Market Overview

Low Supply Keeps Market below Potential, According to First American Potential Home Sales Model


—The housing market has been underperforming its potential since
May and this month's market performance gap is the largest since
November 2016, says Chief Economist Mark Fleming—

American Financial Corporation
(NYSE:FAF), a leading
global provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk
solutions for real estate transactions, today released First American's
proprietary Potential
Home Sales model
for the month of October 2017.

October 2017 Potential Home Sales

  • Potential existing-home sales increased to a 5.89 million seasonally
    adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR), a 0.4 percent month-over-month
  • This represents a 95.7 percent increase from the market potential low
    point reached in December 2008.
  • In October, the market potential for existing-home sales decreased by
    4.3 percent compared with a year ago, a loss of 262,000 (SAAR) sales.
  • Currently, potential existing-home sales is 481,000 (SAAR), or 8.2
    percent, below the pre-recession peak of market potential, which
    occurred in July 2005.

Market Performance Gap

  • The market for existing-home sales is underperforming its potential by
    7.7 percent or an estimated 455,000 (SAAR) sales.
  • Market potential increased by an estimated 26,000 (SAAR) sales between
    September 2017 and October 2017.

Chief Economist Analysis: Tight Inventory Continues to Put Pressure
on Affordability

"Tight supply and strong first-time home buyer demand continue to be the
dominant factors driving the current state of the housing market.
Existing homeowners remain reluctant to list their homes for sale for
fear of not being able to find a home to buy, keeping supply levels low.
At the same time, a healthy number of potential home buyers continue to
enter the market, so house prices are increasing and affordability is
declining," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American.
"Historically low rates offer some relief in the form of strong
borrowing power, however rates are expected to rise in the months to
come, so if you are renting and thinking of buying, now is the time."

Additional Quotes from Chief Economist Mark Fleming

  • "The housing market's potential for existing-home sales increased
    moderately between September 2017 and October 2017, as mortgage rates
    remained below 4 percent for the fifth consecutive month and the
    economy continued to improve."
  • "The housing market has been underperforming its potential since May
    and this month's market performance gap is the largest since November
  • "Tight supply continues to weigh on the market, depressing actual
    existing-home sales, while the market's potential gains strength. The
    number of homes for sale has declined on a year-over-year basis for 38
    consecutive months."
  • "Active inventory has fallen 7.6 percent, and homes are selling 7.6
    percent faster than a year ago, according to"
  • "The lack of inventory relative to demand is driving the fast pace of
    price appreciation. While low rates have kept consumer house-buying
    power strong, it has not offset rising prices, so affordability has
  • "According to the First
    American Real House Price Index
    , affordability is down 9.6 percent
    in August compared with a year ago."

What Insight Does the Potential Home Sales Model Reveal?

"When considering the right time to buy or sell a home, an important
factor in the decision should be the market's overall health, which is
largely a function of supply and demand. Knowing how close the market is
to a healthy level of activity can help consumers determine if it is a
good time to buy or sell, and what might happen to the market in the
future. That's difficult to assess when looking at the number of homes
sold at a particular point in time without understanding the health of
the market at that time," said Fleming. "Historical context is
critically important. Our potential home sales model measures what home
sales should be based on the economic, demographic, and housing market

Next Release

The next Potential Home Sales model will be released on December 19,
2017 with November 2017 data.

About the Potential Home Sales Model

Background information on the First American Potential Home Sales model
is available here.


Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page
are those of First American's Chief Economist, do not necessarily
represent the views of First American or its management, should not be
construed as indicating First American's business prospects or expected
results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First
American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful
information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate,
current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2017 by First
American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE:FAF) is a leading
provider of title insurance, settlement services and risk solutions for
real estate transactions that traces its heritage back to 1889. First
American also provides title plant management services; title and other
real property records and images; valuation products and services; home
warranty products; property and casualty insurance; and banking, trust
and investment advisory services. With total revenue of $5.6 billion in
2016, the company offers its products and services directly and through
its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2016 and again in
2017, First American was named to the Fortune 100 Best Companies
to Work For® list. More information about the company can be
found at

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