Market Overview

March Auto Sales Expected to Reflect Continued Momentum

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ALG,
the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a
vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries,
will reach 1,585,800 units in March, up 0.2 percent from a year ago.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light
vehicle sales is an estimated 16.9 million units for the month, up 1.6
percent from a 16.7 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales,
U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks grew 1.0 percent
with 1,275,806 units.

"Auto sales in the first quarter of 2017 are humming along and
deliveries are in line with our expectations for the full calendar
year," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "March faced a
number of challenges, including winter storms that disabled dealerships
in the Northeast for days, delayed tax refund payments and rising
interest rates. Despite these headwinds, the industry managed to squeak
out a slight gain year over year."

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,511 per
vehicle in March, up 13.4 percent from a year ago, and down 2.1 percent
from February 2017.

The
University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment
is at 97.6 this
month compared to 96.3 in February which indicates continued confidence
in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive
economic conditions include the March unemployment
rate
which came in at 4.7 percent combined with a favorable average
gas price of $2.29
recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for March:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 80.5 percent retail sales and 19.5
    percent fleet versus 79.9 percent retail and 20.1 percent fleet last
    March.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships
    and private-party transactions, may reach 3,635,405, up 2.4 percent
    from March 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

   

March

2017 Forecast

   

March 2016

   

% Change vs.

March 2016

BMW     33,500     34,870     -3.9%
Daimler     33,500     31,715     5.6%
FCA     196,500     200,814     -2.1%
Ford     239,000     253,064     -5.6%
GM     266,000     252,128     5.5%
Honda     144,500     138,221     4.5%
Hyundai     74,700     75,310     -0.8%
Kia     57,000     58,279     -2.2%
Nissan     166,000     163,559     1.5%
Subaru     55,000     49,285     11.6%
Toyota     214,000     219,842     -2.7%
Volkswagen Group     52,600     49,850     5.5%

Industry

   

1,585,800

   

1,582,114

   

0.2%

           

Total Market Share

Manufacturer     March 2017 Forecast     March 2016     February 2017
BMW     2.1%     2.2%     1.9%
Daimler     2.1%     2.0%     2.1%
FCA     12.4%     12.7%     12.7%
Ford     15.1%     16.0%     15.6%
GM     16.8%     15.9%     17.8%
Honda     9.1%     8.7%     9.1%
Hyundai     4.7%     4.8%     3.9%
Kia     3.6%     3.7%     3.2%
Nissan     10.5%     10.3%     10.2%
Subaru     3.5%     3.1%     3.4%
Toyota     13.5%     13.9%     13.1%
Volkswagen Group     3.3%     3.2%     3.2%
           

Retail Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

   

March 2017 Forecast

   

March 2016

   

YoY % Change

BMW     32,429     33,685     -3.7%
Daimler     31,189     29,086     7.2%
FCA     144,100     144,286     -0.1%
Ford     161,500     167,634     -3.7%
GM     198,377     191,548     3.6%
Honda     143,107     136,317     5.0%
Hyundai     56,688     57,191     -0.9%
Kia     47,000     46,855     0.3%
Nissan     123,831     121,928     1.6%
Subaru     52,275     47,361     10.4%
Toyota     186,720     191,286     -2.4%
Volkswagen Group     49,315     44,937     9.7%

Industry

   

1,275,806

   

1,263,479

   

1.0%

           

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer     Incentive per Unit Mar 2017 Forecast       Incentive per Unit Mar 2016       Incentive per Unit Feb 2017       Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2016       Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Feb 2017       Total Spending Mar 2017 Forecast
BMW     $4,514       $5,128       $4,245       -12.0%       6.3%       $151,205,893
Daimler     $4,151       $3,714       $4,111       11.8%       1.0%       $139,062,609
FCA     $4,327       $4,043       $4,362       7.0%       -0.8%       $837,354,067
Ford     $3,983       $3,509       $4,011       13.5%       -0.7%       $951,822,298
GM     $4,892       $4,029       $5,125       21.4%       -4.5%       $1,301,386,486
Honda     $1,941       $1,528       $1,886       27.0%       2.9%       $279,977,235
Hyundai     $2,341       $2,193       $2,342       6.7%       -0.1%       $174,850,961
Kia     $2,945       $2,838       $2,978       3.8%       -1.1%       $167,866,185
Nissan     $4,074       $3,466       $4,080       17.5%       -0.2%       $675,503,028
Subaru     $901       $568       $950       58.6%       -5.2%       $49,302,993
Toyota     $2,208       $2,082       $2,259       6.1%       -2.3%       $472,573,735
Volkswagen Group     $3,808       $3,348       $3,789       13.7%       0.5%       $199,489,449

Industry

   

$3,511

     

$3,096

     

$3,587

     

13.4%

     

-2.1%

     

$5,541,723,555

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of
industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the
company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an
industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the
United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each
year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial
services clients with market industry insights, residual value
forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk
services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital
automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency
about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50
years and in Canada since 1981.

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