Market Overview

Comerica Bank's New Texas Index Increases


DALLAS, Sept. 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --Comerica Bank's new Texas Economic Activity Index increased by 0.3 percent in July to a level of 128.9. July's index reading is 33 points, or 35 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 124.3 points for all of 2016, one and three-fifths points below the average for full-year 2015. June's index reading was 128.5.


The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased for the second consecutive month in July, following a small dip in May. The improvement in the July index pre-dates the devastating impact of Hurricane Harvey on the people and businesses of South Texas. Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 26 as a Category 4 hurricane. Because Hurricane Harvey struck Texas late in August, some economic metrics for the state for the month of August will not reflect the full impact of the storm. The major disruptive force of the storm in Texas came from flooding in the Houston area following record-breaking rainfall. Houston is a major industrial center and so it was feared that the flooding could have significant economic consequences for the state. While the flooding in and around Houston was extremely disruptive, and caused scores of fatalities, major industry has already shown remarkable resilience. Petrochemical plants and refineries are coming back online quickly. We expect to see some evidence of disruption from Hurricane Harvey in our August and September Texas Indexes. We also expect to see a net positive contribution to the Texas economy from the recovery and repair effort that is already well underway. Rebuilding effects should be visible in the regional and state level economic data in the fourth quarter of this year and into 2018.

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, sales tax revenues, house prices, and the Baker Hughes rotary rig count. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking center network throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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