Market Overview

ALG Finds 2016 Auto Sales Expected to Come in Just Shy of All-Time Annual Record

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SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,600,000 units in December, down 2.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for one less selling day this year than in December 2015, sales may rise 1.0 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.41 million units for the month, down from a 17.52 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 2.2 percent to 1,406,281 adjusted for selling days.

"Barring a last minute push to close out the year, estimated sales will fall just a few thousand units short of the all-time sales record set in 2015," said Eric Lyman, ALG's chief industry analyst. "2016 will close out one of the most impressive runs of sales growth in automotive history. Following the turmoil of the Great Recession, the auto industry led the charge in economic recovery and continues to remain robust, setting the stage for sustained strength and balanced health for the remainder of the decade."

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,673 per vehicle in December, up 19.9 percent from a year ago, and down 1.6 percent from November 2016.

"Although incentive spending remains high, ALG expects production cuts in 2017 to find a better balance with natural demand," said Lyman. "Despite falling short of the 2015 sales record, retail automotive sales continue at a blistering pace, giving the auto industry plenty to celebrate as we close out the year."

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month compared to 93.8 in November which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the November unemployment rate came in at an nine year low of 4.6 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.24 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for December:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 87.9 percent retail sales and 12.1 percent fleet versus 87.5 percent retail and 12.5 percent fleet last December.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 2,693,143 up 0.8 percent from December 2015.
 

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

 

December

2016 Forecast

 

December 2015

 

% Change vs.

December 2015

 

YoY %
Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW   37,000   39,699   -6.8 %   -3.3 %
Daimler   40,000   38,918   2.8 %   6.6 %
FCA   185,000   218,600   -15.4 %   -12.2 %
Ford   232,000   237,606   -2.4 %   1.3 %
GM   297,000   290,230   2.3 %   6.1 %
Honda   148,000   150,893   -1.9 %   1.7 %
Hyundai   66,500   63,508   4.7 %  

8.6

%

Kia   54,500   54,241   0.5 %   4.2 %
Nissan   135,000   139,300   -3.1 %   0.5 %
Subaru   61,000   56,274   8.4 %   12.4 %
Toyota   227,000   238,350   -4.8 %   -1.2 %
Volkswagen Group   54,000   55,951   -3.5 %   0.1 %

Industry

 

1,600,000

 

1,643,289

 

-2.6

%

 

1.0

%
       
 

Total Market Share

 
Manufacturer   December 2016 Forecast   December 2015   November 2016
BMW   2.3 %   2.4 %   2.2 %
Daimler   2.5 %   2.4 %   2.4 %
FCA   11.6 %   13.3 %   11.7 %
Ford   14.5 %   14.5 %   14.2 %
GM   18.6 %   17.7 %   18.3 %
Honda   9.3 %   9.2 %   8.9 %
Hyundai   4.2 %   3.9 %   4.4 %
Kia   3.4 %   3.3 %   3.8 %
Nissan   8.4 %   8.5 %   8.3 %
Subaru   3.8 %   3.4 %   3.7 %
Toyota   14.2 %   14.5 %   14.4 %

Volkswagen Group

 

3.4

%

 

3.4

%

 

3.8

%
     
 

Retail Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

 

December 2016
Forecast

 

December 2015

 

YoY %
Change

 

YoY %
Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW   35,520   38,360   -7.4 %   -4.0 %
Daimler   37,630   36,586   2.9 %   6.7 %
FCA   150,000   168,848   -11.2 %   -7.9 %
Ford   182,923   190,603   -4.0 %   -0.5 %
GM   254,000   250,360   1.5 %   5.2 %
Honda   146,509   149,295   -1.9 %   1.8 %
Hyundai   54,544   51,984   4.9 %   8.8 %
Kia   46,857   50,753   -7.7 %   -4.3 %
Nissan   116,214   117,298   -0.9 %   2.7 %
Subaru   59,511   54,248   9.7 %   13.8 %
Toyota   214,000   222,858   -4.0 %   -0.4 %
Volkswagen Group   50,398   51,003   -1.2 %   2.5 %

Industry

 

1,406,281

 

1,438,179

 

-2.2

%

 

1.4

%

       
 

Incentive Spending

 
Manufacturer  

Incentive per Unit
December 2016
Forecast

 

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
December 2015

 

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
November 2016

 

Total Spending
December 2016
Forecast

BMW   $ 5,815   21.9 %   1.2 %   $ 214,752,557
Daimler   $ 4,607   1.9 %   -4.0 %   $ 184,293,341
FCA   $ 4,291   21.9 %   0.5 %   $ 789,079,658
Ford   $ 4,190   34.1 %   -0.9 %   $ 972,051,418
GM   $ 4,611   13.8 %   -3.6 %   $ 1,369,519,394
Honda   $ 2,154   24.4 %   0.9 %   $ 318,742,226
Hyundai   $ 2,606   31.0 %   -0.5 %   $ 173,329,459
Kia   $ 3,416   20.6 %   1.4 %   $ 186,186,312
Nissan   $ 4,237   15.9 %   -1.6 %   $ 572,049,235
Subaru   $ 1,162   103.4 %   -1.8 %   $ 70,853,630
Toyota   $ 2,723   13.2 %   -2.3 %   $ 618,227,347
Volkswagen Group   $ 4,392   23.4 %   -1.6 %   $ 234,976,376

Industry

 

$

3,673

 

19.9

%

 

-1.6

%

 

$

5,857,183,718

       

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas, 424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com

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