Market Overview

Arthur D. Little Predicts How Future Mobility Solutions Will Affect Automotive OEMs


Arthur D. Little (ADL) today released a new study, "The Future of
Automotive Mobility." Based on a global survey of 6,500 participants,
including customers, industry players and regulators, the report
examines how the megatrends of electric mobility, car sharing and
autonomous driving are likely to impact on the global automotive
ecosystem and future OEM sales.

The report notes that the future of mobility will no longer depend
primarily on the preferences of customers, but will increasingly be
driven by regulation as cities seek to resolve traffic-generated
problems such as congestion and poor air quality. Electric mobility, car
sharing and autonomous driving solutions all have an important role to
play in meeting these challenges – however, the effect on traditional
OEMs' production volume may not be as severe as some experts have

For example, a key component of autonomous driving will be
"mobility-on-demand" solutions, in which customers use "robot taxis."
Based on real mobility data from almost 100 mega-cities, ADL simulated
the effect of robot taxis upon mobility behavior and car sales. The
findings revealed that even with total market coverage, their effect was
not as bad as the predicted worst case scenario.

Klaus Schmitz, Partner in ADL's Automotive Division, explains:
"In a moderate scenario, in which 11 metropolitan regions implement the
new form of urban mobility by 2030, global vehicle sales will rise to
121 million vehicles a year, a 39% increase compared to today. In a
progressive scenario of 52 pioneer cities, sales will amount to 119
million vehicles, a 34% increase."

The report details how new roles are being created in the
automotive-supplier pyramid, with the shift to the electric drive train
and the increasing importance of software being additional factors to
consider. However, a major challenge for manufacturers is the loss of
direct access to the mobility customer.

Wolf-Dieter Hoppe, author of the study and Associate Director at ADL,
warns: "Millions of individual customers will be replaced by a few very
large, multinational fleet operators. These could take over the dominant
role of OEMs in the ecosystem, as they would have direct customer access
as well as considerable volume power. In particular, this would be a
problem for today's premium manufacturers."

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