Market Overview

JPMorgan Chase Institute's Local Consumer Commerce Index Shows a 0.7 Percent Decrease in Consumer Spending Growth in January 2017


Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local
Consumer Commerce Index
(LCCI) for January 2017, which showed that
all 15 of the US cities analyzed had lower year-over-year consumer
spending growth rates in January compared to December 2016, and only
four had positive growth rates. Overall, year-over-year consumer
spending declined by 0.7 percent in January. However, as in May 2016,
much of this decline can be attributed to "day of week" (DOW) effects,
as January 2016 had an extra Friday and Saturday.

Data visualization of the changes in local consumer spending growth over
the last 24 months can be found online.

Restaurants experienced a rare decline in January 2017, subtracting 0.2
percentage points from growth. Large business growth remained positive
at 1.1 percentage points, but that growth was more than offset by
declines in small and medium size business growth, which decreased by
0.4 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively.

This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver,
Detroit, Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR),
San Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual,
de-identified financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic
view of the financial health of the US consumer and vibrancy of the
places where businesses operate.

"Although January 2017 experienced a decline in growth, fuel spending
has increased for two consecutive months," said Diana Farrell,
President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase Institute
. "This is a marked
departure from a lengthy period of negative growth in virtually every
month over more than two years. This uptick in fuel spending moderated
an otherwise fairly general decline in local consumer commerce."

Additional key highlights from the latest Index include:

  • New York slowed from a 2 percent growth rate in December 2016 to a 0.3
    percent growth rate in January 2017. Despite this contraction, New
    York retained the highest growth rate of all large LCCI cities.
  • All age groups, with the notable exception of consumers aged 65
    experienced lower growth contribution in January than December.
  • All income groups had lower growth rates in January 2017 relative to
    December 2016.
  • Fuel spending continued to pick up from its trend breaking growth
    contribution of 0.1 percentage points in November 2016, contributing
    0.5 percentage points to growth in January 2017. As before, this is
    largely an effect of rising fuel prices.

The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer

  • The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported
    measures of how consumers think they spend.
  • The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
    areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
    spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
    diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and
    account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
  • The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer
    commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income,
    business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the
    location of the business. For each lens, we show how different
    segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
  • The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have
    not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors
    such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.

Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local
communities and provides a powerful
for city development officials, businesses, investors, and
statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health
of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.

About the JPMorgan Chase Institute

The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good.
Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and
nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and
interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts,
timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to
advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s unique
proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops
analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy,
frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading
thinkers. For more information visit:

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