Market Overview

January Auto Sales Expected to Be Flat from a Year Ago

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SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,130,500 units in January, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.5 million units for the month, down from an 18.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with 923,369 units.

"Exceptionally strong sales to close out 2016 led to a slow start in January, but additional incentives towards the end of the month helped pick up the slack," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,635 per vehicle in January, up 21.6 percent from a year ago, and down 3.3 percent from December 2016.

"On a year-over-year basis, Honda is gaining about 0.5 percent market share on the continued popularity of its new products in the compact utility and pick up segments," said Lyman.

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.1 this month compared to 98.2 in December which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the December unemployment rate came in at a nine year low of 4.7 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for January:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3 percent fleet versus 80.5 percent retail and 19.5 percent fleet last January.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,139,957, up 7.9 percent from January 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

 

January

2017 Forecast

 

January 2016

 

% Change vs.

January 2016

BMW   20,700   21,390   -3.2 %
Daimler   25,000   26,962   -7.3 %
FCA   141,000   155,562   -9.4 %
Ford   167,000   172,478   -3.2 %
GM   198,000   203,745   -2.8 %
Honda   105,000   100,497   4.5 %
Hyundai   40,500   45,011   -10.0 %
Kia   40,000   38,305   4.4 %
Nissan   103,000   105,734   -2.6 %
Subaru   46,000   41,101   11.9 %
Toyota   160,000   161,283   -0.8 %
Volkswagen Group   40,500   36,430   11.2 %

Industry

 

1,130,500

 

1,148,057

 

-1.5

%

     

Total Market Share

 

Manufacturer

   

January 2017 Forecast

   

January 2016

   

December 2016

BMW     1.8 %     1.9 %     2.2 %
Daimler     2.2 %     2.3 %     2.2 %
FCA     12.5 %     13.6 %     11.5 %
Ford     14.8 %     15.0 %     14.1 %
GM     17.5 %     17.7 %     18.9 %
Honda     9.3 %     8.8 %     9.5 %
Hyundai     3.6 %     3.9 %     3.6 %
Kia     3.5 %     3.3 %     3.2 %
Nissan     9.1 %     9.2 %     9.0 %
Subaru     4.1 %     3.6 %     3.7 %
Toyota     14.2 %     14.0 %     14.4 %
Volkswagen Group     3.6 %     3.2 %     3.8 %
           

Retail Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

 

January 2017
Forecast

 

January 2016

 

YoY %
Change

BMW   19,884   20,061   -0.9 %
Daimler   23,225   25,170   -7.7 %
FCA   101,500   113,274   -10.4 %
Ford   116,000   114,090   1.7 %
GM   157,000   165,686   -5.2 %
Honda   103,500   99,148   4.4 %
Hyundai   29,000   28,522   1.7 %
Kia   32,500   30,364   7.0 %
Nissan   82,000   79,246   3.5 %
Subaru   44,718   39,280   13.8 %
Toyota   137,000   140,255   -2.3 %
Volkswagen Group   37,635   33,893   11.0 %

Industry

 

923,369

 

923,674

 

0.0

%

     

Incentive Spending

 

Manufacturer

 

Incentive
per Unit
Jan 2017
Forecast

 

Incentive
per Unit
Jan 2016

 

Incentive
per Unit
December
2016

 

Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. Jan
2016

 

Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. Dec
2016

Total Spending
January 2017
Forecast

                       
BMW   $ 6,016   $ 4,192   $ 5,956   43.5 %   1.0 % $ 124,114,569
Daimler   $ 4,648   $ 3,592   $ 4,885   29.4 %   -4.8 % $ 116,207,827
FCA   $ 4,408   $ 3,856   $ 4,469   14.3 %   -1.4 % $ 616,627,187
Ford   $ 4,114   $ 3,054   $ 4,156   34.7 %   -1.0 % $ 687,038,184
GM   $ 4,504   $ 4,094   $ 4,653   10.0 %   -3.2 % $ 891,763,957
Honda   $ 2,231   $ 1,672   $ 2,289   33.5 %   -2.5 % $ 234,289,096
Hyundai   $ 2,602   $ 1,904   $ 2,603   36.7 %   0.0 % $ 105,400,435
Kia   $ 3,411   $ 2,823   $ 3,390   20.8 %   0.6 % $ 136,457,746
Nissan   $ 4,335   $ 3,502   $ 4,463   23.8 %   -2.9 % $ 446,508,217
Subaru   $ 1,120   $ 570   $ 1,170   96.6 %   -4.2 % $ 51,539,888
Toyota   $ 2,538   $ 2,093   $ 2,820   21.3 %   -10.0 % $ 406,097,261
Volkswagen Group   $ 4,117   $ 3,155   $ 4,254   30.5 %   -3.2 % $ 165,486,112

Industry

 

$

3,635

 

$

2,990

 

$

3,761

 

21.6

%

 

-3.3

%

$

4,090,739,254

         

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar, Inc.
pressinquiries@truecar.com
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com

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