Market Overview

JPMorgan Chase Institute's Local Consumer Commerce Index Shows a 2.7 Percent Increase in Consumer Spending Growth

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Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local
Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI)
for March 2017, which showed positive
consumer spending growth in 13 of the 15 U.S. cities analyzed. Overall,
year-over-year consumer spending increased by 2.7 percent in March. For
the first time since January 2015, consumers between the ages of 55 and
64 made a positive contribution to growth.

Notably, every income quintile had larger contributions to growth in
March 2017 as compared to February 2017. Additionally, all product
types, with the exception of non-durable goods, had non-negative growth
contributions.

Data visualization of the changes in local consumer spending growth over
the last 25 months can be found online.

This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Denver,
Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR),
San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual,
de-identified financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic
view of the financial health of the U.S. consumer and the vibrancy of
the places where businesses operate.

"March saw the highest year-over-year growth in local consumer spending
in over two years," said Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the
JPMorgan Chase Institute.
"The growth was widespread and that means
more consumers across all incomes and nearly all age groups are stepping
up their spending. This could be a telling sign for where the U.S.
economy is heading over the summer and the remainder of the year."

Additional key highlights from the latest Index include:

  • Denver grew at 15.8 percent in March 2017, the fastest growth across
    all 15 LCC cities.
  • Consumers in the bottom income quintile saw the largest growth
    contribution amongst all income quintiles, contributing .9 percentage
    points.
  • Large business growth contributions grew from a 0.5 percentage point
    contribution in February 2017 to a 1.3 percentage point growth
    contribution in March 2017.
  • Fuel spending sustained higher than trend growth since November 2016
    and contributed 1.1 percentage points to growth in March 2017.
  • Spending from consumers that reside in the same neighborhood as the
    merchant contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth in March 2017,
    the first positive contribution for these consumers since June 2016.

The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer
spending.

  • The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported
    measures of how consumers think they spend.
  • The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
    areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
    spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
    diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and
    account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
  • The LCCI also presents a more granular view of local consumer commerce
    through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income, business
    size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the location of
    the business. For each lens, we show how different segments
    contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
  • The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have
    not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors
    such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.

Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local
communities and provides a powerful
tool
for city development officials, businesses, investors, and
statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health
of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.

About the JPMorgan Chase Institute

The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good.
Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and
nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and
interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts,
timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to
advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s unique
proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops
analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy,
frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading
thinkers. For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.

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