Market Overview

Canadian Housing Starts Trend decreased in September

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OTTAWA, Oct. 10, 2017 /CNW/ - The trend in housing starts was 214,821 units in September 2017, compared to 220,573 units in August 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

Bob Dugan, Chief Economist, CMHC (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

"Housing starts are trending lower in September after increasing for eight consecutive months," said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist. "Nevertheless, new home construction remains very strong as the seasonally adjusted number of starts was above 200,000 units for four straight months."

Monthly Highlights

St. John's
Drivers such as population, income and employment have put downward pressure on new home construction activity. Total housing starts fell 34% in September compared to the prior year. Single-detached starts declined 33%, while multiple starts declined 42%.

Prince Edward Island (PEI)
Tightness in PEI's resale sector continues to cause demand to spill over into the Island's new home market. Starts of single-detached homes were up 93% year-to-date in September, with most of the activity concentrated in the Charlottetown area. Record high levels of international migration continue to support starts of multi-family dwellings, which were up 16% year-to-date.

Quebec
In the third quarter of 2017, the annual rate of housing starts for the province overall reached 43,736 units, up from the level registered for the previous quarter (40,564 units). This last result, as were the relatively high totals for the previous quarters, was attributable to the strong momentum observed in the multi-unit housing segment, particularly in the case of rental apartments, for which starts remained significant in the Montréal and Québec areas. Given the strong activity observed so far, Quebec starts will likely post a gain in 2017.

Toronto
Homebuilders broke ground on fewer homes in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) during September 2017. Total housing starts trended lower by 7 % in September from the previous month led by lower apartment starts. Monthly variations in high-rise starts are typical given delays in getting large scale projects off the ground. Low-rise starts remained strong. The overall pace of new home construction remains stable as strong demand for new homes in the Toronto CMA continues to persist.

Brantford
Single-detached starts were high in Brantford in September. New single-detached homes in Brantford were selling for $550,000 to $700,000 early this year, attracting the growing number of households from Hamilton and the GTA who could no longer afford detached homes in their markets.

London
Both single-detached and multiple housing starts in London CMA posted the highest levels for the month of September since 2006. Strong population growth and recent income gains have strengthened demand for new single-detached homes – encouraging builders to continue to keep single-detached starts elevated over recent months.

Saskatoon
Total housing starts trended lower in September after production of both single-detached and multi-family units slowed. While the pace of construction in the singles sector has been on par with last year, multi-family construction was down 30% after nine months this year. Elevated inventory of completed and unsold condo apartments have remained a drag on this sector. All told, total year-to-date housing starts in September were down 13%, compared to the same period a year ago.

Vancouver
Housing starts in the Vancouver CMA trended downwards in September as fewer multi-family home projects got underway. The high level of housing starts over the past year has led to a record number of units being under construction in the region, leaving little spare capacity to start additional projects. New home construction in the Vancouver CMA is being supported by population growth, a strong local economy, and low financing costs.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada's housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 217,118 units in September, down from 225,918 units in August. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 5.1 per cent in September to 198,910 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 10.7 per cent to 131,388 units in September. Single-detached urban starts increased by 8.2 per cent, to 67,522 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,208 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC's Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, follow us on Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Additional data is available upon request. 

 


Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over


Single-Detached

All Others

Total



September
2016

September
2017

%

September
2016

September
2017

%

September
2016

September
2017

%

Provinces (10,000+)

N.-L.

87

63

-28

15

16

7

102

79

-23

P.E.I.   

26

42

62

32

51

59

58

93

60

N.S.   

128

141

10

331

306

-8

459

447

-3

N.B.   

71

97

37

209

218

4

280

315

13

Atlantic

312

343

10

587

591

1

899

934

4

Qc

771

751

-3

3,950

4,212

7

4,721

4,963

5

Ont.   

2,423

2,594

7

3,291

3,854

17

5,714

6,448

13

Man.   

181

267

48

215

210

-2

396

477

20

Sask.   

206

176

-15

166

113

-32

372

289

-22

Alta.   

1,075

1,209

12

1,264

1,184

-6

2,339

2,393

2

Prairies

1,462

1,652

13

1,645

1,507

-8

3,107

3,159

2

B.C.   

1,003

1,003

-

2,979

2,263

-24

3,982

3,266

-18

Canada (10,000+)

