rivières
The trend in housing starts in the Trois-Rivières CMA, although down from a year earlier, remained high in November. Overall, the renewed growth in starts observed since the beginning of the year has been mainly attributable to an increase in activity in the rental housing segment. This gain has been supported in part by demand from older households, who will in fact continue to have an impact on this market over the coming years.

Sherbrooke
The slight downward trend in housing starts that began a few months ago in the Sherbrooke CMA continued in November 2017. The slowdown in activity observed since the beginning of this year has been due to decreases in the rental apartment and condominium segments. In fact, the rental housing vacancy rate remains high and inventories of condominiums for sale are still sizable. However, starts of freehold homes stayed stable supported by strong employment among people aged 25 to 44.

Toronto
Total housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) trended higher in November 2017. Multiple-family dwelling starts trended significantly higher and contributed to the overall increase.  Given escalating house prices of single-detached homes, more homebuyers continued to shift demand towards lower priced condominium apartments and townhomes. Higher sales of pre-construction condominium units in the past two years will continue to break ground throughout this year resulting in more condominium apartment starts.

Guelph
Guelph builders started 269 homes in November, significantly higher than the 62 homes started a year ago. This increase was due to the jump in apartment starts which are above the ten-year average in response to strong demand from downsizing seniors, young households, immigrants and students. The rental market in Guelph is tight with a vacancy rate of 1.2%. The strong demand for rental apartments has translated into more apartment starts. Single-detached and townhouse starts are lower this year. Fewer low-rise new home sales this year have translated into lower starts. 

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo builders started 658 homes in November, significantly higher than the 222 homes started a year ago. For the first eleven months of 2017, single-detached starts are lower, while starts for townhouses are up 51% and for apartments, 26%. Demographics are playing a role in new home construction as there has been a shift to smaller households. One-person households, couples without children households and lone-parent households are increasing at a much faster pace than couples with children households which stimulates demand for affordable options such as townhouses and apartments.

London
Total housing starts in London CMA posted one of the highest levels ever recorded for the month of November. Strong population growth and a low supply of resale home listings have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes – resulting in a thirteen year high for single-detached starts during the month of November. In addition, stronger rental demand this year indicated by the lowest vacancy rate in London CMA since 2001, has already led to a higher number of apartment starts this year than the annual record set in 2016.

Regina
The trend in total housing starts declined in November after both single-detached and multi-family construction trended lower from the previous month. However, year to date, actual new home starts in Regina were 32% higher than in the same period of 2016. This is as a result of the strong surge in residential construction led by a 55% increase in multi-unit production. On balance, improving labour market conditions and continued population growth are supporting new home demand in Regina this year.

Vancouver
Seasonally adjusted monthly starts in the Vancouver CMA were lower in November mostly due to a pullback in apartment starts as the construction sector remains at full capacity. Fewer multi-family condo and rental projects are getting underway in the City of Vancouver, Richmond, and on the North Shore, meanwhile, Burnaby and New Westminster have observed higher multi-family starts so far in 2017, relative to the same period last year.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 252,184 units in November, up from 222,695 units in October. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 14.4 per cent in November to 235,412 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 16.9 per cent to 175,016 units in November. Single-detached urban starts increased by 7.5 per cent, to 60,396 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,772 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Additional data is available upon request. 

Housing Starts in Canada - All Areas. November 2017 (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)


Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over



Single-Detached

All Others

Total



November
2016

November
2017

%

November
2016

November
2017

%

November
2016

November
2017

%

Provinces (10,000+)










N.-L.


66

55

-17

27

57

111

93

112

20

P.E.I.   


16

29

81

11

55

400

27

84

211

N.S.   


127

113

-11

230

216

-6

357

329

-8

N.B.   


62

83

34

65

107

65

127

190

50

Atlantic


271

280

3

333

435

31

604

715

18

Qc


520

546

5

2,325

3,536

52

2,845

4,082

43

Ont.   


2,672

2,303

-14

2,466

6,202

152

5,138

8,505

66

Man.   


190

202

6

309

303

-2

499

505

1

Sask.   


188

141

-25

81

186

130

269

327

22

Alta.   


1,016

1,000

-2

1,027

1,774

73

2,043

2,774

36

Prairies


1,394

1,343

-4

1,417

2,263

60

2,811

3,606

28

B.C.   


832

1,005

21

2,826

2,813

0

3,658

3,818

4

Canada (10,000+)

