Market Overview

Automakers Expected to Reach $50 Billion in Revenue in May

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ALG,
the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a
vehicle, projects U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach $50
billion for the month of May, up 1.5 percent from a year ago.

Higher average transaction prices combined with higher sales volumes due
to one more selling day will result in an expected increase of $758
million in revenue for automakers versus May 2016. Additionally,
incentive spending is projected to increase 9.5 percent.

"The growth in transaction prices represents a richer mix of cars and
light trucks being sold across the industry," said Eric Lyman, ALG's
Chief Industry Analyst. "This will be critical for automakers as they
seek to protect revenue and profits as we start to see sales volumes
cool off."

ALG estimates the average transaction price (ATP) for a new light
vehicle was $32,900 in May, up 1.2 percent from a year ago. Average
incentive spending per unit grew by $297 to $3,435. The ratio of
incentive spending to ATP is expected to be 10.4 percent, up from 9.7
percent a year ago.

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer

 

May. 2017
Forecast

 

May. 2016

 

Apr. 2017

 

Percent Change
vs.
May. 2016

 

Percent Change
vs.
Apr. 2017

BMW (BMW, Mini)   $52,200   $51,000   $52,500   2.4%   -0.6%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $62,400   $57,700   $61,700   8.1%   1.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $33,300   $32,800   $33,300   1.5%   0.0%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $36,100   $35,000   $36,100   3.1%   0.0%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $36,700   $36,800   $37,000   -0.3%   -0.8%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $27,600   $27,300   $27,400   1.1%   0.7%
Hyundai   $22,700   $23,800   $22,800   -4.6%   -0.4%
Kia   $22,900   $22,900   $22,900   0.0%   0.0%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $27,700   $27,200   $27,700   1.8%   0.0%
Subaru   $27,900   $27,800   $28,000   0.4%   -0.4%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $31,400   $31,300   $31,400   0.3%   0.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $34,100   $34,100   $34,500   0.0%   -1.2%

Industry

 

$32,900

 

$32,500

 

$33,000

 

1.2%

 

-0.3%

         

Incentive per Unit Spending

Manufacturer

 

May. 2017
Forecast

 

May. 2016

 

Apr. 2017

 

Percent Change
vs.
May. 2016

 

Percent Change
vs.
Apr. 2017

BMW (BMW, Mini)   $4,550   $5,724   $4,424   -20.5%   2.8%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   $4,511   $4,737   $4,557   -4.8%   -1.0%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   $4,250   $4,115   $4,359   3.3%   -2.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   $4,090   $3,596   $4,114   13.7%   -0.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   $4,255   $4,057   $4,238   4.9%   0.4%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   $1,833   $1,756   $1,809   4.4%   1.3%
Hyundai   $3,166   $2,104   $3,135   50.5%   1.0%
Kia   $3,240   $2,734   $3,247   18.5%   -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   $3,867   $3,242   $3,903   19.3%   -0.9%
Subaru   $969   $610   $957   58.9%   1.3%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   $2,323   $2,176   $2,346   6.8%   -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   $4,075   $3,605   $4,008   13.0%   1.7%

Industry

 

$3,435

 

$3,138

 

$3,443

 

9.5%

 

-0.2%

         

Incentive Spending as a Percentage of ATP

Manufacturer

 

May. 2017
Forecast

 

May. 2016

 

Apr. 2017

 

Percent Change
vs.
May. 2016

 

Percent Change
vs.
Apr. 2017

BMW (BMW, Mini)   8.7%   11.2%   8.4%   -22.3%   3.4%
Daimler (Mercedes-Benz, Smart)   7.2%   8.2%   7.4%   -12.0%   -2.1%
FCA (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat)   12.8%   12.5%   13.1%   1.7%   -2.5%
Ford (Ford, Lincoln)   11.3%   10.3%   11.4%   10.3%   -0.6%
GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC)   11.6%   11.0%   11.5%   5.2%   1.2%
Honda (Acura, Honda)   6.6%   6.4%   6.6%   3.2%   0.6%
Hyundai   13.9%   8.8%   13.7%   57.8%   1.4%
Kia   14.1%   11.9%   14.2%   18.5%   -0.2%
Nissan (Nissan, Infiniti)   14.0%   11.9%   14.1%   17.1%   -0.9%
Subaru   3.5%   2.2%   3.4%   58.4%   1.7%
Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)   7.4%   7.0%   7.5%   6.4%   -1.0%
Volkswagen (Audi, Porsche, Volkswagen)   11.9%   10.6%   11.6%   13.0%   2.9%

Industry

 

10.4%

 

9.7%

 

10.4%

 

8.1%

 

0.1%

         

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry
sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's
operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG
is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in
both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle
trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and
financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value
forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk
services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar,
Inc
., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive
pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG
has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the
U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

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