5,971

6,343

6

12,452

12,427

0

18,423

18,770

2

Metropolitan Areas

Abbotsford-Mission

31

40

29

31

134

332

62

174

181

Barrie

55

39

-29

237

16

-93

292

55

-81

Belleville

**

60

##

**

10

##

**

70

##

Brantford

12

36

200

39

0

-100

51

36

-29

Calgary

391

465

19

814

449

-45

1,205

914

-24

Edmonton

469

453

-3

353

631

79

822

1,084

32

Greater Sudbury

19

17

-11

12

6

-50

31

23

-26

Guelph

26

19

-27

47

38

-19

73

57

-22

Halifax

66

76

15

318

280

-12

384

356

-7

Hamilton

33

70

112

106

78

-26

139

148

6

Kelowna

76

91

20

49

338

##

125

429

243

Kingston

19

32

68

0

47

##

19

79

316

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

175

101

-42

256

385

50

431

486

13

Lethbridge

**

44

##

**

20

##

**

64

##

London

136

175

29

42

182

333

178

357

101

Moncton

26

34

31

170

118

-31

196

152

-22

Montréal

266

310

17

2,684

2,713

1

2,950

3,023

2

Oshawa

44

90

105

136

411

202

180

501

178

Ottawa-Gatineau

328

318

-3

591

489

-17

919

807

-12


Gatineau

97

73

-25

109

56

-49

206

129

-37


Ottawa

231

245

6

482

433

-10

713

678

-5

Peterborough

63

26

-59

6

8

33

69

34

-51

Québec

93

64

-31

641

869

36

734

933

27

Regina

55

56

2

70

96

37

125

152

22

Saguenay

17

17

-

29

8

-72

46

25

-46

St. Catharines-Niagara

112

86

-23

47

85

81

159

171

8

Saint John

12

18

50

5

63

##

17

81

376

St. John's

73

49

-33

12

7

-42

85

56

-34

Saskatoon

128

95

-26

80

6

-93

208

101

-51

Sherbrooke

38

22

-42

34

41

21

72

63

-13

Thunder Bay

15

17

13

6

24

300

21

41

95

Toronto

1,001

1,080

8

1,568

1,900

21

2,569

2,980

16

Trois-Rivières

28

22

-21

70

15

-79

98

37

-62

Vancouver

512

501

-2

2,578

1,072

-58

3,090

1,573

-49

Victoria

89

62

-30

175

538

207

264

600

127

Windsor

81

66

-19

35

24

-31

116

90

-22

Winnipeg

158

225

42

190

189

-1

348

414

19

Total

4,647

4,876

5

11,431

11,290

-1

16,078

16,166

1

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.

Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.


Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC


** Belleville and Lethbridge were not metropolitan areas in 2016.


## not calculable / extreme value

 


Preliminary Housing Start Data - Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)


Single-Detached

All Others

Total


August
2017

September
2017

%

August
2017

September
2017

%

August
2017

September
2017

%

Provinces (10,000+)

N.L.

571

611

7

540

210

-61

1,111

821

-26

P.E.I.   

321

328

2

204

612

200

525

940

79

N.S.   

1,463

1,300

-11

1,767

3,515

99

3,230

4,815

49

N.B.   

681

748

10

345

2,492

##

1,026

3,240

216

Qc  

6,431

7,363

14

31,894

32,870

3

38,325

40,233

5

Ont.   

25,653

28,193

10

66,952

46,699

-30

92,605

74,892

-19

Man.   

2,221

3,066

38

4,428

2,520

-43

6,649

5,586

-16

Sask.   

2,167

1,874

-14

4,224

1,356

-68

6,391

3,230

-49

Alta.   

13,091

13,502

3

11,363

14,181

25

24,454

27,683

13

B.C.   

9,834

10,537

7

25,408

26,933

6

35,242

37,470

6

Canada (10,000+)

62,433

67,522

8

147,125

131,388

-11

209,558

198,910

-5

Canada (All Areas)

74,713

81,224

9

151,204

135,895

-10

225,918

217,118

-4

Metropolitan Areas

Abbotsford-Mission

452

379

-16

720

1,608

123

1,172

1,987

70

Barrie

432

496

15

0

192

##

432

688

59

Belleville

568

714

26

120

120

-

688

834

21

Brantford

167

346

107

348

0

-100

515

346

-33

Calgary

4,337

5,118

18

5,052

5,388

7

9,389

10,506

12

Edmonton

6,085

5,083

-16

4,668

7,572

62

10,753

12,655

18

Greater Sudbury

102

134

31

228

72

-68

330

206

-38

Guelph

171

180

5

120

456

280

291

636

119

Halifax

789

667

-15

1,584

3,360

112

2,373

4,027

70

Hamilton

1,133

831

-27

3,504

936

-73

4,637

1,767

-62

Kelowna

579

930

61

5,328

4,056

-24

5,907

4,986

-16

Kingston

348

372

7

228

564

147

576

936

63

Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo

924

981

6

6,516

4,620

-29

7,440

5,601

-25

Lethbridge

505

459

-9

792

240

-70

1,297

699

-46

London

2,095

1,984

-5

2,244

2,184

-3

4,339

4,168

-4

Moncton

226

338

50

144

1,416

##

370

1,754

374

Montréal

2,634

3,126

19

11,633

32,774

182

14,267

35,900

152

Oshawa

1,153

1,087

-6

2,112

4,932

134

3,265

6,019

84

Ottawa-Gatineau

2,180

2,967

36

7,452

5,868

-21

9,632

8,835

-8


Gatineau

375

541

44

2,160

672

-69

2,535

1,213

-52


Ottawa

1,805

2,426

34

5,292

5,196

-2

7,097

7,622

7

Peterborough

236

336

42

324

96

-70

560

432

-23

Québec

823

690

-16

6,948

10,428

50

7,771

11,118

43

Regina

715

675

-6

2,376

1,152

-52

3,091

1,827

-41

Saguenay

217

184

-15

144

96

-33

361

280

-22

St. Catharines-Niagara

1,155

975

-16

708

1,020

44

1,863

1,995

7

Saint John

176

168

-5

0

756

##

176

924

425

St. John's

439

463

5

336

84

-75

775

547

-29

Saskatoon

1,192

973

-18

1,716

72

-96

2,908

1,045

-64

Sherbrooke

183

189

3

144

492

242

327

681

108

Thunder Bay

140

142

1

288

288

-

428

430

0

Toronto

9,194

12,325

34

44,700

22,800

-49

53,894

35,125

-35

Trois-Rivières

165

254

54

2,148

180

-92

2,313

434

-81

Vancouver

4,780

5,344

12

16,212

12,864

-21

20,992

18,208

-13

Victoria

770

662

-14

1,440

6,456

348

2,210

7,118

222

Windsor

798

724

-9

612

288

-53

1,410

1,012

-28

Winnipeg

1,709

2,656

55

4,296

2,268

-47

6,005

4,924

-18

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions. Source:  Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

## not calculable / extreme value.

 

Housing Starts Canada - All Areas, September 2017 (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Logo: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

Logo: Government of Canada (CNW Group/Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)

SOURCE Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

View original content with multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2017/10/c1065.html

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