5,689

5,477

-4

9,367

15,249

63

15,056

20,726

38

Metropolitan Areas










Abbotsford-Mission

15

57

280

5

112

##

20

169

##

Barrie


44

83

89

12

73

##

56

156

179

Belleville


**

34

##

**

18

##

**

52

##

Brantford


8

8

-

14

2

-86

22

10

-55

Calgary


346

390

13

399

1,114

179

745

1,504

102

Edmonton


436

400

-8

550

526

-4

986

926

-6

Greater Sudbury

12

18

50

2

6

200

14

24

71

Guelph


16

19

19

46

250

443

62

269

334

Halifax


46

51

11

195

171

-12

241

222

-8

Hamilton


91

59

-35

81

366

352

172

425

147

Kelowna


93

88

-5

51

145

184

144

233

62

Kingston


38

11

-71

7

11

57

45

22

-51

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

97

88

-9

125

570

356

222

658

196

Lethbridge


**

34

##

**

6

##

**

40

##

London


141

163

16

84

478

469

225

641

185

Moncton


29

23

-21

16

91

469

45

114

153

Montréal


209

237

13

1,188

1,921

62

1,397

2,158

54

Oshawa


43

111

158

78

188

141

121

299

147

Ottawa-Gatineau

201

242

20

267

787

195

468

1,029

120


Gatineau


24

48

100

77

33

-57

101

81

-20


Ottawa


177

194

10

190

754

297

367

948

158

Peterborough


27

16

-41

9

0

-100

36

16

-56

Québec


90

66

-27

409

975

138

499

1,041

109

Regina


68

36

-47

30

102

240

98

138

41

Saguenay


17

19

12

26

41

58

43

60

40

St. Catharines-Niagara

122

110

-10

28

132

371

150

242

61

Saint John


6

25

317

6

2

-67

12

27

125

St. John's


54

42

-22

24

52

117

78

94

21

Saskatoon


99

79

-20

25

60

140

124

139

12

Sherbrooke


28

22

-21

141

130

-8

169

152

-10

Thunder Bay


12

16

33

2

12

##

14

28

100

Toronto


1,308

886

-32

1,435

3,014

110

2,743

3,900

42

Trois-Rivières


16

13

-19

103

35

-66

119

48

-60

Vancouver


379

497

31

2,272

2,141

-6

2,651

2,638

0

Victoria


69

67

-3

199

156

-22

268

223

-17

Windsor


77

45

-42

63

96

52

140

141

1

Winnipeg


166

153

-8

291

291

-

457

444

-3

Total


4,403

4,208

-4

8,183

14,074

72

12,586

18,282

45

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.









Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.









Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC











Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)



Single-Detached

All Others

Total



October
2017

November
2017

%

October
2017

November
2017

%

October
2017

November
2017

%

Provinces (10,000+)










N.L.


517

526

2

511

612

20

1,028

1,138

11

P.E.I.   


480

284

-41

252

660

162

732

944

29

N.S.   


1,226

1,047

-15

1,180

2,420

105

2,406

3,467

44

N.B.   


813

789

-3

2,154

1,266

-41

2,967

2,055

-31

Qc  


6,191

6,440

4

43,848

38,311

-13

50,039

44,751

-11

Ont.   


21,190

24,470

15

36,626

71,271

95

57,816

95,741

66

Man.   


2,384

2,414

1

1,968

3,636

85

4,352

6,050

39

Sask.   


1,825

1,570

-14

3,372

2,232

-34

5,197

3,802

-27

Alta.   


11,960

11,078

-7

15,416

21,100

37

27,376

32,178

18

B.C.   


9,604

11,778

23

44,341

33,508

-24

53,945

45,286

-16

Canada (10,000+)

56,190

60,396

7

149,668

175,016

17

205,858

235,412

14

Canada (All Areas)

69,161

73,247

6

153,536

178,937

17

222,695

252,184

13

Metropolitan Areas











Abbotsford-Mission

260

688

165

1,140

1,344

18

1,400

2,032

45

Barrie


836

1,048

25

600

876

46

1,436

1,924

34

Belleville


391

489

25

276

216

-22

667

705

6

Brantford


151

142

-6

0

24

##

151

166

10

Calgary


4,465

4,178

-6

6,816

13,368

96

11,281

17,546

56

Edmonton


4,396

4,351

-1

4,764

6,312

32

9,160

10,663

16

Greater Sudbury

102

160

57

48

72

50

150

232

55

Guelph


254

263

4

288

3,000

##

542

3,263

##

Halifax


850

628

-26

840

2,052

144

1,690

2,680

59

Hamilton


708

752

6

1,080

4,392

307

1,788

5,144

188

Kelowna


748

839

12

1,212

1,740

44

1,960

2,579

32

Kingston


221

97

-56

168

132

-21

389

229

-41

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

865

968

12

1,236

6,840

453

2,101

7,808

272

Lethbridge


452

462

2

948

72

-92

1,400

534

-62

London


1,632

1,858

14

504

5,736

##

2,136

7,594

256

Moncton


340

190

-44

1,680

1,092

-35

2,020

1,282

-37

Montréal


2,653

2,741

3

38,178

23,021

-40

40,831

25,762

-37

Oshawa


491

1,485

202

3,096

2,256

-27

3,587

3,741

4

Ottawa-Gatineau

3,004

2,669

-11

3,816

9,444

147

6,820

12,113

78


Gatineau


423

471

11

504

396

-21

927

867

-6


Ottawa


2,581

2,198

-15

3,312

9,048

173

5,893

11,246

91

Peterborough

249

191

-23

48

0

-100

297

191

-36

Québec


769

737

-4

3,276

11,700

257

4,045

12,437

207

Regina


521

399

-23

1,212

1,224

1

1,733

1,623

-6

Saguenay


274

246

-10

324

492

52

598

738

23

St. Catharines-Niagara

870

1,101

27

2,376

1,584

-33

3,246

2,685

-17

Saint John


189

279

48

48

24

-50

237

303

28

St. John's


368

391

6

504

624

24

872

1,015

16

Saskatoon


1,094

887

-19

1,884

720

-62

2,978

1,607

-46

Sherbrooke


202

247

22

1,092

1,560

43

1,294

1,807

40

Thunder Bay


114

149

31

360

144

-60

474

293

-38

Toronto


6,975

9,040

30

21,048

36,168

72

28,023

45,208

61

Trois-Rivières

188

176

-6

348

420

21

536

596

11

Vancouver


4,376

6,171

41

30,408

25,692

-16

34,784

31,863

-8

Victoria


881

795

-10

8,460

1,872

-78

9,341

2,667

-71

Windsor


615

574

-7

648

1,152

78

1,263

1,726

37

Winnipeg


1,783

1,842

3

1,524

3,492

129

3,307

5,334

61

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.

Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value

 

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

View original content with multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2017/08/c8817.html

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